Polyester Data Weekly Report：Cost-driven Valuation Strengthening

Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCost-driven Valuation Strengthening•Cost continues to underpin PX's upward valuation; the unilateral trend is expected to be strong. Hold calendar spread long positions, and the PXN spread is strengthening. The core driver of thecurrent market remains on the cost side.•Terminal polyester and textile demand has entered the seasonal off-season. However, for PX, affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, multiple PX units have been shut down formaintenance, leading to an overall tightening of supply in the Middle East. This has caused a slight tightness in PX supply-demand in other Asian regions, impacting China's PX import volume.•Maintenance is expected forFuhaiChuang andDongyingWeiliannext week, and the market is also pricing in the July maintenance plan for Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX units. The domestic PXoperating rate is expected to further decline.•In other Asian regions, South Korea's SK Incheon, S-Oil, and Hanwha plan to increase loads, while SK Ulsan plans to restart. PTA's load is expected to further decline, andDongyingWeilianisexpected to undergo maintenance. Overall, PX supply will continue to be tight from June to July, and the calendar spread is unlikely to weaken significantly.•Unilateral prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to take profits on calendar spread long positions at highs, and hold long PX-short PTA positions. The PTA market remains cost-•Over the weekend, the U.S. participated in the Israel-Iran conflict and struck Iranian nuclear facilities, with the risk of further war escalation not ruled out, which could lead to another surge incrude oil prices. Therefore, cost support for unilateral PTA remains strong.•Fundamentally, PTA has shifted to an inventory accumulation pattern. The newHonggangPetrochemical unit has been put into operation. In the polyester sector, bottle chip and staple fiberfactories will begin centralized production cuts in July, weakening PTA's rigid demand and gradually entering an inventory accumulation pattern.•The basis continues to strengthen, and spot procurement costs remain high. Downstream users face limited price increase momentumand weak production-sales conditions, leading tocontinuous inventory accumulation.•The unilateral trend is strong, but the upside space may be limited; consider long PX-short MEG hedging.•In terms of domestic supply, as prices of crude oil, methanol, etc., rise, profit margins of naphtha integrated units and MTOunits have been significantly compressed. However, profits from coal-based and externally purchased ethylene-based glycol remain high, so the overall load still has room to increase.•This week,HengliPetrochemical restarted, CNOOC Shell increased its load, Far Eastern United and Sichuan Petrochemical reduced their loads, coal-basedYulinChemical restarted, and InnerMongoliaRongxinincreased its load, with the overall load rising to 70%.•In the future, coal-based units such as GuangxiHuayi20,Sinochem30, YangmeiShouyang22, and XinjiangTianying15 will gradually restart in July, and domestic supply is expected to further•In terms of imports, multiple Iranian units overseas have been shut down, and the impact on China's imports is expected to bereflected in the far month, with limited near-term impact. PX:PTA:driven.MEG:recover. 2 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCONTENTS01PTA02Valuation and ProfitSupply and Demand with InventoryValuation and ProfitSupply and Demand with Inventory End Users: Weaving,ClothingValuation and ProfitSupply and Demand with Inventory PX Polyester, PolyesterShort Fiber/PFValuation and ProfitSupply and Demand with Inventory Ethylene Glycol/MEGValuation and ProfitSupply and Demand with Inventory 3 Para-Xylene (PX)1 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesSource of Information: CCF,LongzhongInformation,TonghuashuniFinD,GuotaiJunanFutures Research60070080090010001100USD/TONMX:China:CFRPX:China:CFRToluene: China:CFR-400-300-200-1000100200300400500600basisspot/futurePX main contact consecutivePX spot price in CNYbasis2025-06-202025-06-172025-06-13-500-400-300-200-1000100200300400元/吨PX_5-9PX_9-1PX Valuation:Unplanned supply reduction, monthly spread rises againZhengzhou Commodity Exchange PX Futures ForwardCurve: Supply and demand tight, near-term strong and far-term weakMTM profit-taking at highs, re-enter long spread onopportunitiesUSD prices strengthen, significant increase in spreadbetween domestic and international marketsPXN returned to $280/ton, with Japan and South Korea's plantload increasing. 65006700690071007300750077006200640066006800700072007400CNY/ton Special report on Guotai Junan Futures750770790810830850870890美金/吨2025/5/302025/6/62025/6/132025/6/20638630624620615610607603598593589586500520540560580600620640660680700美金/吨2025/5/302025/6/62025/6/132025/6/20160180200220240260280300PXNSGXM1PXNSGXM2PXNSGXM3PXNSGXM4PXNSGXM5PXNSGXM6PXNSGXM7PXNSGXM8PXNSGXM9PXNSGXM10PXNSGXM11PXNSGXM12美金/吨2025/5/302025/6/62025/6/132025/6/20-80-