Polyester Data Weekly Report：Tight supply, canlender spread maintains strong

Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCost Collapse, Limited Upside for PolyesterPX: For the calendar spread positive carry trade, exit at high levels. It's a market with high-level sideways oscillation on aunilateral basis. Hold long PXN positions and long PXshort PTA positions.Recently, supply has increased while demand has decreased. PX supply has been continuously rebounding recently. This week, Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its operatingload, and Liaoyang Petrochemical restarted production. The operating rate rose to 82.1% (+4.1%). Next week, Shenghong Refining &Chemical will increase its load, and CNOOCHuizhou's 1.5-million-ton unit will restart. In South Korea, PX units of SK Incheon, S-oil, Hanwha, etc. are expected to increase their operating loads. In terms of demand, theoperating rate of PTA has declined. This week, the 1-million-ton Nengtou unit and the 1.5-million-ton Formosa unit restarted, while Yisheng Dahuafurther extended itsmaintenance time and reduced its contractual supply by 30%. The 3-million-ton Dushan Energy unit is under maintenance. In June, Honggang Petrochemical's new unit willstart production. Pay attention to the production start-up progress.In terms of the calendar spread, last week, along with the reduction in PTA plant supply, both the PX and PTA calendar spreads reached new highs. It is recommended to reducepositions at high levels and wait for an opportunity to participate again when there is a decline in the future.PTA: It's a market with high-level sideways oscillation on a unilateral basis, with limited upside. For the calendar spread positive carry trade, exit at high levels. Hold long PX shortPTA positions.Recently, currently, PTA plants' supply reduction is countering the downstream polyester production cuts. Filament plants have carried out two consecutive rounds of productioncuts, with a cumulative reduction of 24%. Bottle chip and staple fiber plants have also successively announced joint production-cut and price-supporting plans. The overallpolyester operating load has dropped to 91.7% (-2.2%). The rigid demand for PTA has weakened. However, Yisheng Dahuahas reducedits contractual supply by 30%, the basisof PTA plant shipments is relatively high, and the overall spot supply is tight.As long as there is no significant collapse in the cost-end oil price, PTA is expected to experience a high-level sideways oscillation market. However, in the long run, the oil priceis somewhat weak, and downstream weaving orders are sluggish, forming a negative feedback pattern in the industrial chain. Overall, the upside is limited. It is recommended totake profits at high levels for the calendar spread.MEG: The upside is limited, but the calendar spread and basis remain strong. Take profits and reduce positions for long PTA short MEG positions.In terms of valuation, the MEG processing profit has significantly rebounded, especially for coal-based units. However, the overall supply is tight. This week, on the supply side,the operating rate of coal-based units has dropped to 57% (-4%). But with the start-up of Sichuan Zhengdakai, the restart ofQianxi Coal Chemical's 30-unit and YulinChemical's 60-unit, the future coal-based supply will gradually recover. For oil-based units, the 900,000-ton unit of Satellite Petrochemical is under maintenance, and unitssuch as Yangba's 34-unit and Tianjin Petrochemical's 42-unit have restarted. In terms of imports, the arrival volume will slightly increase to 115,000 tons next week.The tight-balance pattern of ethylene glycol from June to July has promoted the spot basis and calendar spread. Port inventories are low, and there is an easy risk of a squeeze.Therefore, reverse trades on the calendar spread and basis should be carried out with caution. 2 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCONTENTS01PTA02Valuation and ProfitSupply and Demand with InventoryValuation and ProfitSupply and Demand with Inventory End Users: Weaving,ClothingValuation and ProfitSupply and Demand with Inventory PX Polyester, PolyesterShort Fiber/PFValuation and ProfitSupply and Demand with Inventory Ethylene Glycol/MEGValuation and ProfitSupply and Demand with Inventory 3 Para-Xylene (PX)1 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesSource of Information: CCF,LongzhongInformation,TonghuashuniFinD,GuotaiJunanFutures Research60070080090010001100USD/TONMX:China:CFRPX:China:CFRToluene: China:CFR-400-300-200-1000100200300400basisspot/futurePX main contact consecutivePX spot price in CNYbasis2025-05-302025-05-272025-05-23-500-400-300-200-1000100200300400元/吨PX_5-9PX_9-1PX Valuation: Month Spread High Position Liquidation for Profit-TakingZhengzhou Commodity Exchange PX Futures ForwardCurve: Supply and demand tight, near-term strong and far-term weakMTM profit-taking at highs, re-enter long spread onopportunitiesUSD prices strengthen, significant increase in spreadbetween domestic and international marketsPXN returned to $280/ton, with Japan and South Korea's plantload increasing