Morning Insight: August 6, 2026

Morning Insight:August 6, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen WuCertification：Z0024232wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Precious Metals:Platinum and Palladium Surge on Technical Momentum; Goldand Silver Extend Rally On August 5, platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou FuturesExchange (GFEX) posted exceptionally strong gains, with the benchmarkplatinum contract rising 9.18% and palladium advancing 8.51%. The rallybegan at around 19:00 on August 4. Notably, there were no materialsupply-side or demand-side developments in the public domain to justifysuch a sharp move. Instead, platinum led the rally through a technicalbreakout that attracted momentum buying, with palladium subsequentlyfollowing higher. During the August 5 Asian session, bullish momentum remained firmly incontrol. From a technical perspective, both platinum and palladium havebegun to break out of the prolonged range-bound pattern that hadcharacterized trading in recent months. Nevertheless, we caution that thecurrent rally lacks a strong fundamental foundation. High-frequencymarket indicators have yet to consistently support a more constructiveoutlook. Aside from modest inflows into platinum ETFs, the Londonphysical platinum marketremains well supplied, suggesting that thesustainability of the rally will continue to depend primarily ontechnical momentum rather than improving fundamentals. For the overseas market, spot platinum faces initial resistance at USD1,780–1,800/oz, with stronger resistance around USD 1,900/oz. Key supportlevels are located at USD 1,682/oz, corresponding to the 50-day movingaverage, and USD 1,635/oz, near the 20-day moving average. Spot palladium faces initial resistance at USD 1,395–1,440/oz, with stronger resistancein the USD 1,460–1,490/oz range. The USD 1,250–1,280/oz area, where the20-day and 50-day moving averages converge, should provide importanttechnical support. Meanwhile, gold and silver also staged a notable rally, supported bysigns of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On the eveningof August 5, stronger-than-expected ADP employment data reinforcedconfidence in the resilience of the U.S. labormarket. At the same time,the U.S. Treasury announced the removal of certain Iran-relatedsanctions, while renewed reports of improving conditions along keyshipping routes further boosted market risk appetite. These developments eased concerns over the supply-chain disruptions thathad previously supported precious metals, leading investors toincreasingly price in a decline in geopolitical risk and a correspondingadjustment in expectations for Federal Reservepolicy. The latest priceaction has largely unfolded in line with our previous expectations.Following gold's decisive break above the USD 4,160/oz resistance level,the next upside target lies in the USD 4,200–4,300/oz range. Silver haslikewise broken above the USD 61/oz resistance level, opening the waytoward USD 62.6/oz. As highlighted in our latest weekly report, from a technical perspective,gold has successfully demonstrated resilience at key support levels.After four consecutive months of declines, the monthly chart finallyposted a positive close in July, while the weekly chart has established aclear pattern of higher lows. Long positions initiated around USD 3,950–4,000/oz have repeatedly proven to offer attractive value. Although the broader macro headwinds have yet to fully dissipate, thestrength of the current rebound in gold and silver has clearly improvedmarket sentiment toward the precious metals complex. That said, marketvolatility has increased significantly. Platinum and palladium, inparticular, remain vulnerable to profit-taking following their rapidgains. Investors are therefore advised to maintain disciplined risk management and remain alert to the possibility of sharp pullbacks afterthe recent surge. Urea:Policy Support Boosts Sentiment, but Upside Is BecomingIncreasingly Limited In the short term, supportive policy measures have improved marketsentiment, leading to a rebound in both spot and futures prices for urea.However, following the strong price action on Tuesday, much of thebullish sentiment has already been priced in, suggesting that furtherupside is becoming increasingly limited. Based on discussions from this week's industry meeting, policymakers haveprovided relatively clear support for the market floor, with both spotand futures prices expected to find support in the RMB 1,600–1,650/tonnerange. On the upside, the September contract is constrained by the staticrisk-free arbitrage ceiling, which can be assessed based on the cost ofwarrant registration and delivery. For the January contract, the keytrading consideration is therisk-reward profile between the policy-implied price ceiling and the policy-supported downside. From a longer-term, quarterly perspective, urea remains a strategicallyimportant agricultural commodity subject to close government oversightunder China's Food Security