铸造铝合金产业链周报

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures强弱分析：偏弱供应端，废铝供需双弱，合金开工率呈现下移趋势。现今废铝供应季节性紧缺，回收商持货量有限，流通货源偏紧下持货商惜售，价格偏坚挺维稳运行，精废价差处于相对偏低位置。废铝挤压合金厂利润，目前迈入亏损阶段，5月预计铸造铝合金厂趋势性下调开工率，对废铝需求收缩，即原料端处于供需双弱阶段。消费淡季程度逐步走深，下游刚需少量采购。下游订单在二季度存在边际走弱特征，补库相对谨慎，下游压铸企业采购积极性欠佳，以刚需为主。消费淡季压力下，价格上方承压显著，中期维度来看或仍以偏弱运行为主。周内铝价受到关税缓和情绪乐观的影响而大幅上抬，然而需求端的疲弱限制ADC12跟涨幅度。回归基本面，供需双弱逻辑或随着淡季程度更深而演变为负反馈逻辑，价格回落。同时，ADC12-A00基差或继续收敛，关注跨品种套利机会。废料价格相对坚挺ADC12-A00有望延续下滑趋势资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所铸造铝合金：消费疲弱下承压运行，相较于A00价差收敛1500016000170001800019000200002100022000佛山破碎生铝精废价差（右轴）佛山破碎生铝含税价佛山A00-1500-1000-50005001000150020002500300001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-29元/吨ADC12-A00202120222023 ◆◆◆ 供应端——废铝01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures废铝产量、出货量处于高位，社会库存历史中高位303540455055606570758001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨废铝_总量20212022202320242025010203040506070802021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-01万吨华东西南华北华南其他0123456701-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 10000废铝：出货量合计：中国2021202220232024202500.511.522.5301-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 10000废铝社会库存2021202220232024数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures废铝进口处于高位，但同比增速下滑日期铝废料及碎料进口（万吨）同比（%）铝废料及碎料累计进口（万吨）累计同比（%）2025-0216.4439.9332.3112.132025-0115.87-7.0115.87-7.012024-1215.802.41178.151.742024-1113.83-21.45162.351.672024-1013.31-13.62148.524.542024-0913.20-9.55135.216.742024-0813.77-9.27122.008.872024-0713.52-8.89108.2311.712024-0613.96-14.1394.7115.442024-0515.4010.7580.7522.742024-0418.0539.6965.3525.962024-0318.4925.2147.3121.410246810121416182001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 10000铝废料及碎料(76020000):进口数量:当月值202120222023202420250204060801001201401601802002021-082021-102021-12x 10000100012001400160018002000220024002600数据来源：同花顺、Fastmarkets、国泰君安期货研究所 供应端——再生铝02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金价格短期横盘，ADC12-A00继续收敛趋势-1000-500050010001500180001850019000195002000020500210002150022000元/吨元/吨ADC12-A00(右轴）ADC12A001400016000180002000022000240002600001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨SMM铝合金ADC12-平均价20212022202320242025数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所-1500-1000-50005001000150020002500300001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-16元/吨ADC12-A00202120222023202415000160001700018000190002000021000220002300001-0201-1401-2602-0902-2103-0503-1703-2904-1104-2305-0805-2006-0106-1306-2507-0707-1907-3108-1208-2409-0509-1809-3010-19元/吨保太ADC122022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金区域价差：西南表现偏弱19000195002000020500210002150022000元/吨华东华南西南东北-300-200-1000100200300400500600元/吨-400-200020040060080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨华南-西南20212022202320242025-200-1000100200300400500元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金开工率小幅下调，月度开工处在历史低位30354045505560657001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%中国再生铝分规模月度开工率：总开工率2021202220232024202525303540455055606501-0301-1301-2302-0502-1602-2703-0803-1603-2404-0204-1204-2004-2805-1105-1905-3106-0906-2107-0207-1407-2808-1108-25%再生铝合金开工率202120222023202430354045505560657001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%再生铝合金月度产量202320242025山西河南湖南安徽3.30%0.93%1.48%18.40%0.41%内蒙古青海四川贵州0.16%0.68%0.23%0.57%0.75%山东河北福建湖北3.51%1.87%1.89%7.52%8.36%云南上海广东江西0.82%1.82%18.88%6.24%0.00%再生铝合金月度产量占比数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesADC12成本以废铝为主，当下陷入小亏损1700018000190002000021000220002300001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-2205-0705-1905-31元/吨铝合金总成本20222023废铝90%硅2%铜3%天然气1%其他4%ADC12成本结构100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000280003000001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨不通氧553#硅(华东)-平均价202020212022202320242025数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所-800-600-400-20002004006008001000120001-0201-1301-2402-0502-1602-2703-1003-2104-0104-1304-2405-0805-1905-30元/吨ADC12利润20222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures生产端开工率小减，铸造合金显隐性库存累增151719212325272901-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨再生铝合金厂区原料库存（月度）202220232024202502468101201-0301-1301-2602-1402-2803-1003-2204-0404-1404-2605-0905-1905-3106-1006-2307-0507-15万吨铝合金锭：厂内库存：中国（周）2022202300.511.522.533.501-0301-1301-2602-1402-2803-1003-2204-0404-1404-2605-0905-1905-3106-1006-2307-0507-1507-2808-0908-1909-0109-1309-2310-0610-2011-0111-1111-2412-0612-1612-29万吨铝合金锭：社会库存：中国（周）20222023202420250246810121401-0301-1301-2602-1402-2803-1003-2204-0404-1404-2605-0905-1905-3106-1006-2307-0507-15万吨铝合金锭：厂库+社库20222023数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures再生铝棒：产量、库存01-0201-1601-3002-1302-2703-1403-2804-1104