瑞穗日报

Days to reciprocal tariffs:15(Temporary delay extended to 31 July)FXClose (NY)Daily %ΔUSDJPY147.88▼0.67%147.00-150.50EURUSD1.1641+0.34%1.1500-1.1700GBPUSD1.3422+0.28%1.3300-1.3500AUDUSD0.6528+0.21%0.6460-0.6580DXY98.4▼0.23%98.0-99.2USDCNY7.1785▼0.06%7.1700-7.2200USDCNH7.1799▼0.06%7.1700-7.2200USDHKD7.8497▼0.00%7.8300-7.8500USDSGD1.2826▼0.21%1.2790-1.2940USDKRW1390+0.00%1375-1405USDTWD29.41+0.43%29.1029.60USDINR85.94+0.15%85.50-86.70USDIDR16278+0.11%16100-16350USDMYR4.246+0.11%4.240-4.280USDPHP57.08+0.64%56.50-57.30USDTHB32.53+0.39%32.3-32.9USDVND26158+0.09%26050-26300*Open is as at 8am HKT/SGT.261560.65234.2451.28347.1812--32.48--ForecastOpen*148.01FX OUTLOOK------1.16351.34101388--7.8498-AndthatwouldbetherealtragedyfortheFedanditspolicy.SomeredemptioncouldberealizediftheTrumpAdministrationbacksdownfromharassingthe Fed and perhaps an(ostensibly non-political)candidatesuchasWallerisappointed.Meanwhile,weremainwatchfulofpotentialstructuraldentstotheUSDnarrative.Yields(2Y:-4.8bp;10Y:-2.6bp;30Y:-0.8p)-USTyieldcurvebullsteepenedafterthesofterPPI.Equities(Nasdaq:+0.3%;S&P500:+0.3%;Dow:+0.5%)-USequitiesroseacrosstheboard.FX(DXY:-0.2%)-USDsoftened againstmostG10 peers amid thewhipsawonPowellcomments.JPYledgainsasUSD/JPYdroppedtoward148.China: Show Me the Money!-The PBoC added some RMB444.5bn into the banking system viareverserepooperations.Whilethelargestinfusioninthepastfivemonths,thisisnottobemistakenforanaggressiveeasingmove.-Rather,it is consistent with a dynamic liquidity management toensurecomfortablyamplefundsinthebankingsystem.Thisbalancingactensures the broader objectives of overall CNH stability whilstensuringsufficientlyaccommodativemonetary(and)/creditconditions.-Thebiggerchallengenowistosnapdeflationaryforcesemanatingfromprofitmargincannibalism(inresponsetounsustainableexcesscapacity).PresidentXi’sfocusonthebottomlineisnowthe“showmethemoney”headline.Hong Kong Markets: Watch for Non-Linear Liquidity Sting!-Inlessthanthreeweeks,theHKMAhasintervenedaggressively,consequentlydraining~HK$87bnfromtheaggregatebalance.ThishashalvedtheaggregatebalancefromHK$173-174bn,seenformostofJune,toaroundHK$86.4bn.Crucially,theHKMAhaseffectivelydrainedsometwo-thirdsoftheexceptional“excess”liquidity*.Nonetheless,aswehighlighted**earlierthisweek,theimpactonHIBORthusfarhasbeendisproportionatelymuted.-3MHIBORhasmerelytickedup29-30bpsincethestartofheavyHKMAintervention(27thJune),comparedtoanear230bp^drop(fromnear4%to~1.7%)since the anomalous liquidity deluge.In otherwords,aggressively draining~67%[HK$87bn out of HK$130bn ofanomalousliquiditysurge]of“excess”liquidityhardlyrestored13%[30bpsoutof230bp]oftheratesdrop.-ThisisnoreasonforcomplacencyaboutHKMA’sstifledimpactonrates.To the contrary,this should warn of a more abrupt(compensatory)rates re-sensitization sting once key liquiditythresholdsaretriggered.Ourbestguessisthatthestartofthismoreemphaticre-sensitizationkicksinatHK$60-80bn,andcertainlybelow.Thatcould mean just a couple of HKMA interventions away if themagnitudeoftheseinterventionsisintheballparkofHK$10-15bneach. ActualExp.Prior5.25%5.50%5.50%2.6%2.7%2.7%2.3%2.5%2.6%2.6%2.7%3.0%0.3%0.1%-0.2%16.2b14.0b14.0bActualExp.Prior5.0%-3.5%--1.7%4.1%4.1%20.0k-2.5k234k227k0.1%-0.9%0.3%-0.1%-1.0-4.02.0%/2.3%1.9%/2.3%¥353.9b-¥638.6b RESEARCHTEAMVishnu Varathan | Serena Zhou | Tan Boon Heng | Tan Jing Yi MARKET COMMENTARY DISCLAIMERTHIS DOCUMENT IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT AND IS NOT INTENDED AS SUCH.Unless stated otherwise in the country specific distribution information below, this document has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements in anycountry or jurisdiction designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition ondealing ahead of the dissemination ofinvestment research. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not purport to make any investment recommendations.This document has been prepared solely for the information of the intended recipients. Recipients in any jurisdiction shouldcontact your usual Mizuho contact in relationto any matters arising from, or in connection, with this document.This document has been prepared by Mizuho Bank, Ltd., Singapore Branch (“MBSG”), a full bank, exempt capital markets services entity and exempt financial adviserregulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”), Mizuho Bank, Ltd., Hong Kong Branch (“MBHK”), a licensed bank regulated by the Hong Kong MonetaryAuthority, with business address at 12/F, K11 Atelier, 18 Salisbury Road, Tsim Sha Tsui, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Mizuho Bank, Ltd.,Sydney Branch, an authorised deposit-taking institution regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and holder of an Australian financial serviceslicence (“MBAU”), Mizuho Securities AsiaLimited (“MHSA”), licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and/or Mizuho Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.(“MHSS”), a holder of acapital markets services licence and an exempt financial adviser regulated