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固定收益每日市场更新

2025-10-22 高志和,吴蒨莹,张钰婧 招银国际 苏吃吃
报告封面

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 This morning, the new ASBBNK 4.155 30 tightened 1bp from initial issuanceat T+60, and ASBBNK Float 30 tightened 10bps from RO at SOFR+90. Thenew GSCCOR 4.25 30 tightened 1bp from pricing at T+77. See ourcommentyesterday. The new GEZHOU 4.25 Perp traded up to 0.1pt higher amid lightflows. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk SOFTBK:FV of the new SOFTBK 61s and SOFTBK 65s to be c7.6% andc8.4%. SOFTBKs were unchanged this morning. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk LGELEC:S&P revised the outlook of LG Electronics to positive from stableon appliance sales and IPO cash, BBB rating affirmed. LGELECswereunchanged this morning. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)39000830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,TW lifers/BBLTB sub curve/HYUELE curve/PETMK curvetightened 1-3bps. There were two-way flows on JP/KR/AU front-end FRNsfrom PBs. SOFTBK 26-35s were 0.2pt lower to 0.2pt higher. See commentsbelow on the FV of SOFTBK’s newissue. Japanese insurance hybrids andAT1s edged 0.1pt firmer albeit with light flows. Yankee AT1s opened in acautious tone in London. There was recovery in BNP papers after theprevious plunge amid political headlines. Chinese IG benchmarks were 1-2bps tighter. In Greater China higher-beta space, NWDEVL 28-31s were upby 0.6-1.5pts, but NWDEVL Perps were down by 0.3-1.3pts. New WorldDevelopment denied media rumors that the company was preparing a liabilitymanagement exercise for its perpetual securities. FAEACO 12.814 Perpgained 0.4pt. Media reported yesterday that a few holders of the FAEACOPerp had received the 18 Oct’25 distribution. FAEACO 12.814 Perp hasgained c20pts in the past two weeks, and we maintain buy recommendationon this bond. RMs werebuying MTRC Perps, which increased up to 0.2ptfirmer, whereas the new CWAHK 30 remained heavy and lowered another0.3pt. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27-29s decreased by 0.4-0.6pt afterMoody’s downgrade. FTLNHD 26/FUTLAN 28/LNGFOR 27-32s were 0.1ptlower to 0.2pt higher. YUZHOU 27 lost 0.7pt. In Southeast Asia, VLLPM 27-29s led the space and rose 3.2-4.4pts. VEDLN 28-33s were up by 0.1-0.4pt.GLPSP 28/GLPSP Perps were 0.3-0.4pt higher. In LGFV space, there were mixed, light two-way flows. RMs and AMswereon-and-off topping up IG USD and AAA-guaranteed issues. Flows on higher-yielding papers remained sporadic and driven by multi-asset and/or retailinvestors. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.00%), Dow (+0.47%) and Nasdaq (-0.16%) were mixed on Tuesday. UST yield was lower onTuesday. 2/5/10/30 yield was at 3.45%/3.56%/3.98%/4.55%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 SOFTBK:FV of the new SOFTBK 61s and SOFTBK 65s to be c7.6% and c8.4% SoftBank Group proposes to issue 35.5NC5.5 and 40NC10 Reg S USD subordinated bonds (S&P: B+) and37NC7 EUR subordinated bonds. The proceeds will be for general corporate purposes, including primarily newinvestments, repayment of borrowings and maintenance of cash position. We viewthe FV of the new SOFTBK 61 (first call Apr’31) to be c7.6% vs IPT at 7.875%-8%, and the newSOFTBK 65 (first call Oct’35) to be c8.4% vs IPT at 8.5%-8.625%.Our valuations are based on SoftBankGroup’s senior SOFTBK 31/35 trading at 6.0%-6.8% YTW and applies c150-160bps subordination adjustment,and compared to its peer RAKUTN 6.25 Perp (first callable Apr’31, S&P: B) trading at 7.0% YTC. The bonds incorporate step-up mechanisms. For the SOFTBK 61, the coupon resets and steps up on 29 Apr’31to 5yrUST+initial spread+25bps, with subsequent resets 15 years thereafter on 29 Apr’46 (+30bps) and 29Apr’51 (+100bps). The SOFTBK 65 follows the same structure with resets on 29 Oct’35, 29 Oct’50 and 29Oct’55. The bonds will not receive accounting equity treatment under IFRS, but will receive 50% equity creditfrom S&P and JCR until the first reset date. SoftBank Group has track record of calling its bonds on the firstcall date, including SOFTBK 6 Perp in Jul’23, and three JPY long-dated bonds due in 2041-43 werecalledduring 2021-23. SoftBank Group is an AI-centric strategic investment holding company with an investment portfolio valued atcUSD269.6bn in Jun’25. The portfolio composition includesArm (51% of total), SVF1/SVF2/LatAM Funds(27%), SoftBank Corp (9%), T-Mobile/Deutsche Telecom (7%) and others incl. JPY0.7tn in Nvidia (6%).76%of the investment portfolio consists of listed shares totaled cUSD205bn, providing liquidity to support its debtservicing capacity, in our view. In Jun’25, SoftBank Group held cash of cUSD25.3bn and standalone net debts of cUSD45.9bn. SoftBank Groupis disciplined in maintaining its LTV ratio at 17.0% in Jun’25, which is lower than its internal target of below25%.While SoftBank Group has completed refinancing for the current fiscal year ending 31 Mar’26, the offshore andonshore bond maturity schedule shows concentration in 2028-31, representing a medium-term refinancingrequir