瑞穗日报

Days to reciprocal tariffs:16FXClose (NY)USDJPY148.88EURUSD1.1601GBPUSD1.3384AUDUSD0.6514DXY98.6USDCNY7.1825USDCNH7.1845USDHKD7.8500USDSGD1.2853USDKRW1387USDTWD29.28USDINR85.82USDIDR16260USDMYR4.242USDPHP56.72USDTHB32.41USDVND26135*Open is as at 8am HKT/SGT.148.76FX OUTLOOK------1.16081.33931388--7.8497261350.65204.2521.28467.1825--32.57--China:AnUN-VarnishedView-China’s H1 growth outrun at 5.2%YoY may ostensibly suggesteconomicmomentumunfetteredbyUStradethreatsandtariffassaults.Butsucharosyviewisflatteredbyaconspiracyoffactorssuchasthecoverofstimulusandfront-loadingaheadoftariffs.Whereasunderlyingriskspersist amid unevenrisks/uncertainties.All of which demand that Beijing keeps atunwaveringstimulus.-Moreover,unmitigateddeflationrisksandunrelentingUS’geoeconomicassaultswarnofabrupt,adversedemandshocksintheoffing.Andamidunevengrowthdrivers,suchaconundrumunderpinstheneedforBeijing’scontinuedfiscalandmonetarybackstop.-Crucially,chronicbalancesheetdragandP&L/cashflowpressurespointto stifled growth multipliers suppressed,requiring far morestimulustobackstopgrowth.-Rates/Yields:Againstthisbackdrop,expectChinarates/CGByieldstobeexceptionallysuppressed.-CNH:But any corresponding pressure on CNH from nominalnegative“carry”oughttobecheckedby;-realspreadsshiftsturningmoresupportiveofCNHand;-capitalcontrolsimpedingunfettered“carry”.BankIndonesia:ResumeEasing-We affirm our expectations for Bank Indonesia to resume easing attoday'smeetingfollowingthereductionofleviesfrom32%to19%.ThisdevelopmentmeanstariffsonIndonesia'sgoodswillnowbeoneofthelowestintheregion,andtherelative tariffadvantageoughttoprovidesomebreathing space and support for the IDR.While the USD hasregainedsome ground in recent weeks,IDR remains~0.3%strongeragainsttheUSDsincetheJunemeetingandcouldgainfurtherfollowingthelowertariffsandBIwouldlikelyseize theopportunitytocutrates.Afterall,tariffs/traderisksisfarfromover.Notably,theoverhangofa10%tariffoverlayform BRICs membership could diminish this relative tariffadvantage.-Inaddition,whilethetariffsreductioniscertainlywelcomed,Indonesia'spledgestobuymoreenergyandagriculturalcommoditiesarelikelytoseeadeteriorationinIndonesia'sgoodsbalance,asIndonesiahistoricallyhasatradesurpluswiththeUS.ThetradesituationcompoundsthedragontheIDR,asfiscaldevelopmentsappeartoconfirmjittersonIndonesia'sfiscalhealth.FinMinIndrawatihadstatedearlierthismonththatthe2025revenuetargetisunlikelytobemetwhilespendingneedsloomlarge.Thefiscaldeficit estimate was revised upwards to 2.78%of GDP(prev:2.53%),citingtheneedtofinancekeygovernmentprogrammesaimedataddressingtheimpactofavolatileglobalmarket.Meanwhile,domesticgrowthwoesremainsconcerning,asjobssubsidiesweredoubledinJuneroundofstimulus,inreplacementofelectricitytariffs.Inflationrisksremaincontained.-OnFX,acutbyBIisunlikelytoseeIDRheadingabove16,350asBIbackstopsexcessiveweaknesswhiletariffdevelopmentsoughttoprovidesupportforthecurrencythoughralliesmayberestrained. (Temporary delay extended to 31 July)Daily %Δ+0.79%147.00-150.50▼0.54%1.1500-1.1700▼0.32%1.3300-1.3500▼0.47%0.6460-0.6580+0.55%98.0-99.2+0.15%7.1700-7.2200+0.17%7.1700-7.2200+0.00%7.8300-7.8500+0.25%1.2790-1.2940+0.00%1375-1405▼0.02%29.1029.60▼0.21%85.50-86.70+0.09%16100-16350▼0.28%4.240-4.280+0.11%56.50-57.20+0.06%32.3-32.9+0.05%26050-26300ForecastOpen*growthandunrelentingexternal ActualExp.Prior5.2%/1.1%5.1%/0.9%5.4%/1.2%4.8%5.3%6.4%6.8%5.6%6.3%2.8.%3.6%3.7%-0.3%/-0.6%---0.2%/-0.5%2.9%3.6%4.0%2.7%/2.9%2.6%/2.9%2.4%/2.8%52.750.447.5ActualExp.Prior5.50%5.50%2.6%2.7%2.7%2.5%2.6%2.7%3.0%0.1%-0.2%14.0b14.0b RESEARCHTEAMVishnu Varathan | Serena Zhou | Tan Boon Heng | Tan Jing Yi MARKET COMMENTARY DISCLAIMERTHIS DOCUMENT IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT AND IS NOT INTENDED AS SUCH.Unless stated otherwise in the country specific distribution information below, this document has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements in anycountry or jurisdiction designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition ondealing ahead of the dissemination ofinvestment research. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not purport to make any investment recommendations.This document has been prepared solely for the information of the intended recipients. Recipients in any jurisdiction shouldcontact your usual Mizuho contact in relationto any matters arising from, or in connection, with this document.This document has been prepared by Mizuho Bank, Ltd., Singapore Branch (“MBSG”), a full bank, exempt capital markets services entity and exempt financial adviserregulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”), Mizuho Bank, Ltd., Hong Kong Branch (“MBHK”), a licensed bank regulated by the Hong Kong MonetaryAuthority, with business address at 12/F, K11 Atelier, 18 Salisbury Road, Tsim Sha Tsui, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Mizuho Bank, Ltd.,Sydney Branch, an authorised deposit-taking institution regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and holder of an Australian financial se