铸造铝合金产业链周报

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures强弱分析：中性本周铸造铝合金期货走势持续走强，周内触及20145元/吨高点。当前来看，在传统淡季深化、铝价高企等因素影响下，部分中小型企业出现减停产，成品库存不断下滑，大厂凭借稳定下游订单和交割品牌优势，产量保持稳定，行业开工率出现分化。此外，贸易商套利也为市场提供了一定流动性，社会库存不断累积，部分仓库已逼近核定库容。短期来看，仍处于供需双弱的阶段，价格进一步上行空间承压，但成本支撑逻辑仍在，预计短期铸造铝合金价格将继续维持震荡。从当前周频的微观基本面来看，截至7月18日，铝合金锭厂库+社库较前周去库0.12万吨至10.11万吨，库存仍保持高位。上游方面，贸易商反馈进入三季度后终端产废明显下滑，废铝流通货源偏紧。精废价差表现为窄幅震荡，整体呈现趋势性上移，仍需密切关注废铝流通边际变化。下游方面，7月第二周（7月7日-7月13日），国内乘用车总销量达33.3万辆，同比下降6.46%。7月作为传统的汽车消费淡季，在高温多雨天气以及6月经销商促销透支需求的影响下，汽车销量增长出现乏力。精废价差出现回落ADC12-A00出现收敛资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所铸造铝合金：行业开工出现分化，短期偏震荡-2000-1500-1000-50005001000150001-0201-1401-26元/吨010002000300040005000600001-0201-1401-26元/吨 ◆◆ 供应端——废铝01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures废铝产量处于高位，社会库存历史中高位3035404550556065707501-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨废铝_总量20212022202320242025010203040506070802021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-11万吨华东01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 10000废铝：出货量合计：中国2021202220232024202500.511.522.5301-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 1000020212022数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures废铝进口处于高位，但同比增速下滑铝废料及碎料进口（万吨）同比（%）铝废料及碎料累计进口（万吨）累计同比（%）15.973.7385.666.0919.045.4869.696.6418.34-0.7950.657.0816.4439.9332.3112.1315.87-7.0115.87-7.0115.802.41178.151.7413.83-21.45162.351.6713.31-13.62148.524.5413.20-9.55135.216.7413.77-9.27122.008.8713.52-8.89108.2311.7113.96-14.1394.7115.44051015202501-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 10000铝废料及碎料(76020000):进口数量:当月值202120222023202420250204060801001201401601802002021-102021-122022-02x 10000数据来源：同花顺、Fastmarkets、国泰君安期货研究所 供应端——再生铝02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金价格横盘，ADC12-A00出现收敛数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所120001400016000180002000022000240002600001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨保太ADC1220212022202320242025-1500-1000-50005001600017000180001900020000210002200023000240002022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-042024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-06元/吨元/吨保太ADC12-A00（右轴）保太ADC12A00-2000-1500-1000-50005001000150001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-18元/吨保太ADC12-A00202120220100200300400500600700800900100001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-18元/吨smm-保太20212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金区域价差：价差基本收敛，呈现一定季节性规律19000195002000020500210002150022000元/吨华东华南西南东北数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所-300-200-100010020030040050060001-0201-1301-2402-0402-1502-2603-0903-2003-3104-1204-2305-0705-1805-2906-0906-2007-0107-1207-2308-0308-1408-2509-0509-1609-2710-1510-2611-0611-1711-2812-0912-2012-31元/吨华东-西南20212022202320242025-400-200020040060080001-0201-1301-2402-0402-1502-2603-0903-2003-3104-1204-2305-0705-1805-2906-0906-2007-0107-1207-2308-0308-1408-2509-0509-1609-2710-1510-2611-0611-1711-2812-0912-2012-31元/吨华南-西南20212022202320242025-200-100010020030040050001-0201-1301-2402-0402-1502-2603-0903-2003-3104-1204-2305-0705-1805-2906-0906-2007-0107-1207-2308-0308-1408-2509-0509-1609-2710-1510-2611-0611-1711-2812-0912-20元/吨华东-华南20212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金周度开工小幅下调，月度开工出现回升25303540455055606501-0301-1301-2302-0502-1602-2703-0803-1603-2404-0204-1204-2004-2805-1105-1905-2706-0506-1406-2307-0207-10%再生铝合金周度开工率20212022202330354045505560657001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨再生铝合金月度产量202320242025山西河南湖南安徽3.25%0.78%1.28%18.07%内蒙古青海四川贵州0.22%0.67%0.22%0.45%山东河北福建湖北3.21%1.79%2.09%7.98%云南上海广东江西0.81%1.79%18.25%7.60%再生铝合金月度产量占比数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所30354045505560657001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%SMM再生铝分规模月度开工率：总开工率20212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesADC12成本以废铝为主，当下匡算平均陷入亏损1700018000190002000021000220002300001-0201-1301-2402-0502-1602-2703-1003-2104-0104-1304-2405-0805-1905-3006-1006-2107-0207-1307-2408-0408-1508-2609-06元/吨铝合金总成本202220232024废铝90%硅3%铜3%天然气1%其他3%ADC12成本结构数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所-800-600-400-20002004006008001000120001-0201-1301-2402-0502-1602-2703-1003-2104-0104-1304-2405-0805-1905-3006-1006-2107-0207-1307-2408-0408-1508-2609-06元/吨ADC12利润20222023202401000020000300004000050000600007000001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨不通氧553#硅(上海)-平均价20212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造合金显隐性库存小降151719212325272901-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨再生铝合金厂区原料库存（月度）202220232024202500.511.522.533.5401-0301-1301-2602-1402-2803-1003-2204-0404-1404-2605-0905-1705-2606-0306-1306-2106-3007-0807-1807-2808-0908-1909-0109-1309-2310-0610-2011-0111-1111-2412-0612-16万吨铝合金锭：社会库存：中国（周）2022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金进口窗口暂关闭01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31未锻轧的铝合金(76012000):进口数量:当月值202120222023202420250204060