固定收益每日市场更新

PLEASE READ THE AUTHORCERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEThe Asset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025We hope you found our commentaries and ideashelpful. We seek toelevate our efforts and value-add further in the coming year. We highlyappreciate your support to us in Sell-Side Analysts of the polls of “TheAsset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025”.Thank you for yoursupport!The new NACF Float 29/NACF 4.375 30 tightened 4-5bps from ROs thismorning. SHIKON/NSINTW 34-45s were 2-4bps tighter. LASUDE 26 was up0.4pt. CKPH/CKINF Perps were down 0.4-0.5pt. NOMURA Perp was down0.1pt.VNKRLE:1H25 net loss to widen up to RMB12bn from 1H24’s RMB10bn.We maintain buy on VNKRLEs which were down 0.1pt this morning. Seebelow.China Economy/Global Economy:CMBI expects China’s export growth todecelerate from 5.9% in 2024 to 2% in 2025 while importgrowth may mildlyslow down from 1.1% to 0.5%; the RMB may appreciate against the USDwith the USD/RMB rate dropping from the current 7.15 to 7.1 by year end.Meanwhile, CMBI expects sovereign yields are expected to decline modestlyacross most economies.See below for comments from CMBI economicresearch.Trading desk comments交易台市场观点Yesterday, the recent new NTT 4.622 28/NTT 5.171 32/NTT 5.502 35 andNTT Float 30 were under better selling from Chinese AMs/Props and closedunchanged to 1bps wider. The new NSANY 32-35s were 0.2-0.3pt higher.NACF priced 3.5yr floating rated bond at SOFR+68 (IPT at SOFR+110) and5yr fixed rated bond at T+50 (IPT at T+90). Meanwhile in KR, LGENSO 27-35s were 1-5bps tighter. In Chinese IGs, BABA/MEITUA/TENCNT/XIAOMI30-31s were under onshore buying and closed 1-3bps tighter. In financials,NANYAN/BNKEA 32-34s were 2-5bps tighter. SUMIBK/MIZUHO Float 30-31s were 1-2bps tighter. In insurance, SHIKON/NSINTW 34-35s were 3-5bpstighter. Meanwhile, NIPLIF 55s/NOMURA 7 Perp were down 0.1pt. In AT1s,INTNED 7.25/UBS 6.85/HSBC 7.05 Perps were 0.1-0.3pt lower. In HK,LASUDE/LIHHK 26 were up 0.3-0.8pt. REGH Perp declined 0.7pt. NWDEVLPerps/27-31s were unchanged to 0.5pt lower. NWD has missed self-imposeddeadline for completing HKD15.6bn (cUSD2bn) loan led by Deutsche Bank.MTRCPerps were 0.1pt lower.In Chinese properties,ROADKG 28-30s/Perps were unchanged to 0.5pt higher. See our comments on14 Jul ’25.YLLGSP 26/VNKRLE 29 were unchanged to 0.1pt higher. See our commentson Yanlord’s further buy backof YLLGSP 26 on14 Jul ’25. Last night, Vankeannounced that it expects RMB10-12bn (cUSD1.4-1.7bn) net loss for 1H25.CMBI Credit CommentaryFixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 (852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk(852) 3900 0801JerryWang(852)3761 8919CMBI Fixed Incomefis@cmbi.com.hk 2See our comments below. In SE Asia, GLPSP Perps were 0.3-0.6pt higher. VLLPM 27-29s were 0.1pt lower to0.4pt higher.In LGFVs, there were active two-way flows on CNH names such as WFBHIN 6.9 28s/ZOUCAO 6.9 27s and USDnames such as ZKCONS 6.8 28s/TAIANH6.9 28s. In SOE perps, SPICPE Perp was 0.1pt lower.LastTradingDay’s Top MoversTop PerformersPriceChangeTop UnderperformersPriceChangeGARUDA 6 1/2 12/28/3176.91.1CHINLP 2 1/2 06/30/3579.9-0.8LASUDE 5 07/28/2650.70.8TAISEM 3 1/810/25/4176.2-0.8GLPSP 4.6 PERP48.00.6KORGAS 6 1/4 01/20/42107.3-0.7ROADKG 5.9 09/05/2827.90.5SINOPC 4 1/4 04/24/4388.1-0.7GWFOOD 3.258 10/29/3083.30.5REGH 6 1/2 PERP21.3-0.7MarcoNews Recap宏观新闻回顾Macro–S&P (-0.33%), Dow (-0.63%) and Nasdaq (-0.22%) were lower on last Friday. Trump announced 30%tariffs on goods from EU and Mexico, effective 1 Aug’25. UST yield was higher on last Friday, 2/5/10/30 yield at3.90%/3.99%/4.43%/4.96%.Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点VNKRLE: 1H25 net loss to widen up to RMB12bn from 1H24’s RMB10bnChina Vanke expects a net loss of RMB10-12bn (cUSD1.4-1.7bn) in 1H25, compared with a net loss ofRMB9.9bn (cUSD1.4bn) in 1H24. The 1H25net loss was due to (i) significantly decline in real estatedevelopment projects’ settlements scale and the gross profit margin remained at a low level; (ii) additional assetimpairment, and (iii) bulk asset and equity transactionsbelowtheir book values. As per Vanke, it has obtainednew financing and refinancing totaled RMB24.9bn (excluding shareholder’s loans) and repaid public debtstotaled RMB16.5bn during 1H25. There is also no offshore public debts due before 2027.We have buy recommendations on VNKRLEs,in view of Vanke’s more manageable offshore debt maturitiesand strong financial support from the SZ Metro.YTD, Vanke obtained six shareholder’s loans totaledRMB21.1bn from SZMetro (including RMB12.5bn unsecured loans since Apr’25)at an interest rate of 2.34%.There was also a media report last month that the Shenzhen government approved SZ Metro’s plan toconsolidatethe financialsof Vanke. Meanwhile. we view the current valuations of VNKRLEs already priced inVanke’s expected 1H25 net loss given the slow recovery of the property markets.With the strengthenedsupport from SZ Metro as evidenced by the provision of unsecured loans, we consider Vankea survivor of thesector and VNKRLEs