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固定收益每日市场更新

2025-10-09 高志和,吴蒨莹,张钰婧 招银国际 邓轶韬
报告封面

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 This morning, we saw better buying on front-end JapaneseIGnames. Therewere two-way flows in the LGFV space with better buying on higher-gradeLGFVs, while better selling on higher-yielding LGFVs. VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29gained 2.3pts. VNKRLE 29 were 0.6pt higher. EHICAR 26 was down by 1pt. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk HANSEN/HSBC: Negative impact to CET1 ratio resulting from privatizationof Hang Seng Bank to be temporary.We should monitor if privatization ofHang Seng Bank one of the steps towards spinning off HSBC’s Asia Pacificoperations.There were two-way flows on HSBC front-end AT1s thismorning, and the other HSBC bonds were largely stable. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk BABA:Alibaba announced that it has completed its exchange offer forBABA 4.875 05/26/30, BABA 5.25 05/26/35 and BABA 5.625 11/26/54.BABAs and China TMT benchmarks were unchanged this morning. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterdaywas another quiet day as mainland China was still out on holiday.AMs were rebalancing positions for cash across the spaces.Spreads werelargely unchanged in Asia IG space. There was cash-parking demand onfront-end FRNs of Australian banks/Korean corps and financials. In Japanspace,we saw better buying from PBs on MARUB/MITCO/MITHCC/MIZUHO/MUFG/NTT.In TW lifers space, PBsbought CATLIF 5.95 07/05/34and NSINTW 5.45 09/11/34, while the rest of the space was quiet. FAEACO12.814Perp continued its growth momentum and rose another 6pts.LASUDE 5 07/28/26 gained 2.7pts. Lai Sun Development completed anHKD3.46bn (cUSD444.6mn) loan refinancing. MTRC Perps was 0.1pt higher.NWDEVLs were 0.5pt lower to 0.2pt higher. In Chinese properties, GRNLGR28-31s lowered 0.2-0.6pt. VNKRLE 27-29s were 0.1pt lower to 0.1pt higher.In Australia, FMGAU 4 3/8 04/01/31 increased by 1.2pts.In Southeast Asia,GARUDA 31s rose 4.5pts on back of the news that Garuda will receiveUSD1.4bn cash injection from Danantara. GLPSP was 0.1pt lower to 0.1pthigher. Media report that GLP has received interests from Middle Eastinstitutions for a strategic investment, and the size of fund raise is expectedto be cUSD1bn. VLLPM 27-29s dropped 1-3.2pts. IHFLIN 27-28s were 0.6-0.7pt lower. VEDLN 28-33s were down by 0.1-0.4pt. See our commentyesterdayon the recommendation of VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30.French AT1sbouncedback by up to 0.3pt as the market continued to digest thedevelopment of political headlines. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.58%), Dow (-0.00%) and Nasdaq (+1.12%) were mixed on Wednesday. 2/5 years UST yieldwashigher on Wednesday,yet 10/30 years UST yield was lower.2/5/10/30 yield was at3.58%/3.72%/4.13%/4.72%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 HSBC:Negative impact to CET1 ratio resulting from privatization of Hang Seng Bank to be temporary This morning, HSBC announced the privatization of its 63.4% owned Hang Seng Bank at HKD155 per share,representing c30% premium of over the last close of Hang Seng Bank. The total consideration is cUSD13.6bnand will be funded with HSBC’s internal resources.The privatization plan is a surprise to us despite we sawactive M&A activities in European banking sector. There are many speculations on the rationale of privatizationincluding the concerns on Hang Seng Bank’s exposure to CRE. We would argue against the “bail-out”arguments, taking cues from the 30% premium HSBC will pay for the privatization after shares of Hang SengBank were up 24.5% YTD. Indeed, HSBC has been putting HK as one of its strategic priorities.As per thepress release for the privatization plan, HSBC will retain the brand of Hang Seng Bank. Over the years, therehave been lots of market talks on spinning off HSBC’s Asia Pacific operations. We should monitor if privatizationof Hang Seng Bank one of the steps towards that direction. In terms of the immediate impact to HSBC, the privatization will lead HSBC’s CET1 ratio to drop 125bps from14.6% as of Jun’25 on a pro-forma basis.Nonetheless, we believe that the negative impact to its capital ratioto be temporary.As per HSBC, it expects its CET1 ratio to restore to the target range of 14.0-14.5% throughorganic capital generation. It will also suspend share buyback for the coming 3 quarters. We maintain neutralon HSBCs on valuation. Amongst major European banks, weprefer BACRs and INTNEDs for better risk returnprofile. Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced) News and market color Onshore primary issuances suspend during the National Day HolidayChinese consumer spending slowed during the recently concluded eight-day Golden Week holiday[ADANI]Adani Group seeks INR300bn (cUSD3.4bn) to fund Navi Mumbai airport's second terminal[BABA]Alibaba announced that it has completed its exchange offer for BABA 4.875 05/26/30, BABA5.25 05/26/35 and BABA 5.625 11/26/54[GARUDA]Garuda will receive USD1.4bn cash injecti