半年度策略报告：原料不确定性较强，下方支撑稳固

分析师：祁玉蓉从业资格证号：F03100031投资咨询证号：Z0021060金属期货（期权）研究室010-82295006Email：qiyurong@swhysc.com《宏源期货有色金属年报_铅：原料偏紧格局下，铅价能否再创新高20231222》《宏源铅季报：成本与库存博弈，铅价上下空间有限20240402》《宏源期货有色金属季报_铅：铅价回归理性，波动或收窄》《宏源期货有色金属半年报_铅：原料偏紧 逐 步 传 导 至 锭 端 ， 铅 价 抗 跌 性 较 强《宏源期货有色金属年报_铅：原料及供应仍为铅价波动主导因素》《宏源期货有色金属季报_铅：原料问题未解，铅价下方支撑尚存20250403》原料不确定性较强，下方支撑稳固请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分2025年7月2日 研究所TEL：相关图表相关报告：20240626》 目录报告摘要：........................................................................................................................................................................... 1一、铅市行情回顾：长“N”走势........................................................................................................................................... 5二、原料&利润：成本支撑较强.......................................................................................................................................... 7（一）原生铅：铅精矿偏紧依旧，TC暂无改善..................................................................................................................7（二）再生铅：货源有限，废电瓶价格易涨难跌..............................................................................................................11三、供给端：一增一减...................................................................................................................................................... 13（一）原生铅：开工回升.....................................................................................................................................................13（二）再生铅：开工波动较大.............................................................................................................................................14四、需求端：淡季当时...................................................................................................................................................... 15（一）消费淡季，下游采买有限.........................................................................................................................................15（二）出口窗口持续关闭.....................................................................................................................................................18五、库存与供需平衡.......................................................................................................................................................... 19六、行情展望及投资策略................................................................................................................................................... 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分第2页 图表目录图表1：SMM1#铅锭平均价.......................................................................................................................................................6图表2：SMM再生精铅平均价..................................................................................................................................................6图表3：沪铅主力收盘价............................................................................................................................................................6图表4：期货收盘价(电子盘):LME3个月铅.............................................................................................................................6图表5：上海铅现货升贴水........................................................................................................................................................6图表6：LME铅升贴水（0-3）.................................................................................................................................................6图表7：基差................................................................................................................................................................................7图表8：近月-连一.......................................................................................................................................................................7图表9：连一-连二.......................................................................................................................................................................7图表10：连二-连三.....................................................................................................................................................................7图表11：国产铅精矿价格..........................................................................................................................................................8图表12：进口铅精矿价格..........................................................................................................................................................8图表13：全球铅精矿产量..........................................................................................................................................................9图表14：铅精矿月度产量..........................................................................................................................................................9图表15：铅精矿进口盈亏..........................................................................................................................................................9图表16：铅精矿港口库存：连云港........................