瑞穗日报

Days to reciprocal tariffs:14(Temporary delay extended to 31 July)FXClose (NY)Daily %ΔUSDJPY148.58+0.47%147.00-150.50EURUSD1.1596▼0.39%1.1500-1.1750GBPUSD1.3416▼0.04%1.3300-1.3550AUDUSD0.6488▼0.61%0.6450-0.6570DXY98.7+0.35%98.0-99.4USDCNY7.1817+0.04%7.1700-7.2200USDCNH7.1844+0.06%7.1700-7.2200USDHKD7.8491▼0.01%7.8300-7.8500USDSGD1.2859+0.26%1.2790-1.2960USDKRW1391+0.00%1380-1405USDTWD29.40▼0.02%29.2029.70USDINR86.08+0.16%85.60-86.70USDIDR16331+0.33%16250-16450USDMYR4.250+0.08%4.230-4.280USDPHP57.26+0.31%56.90-57.80USDTHB32.52▼0.04%32.3-32.8USDVND26155▼0.01%26050-26300*Open is as at 8am HKT/SGT.ForecastOpen*148.44FX OUTLOOK------1.16151.34321392--7.8484261530.64984.2481.28547.1839--32.46---The<2kemploymentgains(disappointingexpectationsof20k)gainsalongsidea0.2%-ptjumpinunemploymentto4.3%notonlysuggeststhattheRBAcancomfortablycutinAugust.ButperhapsarguesthatitoughttohavedonesoinJuly.-Admittedly,the"noise"fromlargeshiftsbetweenfull-timeandpart-timeemploymentisnothelpful.Butitdoesnotdistractfromthejobs/householdcashargumentforcuts.Softerconsumerinflationexpectationsbackthepolicyview.China: Decoding China's Fiscal Push: From refinancing toinvestment-LoangrowthinChina,relativetototalsocialfinancing,hasbeennotablyunderstatedthis year,as local governments issue special refinancingbondstorepayhiddendebt.TheRMB1.7tnissuedinH1isequivalentto13%oftheloanincreaseduringthesameperiod.-Ontheotherhand,localgovernmentsissuedanetRMB2.1tninnewspecialbonds in H1,nearly triple the amount from a year earlier.Infrastructureprojectsaccountedfor43%ofthefunding raised,withafocuson transportation and municipal/industrial park.Property-relatedprojectsrankedsecond.Theseprojects,combinedwithanotherRMB2.3tninplanned issuance for H2,are expected to support fixed assetinvestmentamidcurrentheadwinds.-Julytypicallyseessubduedgovernmentbondfinancing,andamajoreasingmovebythePBoCisunlikelyinthecomingweeks.WhiletheJulytaxseason may temporarily tighten liquidity,the central bank is well-positionedtomanageshort-termpressureswithitstargetedtools.Inourview,riskstoCGByieldsremainbroadlybalancedinthenearterm.Malaysia Q2 GDP: Downside Risks-WeexpectMalaysiaQ2GDPtodecelerateto4.0%YoYfromQ1's4.4%.Mining&quarrying could contract further(Q1:-2.7%)as miningindustrialproductionforApr-Mayis-8.1%lowercomparedtoayearago(Q1:-3.2%).Meanwhile,manufacturinglookstomoderate(Q1:4.1%)asmanufacturingindustrialproductionsloweddownmateriallyto2.8%YoYinMay(comparedto4.5%averageinJan-April)asactivityinexport-orientedclustersslowed,likelyareflectionofexporters'concernsoverUStariffs.Nonetheless,domestic-orientedmanufacturingclustersremainsupportedandbuoyantconsumersentimentshouldmeanresilientservicesgrowth(Q1:5.0%),givenhighermedianwagesandincreasesinminimumwageseffectiveFeb2025.-Agricultureshouldaccelerate(Q1:0.6%YoY),aspalmoilproductionforApr-Mayperiodis7.8%YoYhigher,comparedtoa5.9%contractioninQ1.Construction(Q1:14.2%)shouldremainresilientasmomentumofprivateconstructionworkscontinue.Privateconstructionworks(>60%ofconstructionworkdone)havebeenregisteringdouble-digitgrowthsinceQ1'24withconstructionloansappliedinJan-May35%highercomparedtoayearago.-Allin,Malaysia'sislikelytomissitsoriginalfullyeargrowthtargetof4.5-5.5%.Withtariffsheadwindsandassociateduncertainty,weestimatefull-yeargrowthtocomeinataround4.1%. ActualExp.Prior13.0%/8.0%5.0%/---3.9%/1.6%4.3%/2.0k4.1%/20.0k4.1%/-1.1k221k233k228k0.6%0.1%-0.9%0.6%0.3%-0.1%15.9-1.0-4.02.0%/2.3%2.0%/2.3%1.9%/2.3%¥153.1b¥353.9b-¥638.6bActualExp.Prior4.2%4.0%5.4%/9.3%-1.1%/6.6%---$298m1300k/1390k1256k/1394k61.4/--60.7/58.1--5.0%/4.0%--19.8b3.3%3.3%3.5%3.4%3.3%3.3% RESEARCHTEAMVishnu Varathan | Serena Zhou | Tan Boon Heng | Tan Jing Yi MARKET COMMENTARY DISCLAIMERTHIS DOCUMENT IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT AND IS NOT INTENDED AS SUCH.Unless stated otherwise in the country specific distribution information below, this document has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements in anycountry or jurisdiction designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition ondealing ahead of the dissemination ofinvestment research. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not purport to make any investment recommendations.This document has been prepared solely for the information of the intended recipients. Recipients in any jurisdiction shouldcontact your usual Mizuho contact in relationto any matters arising from, or in connection, with this document.This document has been prepared by Mizuho Bank, Ltd., Singapore Branch (“MBSG”), a full bank, exempt capital markets services entity and exempt financial adviserregulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”), Mizuho Bank, Ltd., Hong Kong Branch (“MBHK”), a licensed bank regulated by the Hong Kong MonetaryAuthority, with business address at 12/F, K11 Atelier, 18 Salisbury Road, Tsim Sha Tsui, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Mizuho Bank, Ltd.,Sydney Branch, an authorised deposit-taking institution regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulatio