领先指标2026年6月

Key economic and financial metrics impacting property markets RBA expected to hold rates in June, awaiting more data INFLATIONSLOWS,BUTYET TO PEAK Inflation remains above the RBA targetAnnual growth headline and trimmed mean inflation (y/y %) Monthly inflation eased in April withheadline inflation rising by 4.2% overthe year, while the trimmed mean roseslightly to 3.4%. This outcome wasslightly weaker than expected andbroadly inline with the RBA’s forecast.There has been some acceleration incategories most exposed to cost-pushinflation, however the breadth ofinflation remains narrow for now withthe second-round impacts of the fuelshock expected to materialise in thecoming months. Market pricing nowhas a 0% chance that the RBA will raiseinterest rates in their June meeting. ECONOMICGROWTH SLOWED IN Q1 Real GDP growth remained steady at2.5% over the year to Q1 2026. However,within the quarter there are signs ofslowing growth in this data whichlargely predates the Middle Eastconflict. Economic growth in Q1 waslargely driven by private investment indata centres, while householdconsumption remained relativelyrobust, rising by 0.5% in Q1. HOUSEHOLD SPENDING RESILIENTBUT RISKS AHEAD Australian consumer spending hasremained relatively resilient to datedespite the headwinds from threeconsecutive interest rate hikes and aspike in fuel prices. However, there arerisks ahead for consumer spending andconsumption. Higher inflation, interestrates and bracket creep are likely to seereal disposable incomes contract in Q2.While falling house prices in Sydneyand Melbourne may start to weigh onhousehold wealth, driving a pullback inhousehold consumption. Business indicators Businesses conditions weaken as the impacts from the Middle East conflict emerge Unemployment rate rises Consumer indicators Consumer spending remains resilient despite very weak confidence levels Consumer confidence remains weak Household spending, current prices (m/m)-1.1 Household spending, current prices (y/y) Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Inflation & interest rates Interest rate expectations fall in May, leading to a pullback in bond yields Source: Knight Frank Research, ABSNote: Data transitions from quarterly to monthly in April 2025. Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Financial markets US equity markets focused on the positive AI story, shipping rates rise despite lower oil prices Oil prices fall but shipping prices are rising Brent crude $US/b (LHS), Shipping rates-Baltic Exchange DryIndex (RHS) We like questions, if you’ve got one about our research, or would like some propertyadvice, we would like to hear from you. You canalsosubscribe to our research. Recent research Alistair ReadSenior Economist+61 450 831 899Alistair.Read@au.knightfrank.com Ben BurstonChief Economist+61 2 9036 6756Ben.Burston@au.knightfrank.com