瑞穗日报

Jul 09, 2025 -Lookingthroughsomeofthe"missingdata"fortheMayprint,concernsareperhaps leaning towards the medical related services andmaintenanceofdwellinggiventheirhousingrelatedconcerns. Three Take-Aways 1)USequitiesmostlylowerasTrumpdoubleddownontariffs. 2)RBA held rates in a surprise move as members showedpreferenceformoredata;were-calibratethetrajectoryforaRBAcutinAugustandanothercutinQ4. -Lookingahead,were-calibratethetrajectoryforaRBAcutatthenextmeetinginAugustandforaskipinSeptemberandtodeliveronemorecutinQ4. 3)BNM likely to lean towards a 25bps insurance cut to pre-emptivelyleanagainsttariff-ledheadwinds. China:PricePressures -Weanticipateamodest uptickof0.1%YoYinconsumer prices,drivenbyhigherfoodandfuelcosts.High-frequencydatasuggeststhatwholesaleagriculturalpriceshavebeenrisingYoYsinceearlyJune,ledbyfruitandfreshvegetableprices.Additionally,fuelpricesincreased4%MoMduetohighercrudeoilpricesamidmilitarytensionsintheMiddleEast.Although global oil prices have partially reversed on a tentativeceasefire,thedeclinehasyettobereflectedindomesticfuelpricesinJune.Meanwhile,deflationary pressure is expected to persist inproducerprices,as producer price index in the Manufacturing PMIsurveyremainedincontractionaryterritory(at46.2)albeitrecoveringfromlowsinAprilandMay. MACROTHEME:DoublingDown? -EvenasTrumpdoubleddownonUS'tariffposturing,risksentimentsweresubdued,butnotspooked.USequitiestradedmixed,followingyesterday'ssell-off,despiteTrump'scommentsthathewouldoffernoadditionaldelaysoncountry-specifictariffs.Countriesthatwerenotpartofthe14recipientsoftheunilateraltariffswerenotspared. -TrumpexpressedfrustrationovertheEU'staxesandfinestargetingUStechnologyfirms,andthathemightsetaunilateraltariffrateforEUwithinthenexttwodays. -Elsewhere,TrumpmaystilltagimportsfromIndiawithanadditional10%levyfortheirparticipationinBRICs,despitehisearliercommentsthatanUS-Indiatradedealwasimminent.Themoresubduedfallinequitymarkets likely underscores reservations on Trump's pressuretacticstoforceoutadealonfavourableterms. BNM:InsuranceCut? -We attribute a 70%probability for BNM to proceed with aninsurance25bpscuttoday.BNM'spolicystancenoticeablytookadovishturninMaywhenthestatementremovedthecharacterisationofmonetarypolicystanceas"remain[ing]supportive"oftheeconomyandhadnoted that balance of risks to the growth outlook is tilted to thedownside. -Nonetheless,Trump said he was still planning sectoral-tariffs,includingdrugs,semiconductorsandmetals.Inparticular,hesaidhewouldimposea50%rateoncopperproducts. -Indeed,growthwoeshaveheightenedamidUStradeantagonismgivenexportsectorconstitutingarelativelylargerproportionofGDP(at71.4%ofGDP).Industrialproductiongrowthhasbeenmoremodestrelativetoitsownhistoricalaverageandexportsgrowth.Thelattermaybeduetofront-loadingandsubjecttofadinginthemonthsahead. Yields(2Y:-0.3bp;10Y:+2.0bp;30Y:+0.9bp) -Front-endUSTyieldsfell,whilethelonger-endrose. Equities(Nasdaq:+0.0%;S&P500:-0.1%;Dow:-0.4%) -USequitiestradedmixed. -WhileweexpectinflationtomovehigherwiththeSSTrevision,thetargetednatureof theSSTrevisiontargetingdiscretionarygoods(e.g.premiumfooditems)andservices(e.g.beautyservices)couldalleviatecostoflivingpressures.Overall,weestimatea0.4-0.6pptincreasetotheheadlinenumberontheSSTrevisionstartinginJuly.Thiswouldbumptheheadlinenumberuptoaroundorslightlyabove'16-'19averages. FX(DXY:+0.0%) -TheUSDtradedmixed.AUDledgainsonRBA'ssurprisehold,whileJPYledlosses,headingabovemid-146levels,amidhigherUSTyields.EURwas middle of the pack,mostly buoyant above 1.17 levels.Elsewhere,USD/SGDmostlytradedaround1.28handle. RBA:LittleMoreInformation -However,we see some risks for BNM preferring to hold as theexpansionof SST scope to include leasing and rental services mayexacerbateFoodAwayfromHomeinflation,whichhasbeenseeinganaverageof4.5%YoYincreaseYTD.RON95subsidyrationalisationwouldaddtopricepressures,althoughweexpecttheearliestimplementationdatetobeQ4.Furthermore,domesticspendingoughttoholdupamidbuoyantconsumersentimentandsupportivewagegrowth. -TheRBAhadasurpriseratehold.Underthenewregime,thereisalsorevelationofa6-3votebehindthisdecision.Nonetheless,itismoreimportanttonotethatthejudgementthatthey"couldwaitforalittlemoreinformationtoconfirmthatinflationremainsontracktoreach2.5 per centon asustainable basis".This mayperhaps alsospeaktothelackofafullsetofforecastatthismeeting. -Allsaid,BNMhavetheconditionstoremainonhold,butweareinclinedtowardsexpectingacutbytheBNMtopre-emptexternalheadwindsespeciallyas they remain as one of the last ASEAN-5 countries tomaintainpolicy. -Atthepressconference,GovernorBullockwasalsoclearthatthiswasamatteroftimingratherthandirection.Shealsoalludedtothemonthlyinflation print being more volatile and less complete.WithintheMayprint,shesaidthathousingconstructioncostwasalittlehigherthanexpected. RESEARCHTEAM Vishnu Varathan | Serena Zhou | Tan Boon Heng | Tan Jing Yi MARKET COMMENTARY DISCLAIMER THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT AND IS NOT INTENDED AS SUCH.Unless stated other