固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 Asia IG space tightened 1-3bps overall this morning. Japanese insurancebonds were 0.1pt higher. We also saw buyersfor ACAFP/MTRC/PTTGCPerps. NWDEVL 4.5 05/19/30 rose 1.5pts, while EHICAR 26 was down by0.9pt. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk GSCCOR:FV of the new GSCCOR 30s to be T+85bps vs IPT at T+115bps.See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:Short-term pains, long-term gains. CMBI expects thePBOC to further cut LPRs by 10 bps and RRR by 50 bps in Nov-Dec’25; theMoF may expand fiscal support to households to stimulate consumption andhousing sales. CMBI forecasts that GDP may slow down to 4.6% in 4Q25with full-year GDP growth at 5%. See comments from CMBI economicresearch below. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,BNP AT1s dropped up to 0.7pt in the long end, and lowered 0.1-0.3pt in the front end. As per the US court verdict, BNP Paribas is liable tohuman rights abuses in Sudan.While damages of only USD20.75mn wereawardedto 3 plaintiffs, the market is concerned that the ruling may exposeBNP to more similar litigations. The spillover to other French banks likeACAFP/SOCGEN was nonetheless limited despite some knee-jerk selling inACAFP 7.125 Perp. The rest of Yankee AT1s and insurance hybrids, as wellas their Japanese counterparts were largely stable amid better-buying out ofAsia from AMs and PBs. China/Korea/Japan/AU IG benchmarks were 1-2bpstighteramid two-way flows on front-end FRNs LGENSO/KOROIL/BCLMHK/WSTP.TW lifers space was 2-5bps tighter with better buying onSHIKON 35/FUBON 35. We saw a mixed session in Greater China higher-beta credits. There was better buying on FOSUNI 27-29, which closed 0.1-0.2pt higher.EHICAR 7 09/21/26 was 1pt higher. The NWDEVL complexedged up another 0.2-0.7pt.On the other hand, the new CWAHK 5 ⅞10/22/30closed 0.2pt lower amid better selling from RMs.SHUION 5.506/29/26 was down by 0.1pt. See our comment on SHUIONyesterday.InChinese properties, YUZHOU 27 was 1pt higher. LNGFOR 27-32s increasedby 0.2-0.5pt. However, COGARD 26-31s/VNKRLE 27-29s were 0.3-0.6ptlower. Moody’s downgradedChina Vanke’s rating toCaa2 from Caa1, andthe rating of Vanke’s MTNs to Caa3 from Caa2. We view that the downgradeto have limited impact on Vanke and belated, as Vanke had largely passedthrough the maturity wall in 1H25, thanks to the shareholder’s loan from SZMetro, and thenext Vanke USD bonds will mature in Nov’27. In SoutheastAsia, the PETMK curve was 3-5bps tighter on the long end with buying fromChinese accounts. VLLPM 27-29s rose 1.8-3.1pts. VEDLN 28-33s recovered0.4-0.9pt. GARUDA 31s were 0.6-1.3pts lower. LGFVs were a touch firmer amid better-buying flows. RMs were buying USD IG names, while asset managersand some tactical investors were buying higher-yielding issues across CNH and USD issues. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+1.07%), Dow (+1.12%) and Nasdaq(+1.37%) were higher on Monday. UST yield was lower onMonday. 2/5/10/30 yield was at 3.46%/3.58%/4.00%/4.58%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 GSCCOR:FV ofthe new GSCCOR 30s to be T+85bps vs IPT at T+115bps GS Caltex proposes to issue 5-year 144A/Reg S USD senior unsecured bonds (Baa1/BBB+/-). We view theFV of the new GSCCOR 30s to be T+85bps vs IPT at T+115bps, in view of GSCCOR 28s is trading at T+65bpsand adjusted for 2 years longer in tenor. GS Caltex plans to use to proceed to pre-fund debt maturity in 2026. GS Caltex is one of Korea’s largest integrated refining and petrochemical companies, with a refining capacityof 800,000 bpd. It refines,processes, and markets petroleum products, petrochemicals, base oils, andlubricants worldwide. GS Caltex is a 50:50 joint venture between GS Energy and Chevron. In 1H25, GS Caltexreported revenue of KRW21.8tn, an operating loss of KRW141.4bn mainly due to drop in oil prices. 1H25EBITDA was KRW351.0bn.Meanwhile, it recorded a net operating cash inflow of KRW428.9bn and capex ofKRW410.1bn in 1H25, resulting in free cash inflow of KRW18.8bn. We take some comfort on S&P’s expectationon the stabilizing ofcrude prices from 3Q25, while limited additions to global refining capacity should support amodest recovery in refining margins. As of Jun’25, GS Caltex held cash and cash equivalents of KRW1.2tn and had net debt of KRW3.7tn. As perour calculation, netdebt to LTM EBITDA rose to 4.7x in Jun’25 from 2.5x in Dec’24, driven by lower LTMEBITDA and partially offset by lower gross debt.We view GS Caltex’s offshore bond maturity profile asmanageable, it has two outstanding USD bonds, each USD300mn, maturing in Jan’26 and Aug’28. China Economy:Short-term pains, long-term gains China’s economy notably slowed down in 3Q25 despite a lower base last year. Retail sales growth fell to arecent low, with durable goods spending moderating as trade-in support faded. Fixed asset investment saw thefi