铸造铝合金产业链周报

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures强弱分析：偏弱供应端，负反馈显现，废铝价格重心有所下调。现今废铝供应季节性紧缺，但在需求淡季影响下合金厂开工率亦有下调，对于废铝的需求空间收缩，废铝在需求负反馈下价格承压下调，精废价差以有所回升。合金厂方面，原料价格下调后成本有所松动，然而需求限制下预计后续开工率继续下调。消费淡季程度逐步走深，下游刚需少量采购。下游压铸企业订单有限，补库相对谨慎，以刚需为主。铸造铝合金市场成交氛围偏淡，淡季阶段或将延续。淡季影响下，铸造铝合金价格或小幅下调，相对电解铝继续偏弱。随着淡季程度走深需求负反馈逻辑显现，压制废铝价格→成本端松动后对价格的支撑减弱→价格继续下调。预计短期角度单边价格仍然存在压力，或偏弱运行。同时，ADC12消费淡季程度更甚，相对电解铝的价差仍有下降空间，中长期跨品种套利可以在淡季尾声阶段布局多AD空AL头寸，等待Q3消费旺季驱动获得收益。此外，预计上市后月差结构交易现实，亦或遵循淡旺季逻辑，先表现为小Contango，而后转Back，可以关注跨期正套头寸。资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所铸造铝合金：淡季特征显著，偏弱运行 ◆◆◆ 供应端——废铝01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures废铝产量处于高位，社会库存历史中高位303540455055606570758001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨废铝_总量20212022202320242025010203040506070802021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-09万吨华东01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨废铝：出货量合计：中国2021202220232024202500.511.522.5301-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x1000020212022数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures废铝进口处于高位，但同比增速下滑日期铝废料及碎料进口（万吨）同比（%）铝废料及碎料累计进口（万吨）累计同比（%）2025-0318.34-0.7950.657.082025-0216.4439.9332.3112.132025-0115.87-7.0115.87-7.012024-1215.802.41178.151.742024-1113.83-21.45162.351.672024-1013.31-13.62148.524.542024-0913.20-9.55135.216.742024-0813.77-9.27122.008.872024-0713.52-8.89108.2311.712024-0613.96-14.1394.7115.442024-0515.4010.7580.7522.742024-0418.0539.6965.3525.960246810121416182001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x10000铝废料及碎料(76020000):进口数量:当月值202120222023202420250204060801001201401601802002021-092021-112022-01x10000100012001400160018002000220024002600数据来源：同花顺、Fastmarkets、国泰君安期货研究所 供应端——再生铝02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金价格短期小跌，ADC12-A00收敛显著-1000-500050010001500180001850019000195002000020500210002150022000元/吨元/吨ADC12-A00(右轴）ADC12A001400016000180002000022000240002600001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨SMM铝合金ADC12-平均价20212022202320242025数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所-1500-1000-50005001000150020002500300001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-29元/吨ADC12-A0020212022202315000160001700018000190002000021000220002300001-0201-1401-2602-0902-2103-0503-1703-2904-1104-2305-0805-2006-0106-1306-2507-0707-1907-31元/吨保太ADC12202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金区域价差：西南表现偏弱，呈现一定季节性规律19000195002000020500210002150022000元/吨华东华南西南东北数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所-300-200-100010020030040050060001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨华东-西南20212022202320242025-400-200020040060080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨华南-西南20212022202320242025-200-100010020030040050001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨华东-华南20212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金开工率小幅下调，月度开工处在历史低位30354045505560657001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%中国再生铝分规模月度开工率：总开工率2021202220232024202525303540455055606501-0301-1301-2302-0502-1602-2703-0803-1603-2404-0204-1204-2004-2805-1105-1905-2706-0506-1506-2807-0707-2108-0408-1809-01%再生铝合金开工率202120222023202430354045505560657001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%再生铝合金月度产量202320242025山西河南湖南安徽3.30%0.93%1.48%18.40%0.41%内蒙古青海四川贵州0.16%0.68%0.23%0.57%0.75%山东河北福建湖北3.51%1.87%1.89%7.52%8.36%云南上海广东江西0.82%1.82%18.88%6.24%0.00%再生铝合金月度产量占比数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesADC12成本以废铝为主，当下陷入亏损1700018000190002000021000220002300001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-22元/吨铝合金总成本2022废铝90%硅2%铜3%天然气1%其他4%ADC12成本结构100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000280003000001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨不通氧553#硅(华东)-平均价202020212022202320242025-800-600-400-20002004006008001000120001-0201-1301-2402-0502-1602-2703-1003-2104-0104-13元/吨2022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造合金显隐性库存累增151719212325272901-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨再生铝合金厂区原料库存（月度）202220232024202500.511.522.533.501-0301-1301-2602-1402-2803-1003-2204-0404-1404-2605-0905-1705-2606-0306-1406-2407-0707-1907-2908-1108-2309-0209-1509-2710-1110-2111-0311-1511-2512-0812-20万吨铝合金锭：社会库存：中国（周）2022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures再生铝棒：产量、库存01-0201-1601-3002-1302-2703-1403-2804-1104-2505-0905-2306-0606-2007-0407-1808-0108-1508-2909-1209-2610-1010-2411-0711-2112-0512-19万吨再生铝棒产量202320242025050001000015000200002500001-0201-1601-3002-1302-2703-1403-2804-1104-2505-0905-2306-0606-2007-0407-1808-0108-1508-2909-1209-2610-1010-2411-0711-2112-0512-19再生铝棒：厂内库存202320242025 需求端—