大摩闭门会中国医疗保健20260805

2026 China Biopharma & MedTech Investment Outlook（（2026年中国生物年中国生物制药与医疗科技投资展望）制药与医疗科技投资展望） 摘要摘要 对外授权交易市场对外授权交易市场：2025年对外授权交易金额达到$130B，2026年年初至今已突破$80B，其中首付款占国内生物科技融资的比例已达到70%。中国原创管线中国原创管线FDA获批前景获批前景：预计到2040年，中国原创管线将占美国FDA获批药品总数的35%，可带来约$220B的中国以外市场收入。临床成本优势显著临床成本优势显著：III期临床试验的单受试者成本在中国为$25k，美国则为$70k，这一差异源于中国更快的受试者招募效率与更高效的临床试验基础设施运营能力。CDMO赛道需求爆发赛道需求爆发：多肽/寡核苷酸（TIDE）和抗体偶联药物（ADC）赛道的CDMO需求激增，订单承接比（book-to-bill）大于1.0，在司美格鲁肽的生产环节拥有30%的成本优势。医疗设备全球化转型医疗设备全球化转型：医械行业全球化正向高端成像和机器人赛道倾斜；迈瑞医疗（Mindray）、联影医疗（United Imaging）等头部企业的海外收入目标占比超过50%-60%。零售药店行业承压转型零售药店行业承压转型：零售药店面临营收增长压力（2026年5月同店销售增速为-1%），受个人账户改革影响，行业正转向轻资产加盟模式，并借助AI技术提升运营效率。中医药板块投资特性中医药板块投资特性：中医药（TCM）板块具备资本保值属性，股息收益率可达4%-5%，尽管面临中药材成本高企与消费者可自由支配支出疲软带来的利润率压力。 Q&A Question 1: What is the current state and outlook for China's pharmaceuticalmarket, and what are the key trends driving its integration with the globalmarket? China's pharmaceutical market has annual product sales of approximately1.8 trillion RMB, accounting for15% to 20% of theglobal pharmaceutical market, making it the second largest market globally, behind the United States which holds over 40% ofthe global share. A core industry theme is the accelerating momentumofout-licensing and globalization. This trend is propelled by dual drivers: 1.Pull factor: Global pharmaceutical companies grappling with thepatent cliff and loss of market exclusivity2.Push factor: The rapidly growing asset pipeline of Chinese pharmaceutical firms In 2025, the total deal value of China's pharmaceutical out-licensing business exceeded130 billion US dollars. As of the first halfof 2026, the year-to-date total deal size has already surpassed80 billion US dollars, pointing to a high likelihood of surpassing the2025 transaction volume baseline. New incremental changes to this globalization trend include: Sourcing of more novel and diversified therapeutic modalities fromChinaEvolution of industry transaction modelsA shift towards earlier-stage asset cooperation, including preclinical anddiscovery-stage collaborations Industry deal formats are becoming increasingly versatile, with representative cases including: 1.Hengrui's recently announced strategic partnership with BMS, which encompassesout-licensing, in-licensing, co-development, and co-commercialization2.Sinobio Pharma's recent out-licensing and in-licensing transactions3.CSBC's platformcooperation deal with AstraZeneca focused on its long-acting drug platform Question 2: What are the key industry catalysts and policy updates expectedin the second half of 2026 for the pharmaceutical sector? Key industry events and policy catalysts scheduled for the second half of 2026 include multiple major academic conferences andtargeted regulatory updates: 1.The annualNational Reimbursement Drug List negotiation, which is typically held in the fourth quarter2.Updates to commercial insurance drug coverage lists, and the upcomingDRG reformversion 3.0expected to launch in thesecond half of 20263.Additional rounds ofVolume-Based Procurement, as greater competition emerges in the generic and biosimilar drugmarkets What are the primary push and pull factors driving the trend of China becoming a major sourceof external innovation for global biopharma? The dynamic is framed as simultaneous push and pull factors.The pull factor: The significant loss of exclusivity faced by globalpharmaceutical companies, which is estimated to create a cumulative revenue shortfall of over 100 billion US dollars by 2035,concentrated in oncology, immunology, and cardiometabolic diseases. This creates a substantial need for external innovation.Thepush factor: The increasing global competitiveness of assets generated by Chinese biotech and pharma companies. This recognitionwas solidified in 2025, as the market began to appreciate that Chinese innovators can produce globally relevant therapeutic assetswith greater capital and cost efficiency. A key enabler has been the narrowing of the innovation gap between Chinese innovators andtheir Western peers over the past decade, fromover ten years to approximately 3.5 years by 2024. How is the out-licensing trend impacting the funding landscape for Chinese biotech, and what isthe long-term forecast for China-originated assets in the global market? Upfront payments fromout-licensing deals and partnerships are increasingly constituting a major funding source for domesticinnovators. In the first four months of 2026, these payments represented about 70% of the sector’s funding. This trend supports along-termforecast where China-originated assets could account for approximately 35%, or one-third, of US FDA approvals by2040, generating around 220 billion US dollars in ex-China revenue. Progress in 2026 remains broadly supportive of this trajectory,with one FDA approval year-to-date and several more PDUFA decisions expected later in the year. While global Phase III trialconversions need to be monitored, the overall innovation flywheel is considered to be on track for i