Polyester Data Weekly Report: Cost-driven Valuation Strengthening
PolyesterDataWeeklyReport： Cost-drivenValuationStrengthening GTJAFuturesResearchInstituteXiaoqinHe（Analyst） AdvisoryCode：Z0017709 JiayinQian（Contacts） QualificationCode：F03124480Date：Sunday,August10,2025 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint ThisWeek'sPXOutlookSummary:LimitedCostSupportwithContinuedWeakTrend Unilateraltrendisweak;focusonwarehousereceiptpressure,aswellasthemaincontract'srolloverandmonthlyspreadreversearbitrage. Thisweek,China'sPXoperatingratestoodat81.1%(+1.2%),whileAsia'soveralloperatingratereached73.4%(+0.5%).TherearenonewmaintenanceplansforChina'sPXunitsinAugust,butbothFuhaiChuangandDongyingWeilianhaverestartplans,withloadlevelsofexistingunitsexpectedtoincrease.Overseas,SaudiArabia's1.34million-tonPXunithasalreadyrestarted.AtthebeginningofAugust,China'sWeilianChemical's2million-tonPXunitrestarted;inthemiddleofthemonth,FujianPetrochemical's800,000+800,000-tonunitswillrestartoneafteranother.Thailand's530,000-tonunitandJapan'sENEOS190,000+420,000-tonunitsaregraduallyrestarting.Duringtheweek,Japan'sIdemitsu400,000-tonPXunithadanunplannedshutdown.Overall,Asia'sPXsupplyisexpectedtograduallyreboundinthefuture.TheoperatingrateofPTAunitsremainedat75.3%(-4.4%),andisexpectedtocontinuedeclininginAugust.JiaxingPetrochemical's2.2million-tonunithadascheduledshutdownatthebeginningofthemonth;YishengNewMaterials'7.2million-tonunitreduceditsloadby10%duringtheweek;FormosaChemicals'1.5million-tonunithadashort3-dayshutdown.Lookingahead,YishengHainanwillstarta3-monthshutdownfromthe10th,andYishengDalianplanstoconductmaintenancerecently.Additionally,attentionshouldbepaidtopossiblemaintenanceoflong-unmaintainedunitsofXinFengmingandHengliPetrochemical.ThePXNspreadfellfrom$290/tonto$250/tonduringtheweek,stayingatamediumlevel.ThePX-MXspreadroseandthenfell,droppingfrom$130/tonto$116/ton,butremainsatarelativelyhighlevel,whichisexpectedtokeeptheoperatingenthusiasmofshort-processunitshigh. SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures2 Thisweek'sPTAviewsummaryDemandremainsinnegativefeedback,unilateralweakness. Theunilateraltrendisweak;maintainthemedium-termstrategyofgoinglongonMEGandshortonPTA.ExecuteapositivespreadtradeontheSeptember-Januaryspread.ForPTA,supplyisdecreasingwhiledemandisincreasing:YishengNewMaterialshasraiseditsoperatingrate,INEOShaslowereditsoperatingrate,andYishengHainanisconductingmaintenanceasscheduled.Onthedemandside,polyesteroperatingratehasrisento88.8%.However,themarginalreductioninsupplyhasnotledtoariseinbasisorarecoveryinprocessingfees.Thespotbasisremainsweak,stayingintherangeof-10to-15yuan/ton.Despitethemarket'sconcernovertheissueofoldcargoesintheSeptembercontract,whichcontinuestoaffectthevaluationofthe09contract,itisnecessarytobevigilantabouttheimpactofunplannedshutdownsofPTAplantsunderlowprocessingfeesonPTAmonthlyspreads.Fromthecostperspective,theweaknessincrudeoilpriceshasexacerbatedtheweakvaluationofPTA.Incontrast,thestrengthincoalpriceshasdrivenMEGtomaintainarelativelyfirmtrend.Continuetofocusonthelong-MEGandshort-PTAhedgepositioninthemediumterm. SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures3 Thisweek'sMEGviewsummary:SidewaysMarket,LongMEGShortPTA Theunilateraltrendisoscillatingweakly;maintainthemedium-termstrategyofgoinglongonMEGandshortonPTA.TakeprofitsontheSeptember-Januarypositivespreadtradewhenitapproaches0,andmaintainoperationswithintherangeof-50to0;payattentiontotheJanuary-Mayreversespreadtrade.Thisweek,bothsupplyanddemandofethyleneglycol(MEG)increased.Cargoeswhosearrivalwasdelayedduetoearliertyphoonsgraduallyarrivedthisweek,andportinventoriesareexpectedtorisefurther.Onthedomesticfront,ZhejiangPetrochemical's900,000-tonnewplantisexpectedtorestartnextweek,anddomesticoperatingrateswillrebound;inaddition,coal-basedMEGplantsstillenjoysubstantialprofits,withoperatingratesmaintainedataround75%.Onthedemandside,thepolyesteroperatingrateroseslightlymonth-on-monthto88.8%.InAugust,therewillbelittlechangeinpolyesteroperatingload;AnhuiYoushunNewMaterials'300,000-tonnewpolyesterplanthasbeenputintoproduction,drivinganoverallincreaseinoutput.However,fromtheperspectiveofenddemand,bothdomesticandforeigntradeordersareweak,whileproductinventoriesremainhigh.Themarketisalsoconcernedabouttheimpactofmandatorysocialsecuritycontributionsonthecostsofterminalfactories.Overall,thenear-termdrivingforcefortheindustrialchainisweak. Nevertheless,consideringthebroadercontextofanti-involutionandanti-deflation,coalpricescontinuetostrengthen,andfar-monthcontractshavecertainupwardpotential.RegardingtheJanuarycontract,itfacessupplypressurefromtherestartofSatellitePetrochemical'splant,aswellasthecommissioningofnewplantsbyYulongPetrochemicalandBASFZhanjiang.However,thefarendmaybesupportedbythecoalindustry,soattentioncanbepaidtotheJanuary-Mayreversespreadtrade.Theshort-termtrendoftheSeptember-Januaryspreadisdifficulttojudgefornow:ononehand,thepressurefromnon-mainstreamwarehousereceiptspersists;ontheotherhand,asdeliveryapproaches,thepatternoflowinventoriesmayeasilyleadtoamismatchbetweenpositionsandwarehousereceiptvolumes.Ther