固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 This morning, we saw selling flow for HSBC/MIZUHO/SUMIBK 5-6yr floaters.PTTGC 51-52s and TOPTB 49 were 0.7-2pts higher. PTTGC launchedtender offers for its PTTGC 51-52s. FAEACO 12.814 Perp was 1.1pts lower.In LGFVs,there were buyers for CNH short-term bonds. ZHOSHK 28 waslargely unchanged. See below. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk FUBON:FVofthenewFUBONtobeT+95-100.CATLIFs/NSINTW34/SHIKON 35 were unchanged this morning. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:PMI shows mild reflation in upstream sectors. CMBIexpects another 10 bps LPR and 50 bps cut in 4Q25. Policy may alsostrengthen transfer payments to low-and middle-income households, thesocial security system and multi-child families to more effectively boosthousehold consumption. See belowfor comments from CMBI economicresearch. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Last Friday,the recent IG new issues were overall unchanged to 1bp wider.We saw buying flows from AMs on HOKKEL 4.587 09/04/30, and two-wayflows from RMs and PBs on OCBCSP 4.55 35s.The other new BCOAVI 4 ¼31/JERA4.544 30s/MITSCO 4.398 30s were unchanged.TW lifersSHIKON/NSINTW widened 2-3bps. MEITUA 28-30s/BABAs widened 1-3bps.See our comment on MEITUA’s 1H25 deteriorated profitabilitylast Friday.CNMDHL 26-30s tightened 1-4bps. See our analysis on28 Aug’25. ZHOSHK5.98 01/30/28tightened 2bps. See our commentarylast Friday. NWDEVL 27-31s were 0.6-0.9pt higher. LIFUNG 5 ¼ PERP climbed 1.4pts. In Chineseproperties, VNKRLE 27-29s/CSCHCN 27/YLLGSP 26 were 0.1-0.6pt higher.As for Asia FRNs, we saw selling flow on front-end Chinese banks/leasingnames like BCHINA/CHEVBK/BCLMHK/AGRBK.Korean corps such asLGENSO/HYNMTR/HYUELE were 1-3bps wider. S&P changed SAMTOTrating outlook to negative from stable, increasingfallen angel risk. SAMTOT5 ½ 07/18/29 widened 2bps. In Japan space, there was PBs selling flow onMUFG/NOMURA curves. Japanese insurance hybrids edged 0.3pt higher ledby the recent FUKOKU 55 and drivenby demand from onshore Japan, whilstYankee AT1s were largely stable amid slight recovery in French namesSOCGEN/BNP. In SEA, GLPSP PERPs and GLPSP 9 ¾ 05/20/28 werecontinuing the growth momentum and rose 1.5-3.5pts, post the headline ofanup-to USD1.5bn investment from a subsidiary of the Abu DhabiInvestment Authority to support its next stage of growth. TOPTB 43s/48/50were 3bps tighter to 1bp wider. GARUDA 6 ½ 12/28/31 rose 1.5pts. In LGFVs, the flowsfrom Chinese clients were largely bullish and skewed tobuying recent CNH papers. On the other hand, international investors weremore inclined to sell, having taken into account FX hedging costs. Meanwhile,we saw demand gradually coming back in high-yielding USD LGFV papers. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (-0.64%), Dow (-0.20%) and Nasdaq (-1.15%) were lower on last Friday. US Jul’25 Core PCEPrice Index was +0.3% mom/+2.9% yoy, same as the market expectation. UST yield was lower while 10/30 yrUST yield was higher on last Friday. 2/5/10/30 yield was at 3.59%/3.68%/4.23%/4.92%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 FUBON:FV of the new FUBON to be T+95-100 Fubon Life proposes to issue 10.25yr USD T2 bond (S&P/Fitch: BBB+). This is Fubon Life’s first USD T2 bondissuance and the coupon of this T2 will be FFL and non-deferrable.The new FUBON is callable 10 years afterthe issuance and within the three-month window preceding the maturity.Fubon Life will use the proceeds tosupplement and strengthen its regulatory capital adequacy ratio.We consider the FV of the new FUBON to beT+95-100, in view of its peers CATLIF 5.95 07/05/34 and CATLIF 5.3 09/05/39 (callable Sep’34), adjusted fortenor and new issue premiums. While we view Fubon Life’s closest peer is Cathay Life (CATLIF) in terms of asset size, we view the creditprofile of Fubon Life is slightly better in viewof higher profitability and capital adequacy, despite they both arerated the same at BBB+.As we discussed in ourAsia Credit Outlook 2025, Asian lifer is an emerging segmentin the course of full adoption of IFRS 4, 9, and 17. We see more debut names in the segment and new issuepremium from debut issuers. Fubon Life is Taiwan’s 2ndlargest life insurer by total assets (TWD6.0tn as of Jun’25), after CATLIF’s TWD8.8tn.Despite its smaller size, Fubon Life’s credit profile is slightly better than that of CATLIF in view of Fubon Life’shigher profitability and capital strength. In 1H25,its ROAE was 8.7%, higher than CATLIF’s 5.7%. Fubon Life’sRBC ratio is also higher at 405% as of Jun’25, well above CATLIF’s 328% and the regulatory minimum of 200%,while its equity-to-asset ratio of 9.9% exceeded both CATLIF’s 8.0% and the regulatory requirement of 3%. During the 1H25, TWD appreciated by c10% against the USD, negatively impacting the capital positions of TWlifers as the value of their USD denominated bond po