领先指标2026年1月

Key economic and financial metrics impacting property markets Rising inflation prompts market pivot to rate hikes INFLATION EASES, BUT STILL HIGH The ABS’s November monthly CPI datacame in marginally below expectations,with annual headline inflation rising3.4% and trimmed mean inflation up3.2%. Services inflation remains sticky,while goods inflation fell due to BlackFriday discounting. Energy rebatescontinued to add volatility to headlineinflation. Although the RBA will focuson the upcoming Q4 inflation data,these figures confirm inflation remainsabove the RBA’s target band. RISE IN CASH RATE EXPECTATIONS The sharp rise in inflation in theOctober and November 2025 prints hastriggered a turnaround in marketexpectations. Markets are now pricingin interest rate hikes in 2026, with a25% chance of a hike at the RBA’sFebruary meeting. The RBA’s decisionwill hinge on Q4 inflation data, duelater this month where it is expecting atrimmed mean inflation of 3.2%. AUD IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING TheAUD steadily appreciated againstthe USD throughout 2025, rising fromUS61 cents to US67 cents. This largelyreflected a weakening of the USD asinvestors re-considered its status as asave haven and investors grew moreconcerned with US budget discipline.Looking ahead, the US Fed is forecast tocut interest rates while the RBA isexpected to increase rates. If realised,this divergence will likely support astronger AUD as Australian assetsbecome more attractive to foreigninvestors. Higher global economicgrowth and commodity demand in2026 may also support a higher AUD. Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Business indicators Businessconfidence dips in response to shift in interest rate expectations Consumer indicators Household spending continues to steadily improve Household spending, current prices (m/m) Household spending, current prices (y/y) Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Inflation & interest rates Increased inflation risks have seen expectations shift towards rate hikes in 2026 Source: Knight Frank Research, ABSNote: Data transitions from quarterly to monthly in April 2025. Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Financial markets Global financial marketsdemonstrate stability in December We like questions, if you’ve got one about our research, or would like some propertyadvice, we would like to hear from you. You canalsosubscribe to our research. Recent research Alistair ReadSenior Economist+61 450 831 899Alistair.Read@au.knightfrank.com Ben BurstonChief Economist+61 2 9036 6756Ben.Burston@au.knightfrank.com