领先指标2026年3月

Key economic and financial metrics impacting property markets Capacity constraints keep inflation elevated ECONOMY REMAINS CONSTRAINED Capacity constraints drive an uplift in inflationCapacity utilisation rate relative to long-run average (3-month moving average), headline The ABS’s January monthly CPI datacame in slightly above expectations,annualheadline inflation remainedsteady at 3.8% but trimmed meaninflation rose to 3.4%. Capacityutilisation–a leading indicator ofinflation–remains above the long-termaverage indicating that the economy issupply constrained. Combined with arise in aggregate demand followingprevious interest rate cuts, this has ledto the recent rise in inflation. inflation andtrimmed mean inflation (%) INCREASED GOVERNMENT SPENDING Government spending as a share of theeconomy has steadily risen since 2015,accounting for 28.6% of real GDP in Q42025. This reflects spending growthacross all levels of government. Overthe past three years, the biggest growthis in Commonwealth spending whichhas risen by 15.7% ($11.6b) while Stateand local government spending hasgrown by 9.7% ($10 billion). This iscontributing to inflation by crowdingout the private sector, increasingdemand for common resources. REAL GDP GROWTH RISES IN Q4 Australia’s economy grew by a strongerthan expected 0.8% in Q4 2025,increasing the real annual growth rateto 2.6%. This reflected both higherhousehold and private investmentwhich are now the key drivers of GDPgrowth. Public demand also grew as alllevels of Government increased bothexpenditure and investment. Althoughtotal growth was higher than the RBA’sforecasts, private demand was weakerthan expected. This may see the RBAhold rates in March and wait for therelease of Q1 inflation figures. Real GDP growthAustralia key forecasts (Q4 2025, y/y %)Unemployment rate(January 2025, %)Core CPI inflation(January 2025, y/y %)Cash rate target(February 2025, %)(27 February 2026, %) Business indicators Business conditions remain resilient despite expectation of more rate hikes Consumer indicators Household spending remains strong, but outlook for rate hikes weigh on confidence Household spending, current prices (m/m)Household spending, current prices (y/y) Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Inflation & interest rates RBA expected to hold interest rates steady in March Source: Knight Frank Research, ABSNote: Data transitions from quarterly to monthly in April 2025. Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Source: Knight Frank Research, NAB, Oxford Economics, ASX Financial markets Global financial marketsweighed down by uncertainty around both tech and Iran attacks Iran strike drives spike in oil prices Brent crude $US/b (LHS), Shipping rates-Baltic Exchange DryIndex (RHS) We like questions, if you’ve got one about our research, or would like some propertyadvice, we would like to hear from you. You canalsosubscribe to our research. Recent research Alistair ReadSenior Economist+61 450 831 899Alistair.Read@au.knightfrank.com Ben BurstonChief Economist+61 2 9036 6756Ben.Burston@au.knightfrank.com