固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 36576235glennko@cmbi.com.hk We hope you found our commentaries and ideashelpful. We seek toelevate our efforts and value-add further in the coming year. We highlyappreciate your support to us in Sell-Side Analysts of the polls of “TheAsset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025”.Thank you for yoursupport! Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk Thenew KORGAS/NHSESC 28-30s tightened 1-3bps this morning.SHIKON/NSINTW 34-35s tightened another 2-5bps. MYLIFE/NIPLIF 55sand DAIL/ASAMLI Perps were up 0.1-0.2pt. EHICAR 26s lowered 0.9pt. BABA:Alibaba raised USD1.5mn from sales of EB. JerryWang王世超(852)3761 8919jerrywang@cmbi.com.hk FAEACO:Revisit the knowns and unknowns.FAEACO 12.814 Perplowered 0.6pts this morning. See below. Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,on primary, the new CNMDHL 4.875 30 widened 9bps from RO(T+115), the old CNMDHL 26 closed 3bps tighter. See our comments on3Jul ’25. The new NHSECS 4.625 28/NHSECS 4.75 30 tightened 4-5bps fromROs. The new KORGAS Float 28/KORGAS 4.25 30 were unchanged fromROs. Meanwhile in KR, LGENSO/HYNMTR Float 27-30s closed unchangedto 4bps tighter. In Chinese IGs, BABA 31s/35s were 1-2bps tighter. Alibabaissued HKD12.0bn (cUSD1.5bn) zero coupon exchangeable bond due 2032.In financials, SUMIBK/WSTP Float 29-31s were unchanged to 2bps tighter.In insurance papers,SHIKON 35s/NSINTW 34s tightened 5-15bps. NIPLIF55s/MYLIFE 54s and SUMILF/FUKOKU Perps were up 0.1-0.4pt. In AT1s,LLOYDS 6.75/SOCGEN 8.125/NWG 7.3 Perps were up 0.2-0.4pt. In HK,FAEACO Perp lowered another 2.4pts and closed 5.8pts lower WTD. Seecomments below. LASUDE 26 lowered 3.7pts, closed 6.3pts lower WTD.NWDEVL Perps/27-31s were unchanged to 1.0pt lower and closed 0.2-1.2pts lower WTD. In Chinese properties, ROADKG 28-30s/Perps wereunchanged to 0.4pt lower, closed 0.1-0.9pt lower WTD. On the other hand,VNKRLE 27-29s were up 0.1-0.2pt. SZ Metro granted another loan ofRMB6.2bn at 2.34% (LPR-76bps), and SZ Metro has granted Vanke six loanstotaled cRMB21.1bn since Feb ’25. See our comments on SZ Metro’s supportto Vanke on15 May ’25. Outside properties, EHICAR 26-27s lowered 0.5-1.9pts. In SE Asia, DELMPI Perp lowered 0.7pt. VEDLN 28-33s were down0.1-0.3pt. In LGFVs, the CNH ZHHFGR 4.5 27 rose 1.3pts to 103 thanks to Chinese RM buying. We saw onshore-AAAguaranteed CNH papers such as HSIVEH 6.5 28s/HSNCII 6.5 27s compressed towards sub-6%. We also sawmore interests in 364-day LGFVs as some investors were beginning to reassess the risk profile of such structure.There were robust demand on USD names such as HNFARM 6.2 27s/NCCIVG 6.5 28s. In SOE perps, AVIILCPerp was up 0.1pt. LastTradingDay’s Top Movers MarcoNews Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.83%), Dow (+0.77%) and Nasdaq(+1.02%) were higher on Thursday. President Trump saidthat the US administration may begin sending out letters to trading partners as soon as Friday setting unilateraltariff rates ahead of a 9 July’25 deadline. The US unemployment rate of Jun’25 was 4.1%, lower than the marketexpectation of 4.3%. The US Service PMI for Jun’25 was 52.9, lower than the market expectation of 53.1. USTyield was higher on Thursday, 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.88%/3.94%/4.35%/4.86%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 FAEACO: Revisit the knowns and unknowns The known knowns Far East Consortium (FEC) posted weaker FY25 results with a loss before tax of cHKD1bn as expected afterthe profit warning on19 Jun’25. Its adj. cash profit, excluding non-cash impairment losses, also lowered toHKD266.0mn in FY25 from HKD780.3mn.That said, compared with the adj. cash profit since 2HFY24, we seesigns of stabilization of the operating performance of FEC.We take some comfort that its adj net gearing ratioimproved to 67.6% (vs 68.8% in Sep’24 and 68.1% in Mar’24).The net debt reduction more than offset netlosses and various impairment losses.Subsequent tothe completion of sales of HK mortgage assets and BCinvestment (1 month earlier than expected), liquidity profit profile and net debts should further improved.Weestimateits liquidity position (cash+investment securities) to increase to cHKD4.7bn from cHKD3.9bn on a pro-forma basis. The known unknowns The major known unknown is the rationale of why FEC turned much more cautious in terms of perp couponpayment and the partial call.A few gesture such as skipping the final dividend and sale of perpsby the spouseof FEC’s chairman are fueling the speculations of coupon deferral and further delay in partial, and even talkson a LME.However, these appears to be inconsistent with our expectation of improving liquidity and theenvironment of lower funding cost.Furthermore, the attributable GMV for projects to be completed by Mar’26is HKD12bn and HKD5.1bn was pre-sold.We expect a net cash inflow of HKD2bn after settlement ofconstruction even on a relatively conservative scenario.We also expect the completion of sales of Hornseyhotel and town hall with