领先指标2026年7月

Key economic and financial metrics impacting property markets RBA holds rates in June, inflationary pressurebroadens INFLATION PRESSURES BROADEN Inflation remains above the RBA targetAnnual growth headline and trimmed mean inflation (y/y %) Headline inflation fell to 4.0% over theyear to May which was softer thanexpected. However, trimmed meaninflation rose to 3.6% signalling awideningof inflationary pressuressince April. This reflected emergingsecond-order effects from the MiddleEast supply shock becoming morevisible in consumer prices.Lookingahead, theRBA will have a particularfocus ontheacceleration in housinginflation and rentsthat was evidentinMaygiven they are a sticky and largecomponent of the CPI basket. RBA HOLDS RATES IN JUNE A key watch point for the RBA willalsobehow persistent and broad thesesecond-round effects become, and howfast higher costs arepassed-through toprices in Q2 and Q3 inflation data.However, the RBA will welcome therecent fall in oil prices which willreduce inflationary pressures. TheRBAdecided unanimously to keep the cashrate steady at 4.35%in June.However,post-meeting commentsemphasisedthat the risks are skewed towardsfurther interest rate rises.Marketpricing reflects this, with arounda65%chance of one more hike by December. OIL PRICES FALL SHARPLY The US and Iran had a first round ofnegotiation talks in June as they seek toreach a deal to end the war. On 25 June,the US stated that crude oil flowsthrough the Strait of Hormuz are nowsimilar to what they were before thestart ofthe Iran war. Together this haseased supply concerns and driven asharp fall in oil prices tothelowest levelsince the conflictstarted. Real GDP growthAustralia key forecasts Business indicators Businesses conditions stabilise astensions in the Middle East ease further Source: Knight Frank Research, NAB Consumer indicators Consumer confidence remains weak however household spending remains resilient Consumer confidence remains weakConfidence index, value above 100 signal optimism Household spending, current prices (m/m)Household spending, current prices (y/y) Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Inflation & interest rates Impacts from the Middle East conflict flow through and drive inflationary pressure Source: Knight Frank Research, ABSNote: Data transitions from quarterly to monthly in April 2025. Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Financial markets US-Iran peace talks and increased flows through Strait of Hormuz drive sharp fall in oil prices Oil prices fall sharply with peace talksBrent crude $US/b (LHS), Shipping rates-Baltic Exchange Dry Index (RHS) AUD weakens in JuneAUD vs USD (LHS) and trade We like questions, if you’ve got one about our research, or would like some propertyadvice, we would like to hear from you. You canalsosubscribe to our research. Recent research Alistair ReadSenior Economist+61 450 831 899Alistair.Read@au.knightfrank.com Ben BurstonChief Economist+61 2 9036 6756Ben.Burston@au.knightfrank.com