领先指标2026年2月

Key economic and financial metrics impacting property markets Persistently high inflationleadstoRBA ratehike INFLATION REMAINS ABOVE TARGET The ABS’s December monthly CPI datacame in above expectations, withannual headline inflation rising 3.8%and trimmed mean inflation up 3.3%.Services inflation remains sticky andrents and new dwelling purchases areaccelerating which will increase theRBA’s concerns. The release alsocontained Q4 annual trimmed meaninflation data which the RBA focuses onduring this transition to monthly CPI.This came is at 3.4%, which was abovethe RBA’s November forecast of 3.2%. RBA HIKES INTEREST RATES Elevated Q4 inflation, combined with atightening of the labour market inDecember,ledthe RBA into 25bps ratehike inFebruary.In their decision, theRBA noted that private demand hadstrengthened substantially more thanexpected while supply capacity remainslimited.Bond yields have also risen to4.8%and is expected to remain aroundthislevel for the remainder of the year. AUD STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY The AUD appreciated substantially inFebruary to above US$0.70 for the firsttime since February 2023. This waslargely driven by a sharp fall in the USD,down 10% over the past year against abasket of other currencies, as traderscited concerns over volatility anduncertainty in US economic, domesticand trade policy. The shift inexpectations towards rate hikes inAustralia has also contributed, with alarger interest rate differential betweenAustralia and the US increasingdemand for–and therefore placingupward pressure on–the AUD. Business indicators Higher interest rate expectations weigh on business confidence and forward orders Unemployment rate falls Consumer indicators Household spending continues to improve, but potential rate hikes weigh on confidence Household spending, current prices (m/m) Household spending, current prices (y/y)6.34.8 Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Inflation & interest rates Elevated inflation is expected to drive the RBA to hike interest rates in 2026 Inflation remains above the RBA target Source: Knight Frank Research, ABSNote: Data transitions from quarterly to monthly in April 2025. Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Financial markets Global financial marketsremain stable and the Australian dollar strengthens We like questions, if you’ve got one about our research, or would like some propertyadvice, we would like to hear from you. You canalsosubscribe to our research. Recent research Alistair ReadSenior Economist+61 450 831 899Alistair.Read@au.knightfrank.com Ben BurstonChief Economist+61 2 9036 6756Ben.Burston@au.knightfrank.com