2026年8月领先指标

Key economic and financial metrics impacting property markets Q2 inflation lower than expected, RBA to hold in August INFLATIONARY PRESSURES SLOW Inflation remains above the RBA targetAnnual growth headline and trimmed mean inflation (y/y %) June monthly inflation data was softerthan expected with headline inflationfalling to 3.8% over the year andtrimmed mean inflation falling to 3.6%.Q2 inflation, which is the importantmeasure for the RBA’s August meeting,was also 0.1% below market consensusat 3.9% headline and 3.6% trimmedmean.Despite the Q2 trimmed meanrising, the data was encouraging. Someof the most explicit and concerningsigns of cost-push pressure in May lookto have faded in June. This suggests therecent rise in inflationmay bea resultof narrow cost-push dynamics ratherthanbroader inflationary pressuresacross the economy. RBA EXPECTED TO HOLD IN AUGUST Following the Q2 inflation release,market pricing for an August rate risefell from a 21% chance to 4%, and themarket is currently pricing in no chanceof a rate rise. Conflictin the Middle Eastremains a threat to inflation, inflationexpectations and hence the cash rateoutlook, but Q2 data will allow the RBAto watch and see the impact of thecompeting influences from the MiddleEast, the slowing housing market andthe 75bps of cash rate rises this year. US BOND YIELDS RISE US 10-year bond yields rose to theirhighest level since 2007 in July asinvestors appeared to price in the risksaround geopolitics, growing USgovernment deficits andperhapsreducedinvestor confidence that thenew US Federal Reserve chairKevinWarshwill act aggressivelylowerinflationquickly towards the Fed’starget. Business indicators Businesses conditionscontinue slowly improve despite elevated tensions in Middle East PMIs return to expansionCompositePMI Output Index (above 50 indicates expansion) Consumer indicators Consumer confidence remains weak however household spending remains resilient Consumer confidence remains weak Household spending rises in May Confidence index, value above 100 signal optimism Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Inflation & interest rates Inflationary pressure from Middle East conflict is slowly subsiding Inflation starts to pass-through economy Annual growth headline and trimmed mean inflation (y/y %) Financial markets Renewed conflict in theMiddle East drives oil prices back over US$100/bbl Tech stock jitters drive equity volatilityGlobalequities, price indices,1 Jan 2024 = 100 Oil prices rise with renewed conflict Brent crude $US/b (LHS), Shipping rates-Baltic Exchange DryIndex (RHS) AUD strengthens in JulyAUD vs USD (LHS) and trade-weighted index (RHS) We like questions, if you’ve got one about our research, or would like some propertyadvice, we would like to hear from you. You canalsosubscribe to our research. Recent research Alistair ReadSenior Economist+61 450 831 899Alistair.Read@au.knightfrank.com Ben BurstonChief Economist+61 2 9036 6756Ben.Burston@au.knightfrank.com