领先指标2026年4月

Key economic and financial metrics impacting property markets RBA raises rates as energy prices drive inflation higher IRAN WAR DRIVES SPIKE IN OIL PRICES Steep rise in fuel pricesOil price (USD per barrel) versus The onset, and ensuing escalation, ofthe Iran conflict has been the key driverof financial markets in March. Theeffective closure of the Strait of Hormuzby Iran has led to a sharp rise in theprice of oil(around +50%since the startof the conflict), as well as prices for oilderivatives in Australia such as petrol(+48%) and diesel (+87%). Much of theworld is currently trading on oil stocksaccumulated before the war. However,these stocks are depleting, presenting alarge downside risk to Australia’seconomy. The key risk for the RBA isthe second-round effects of highertransport and material costs beingpassed through to other prices, as wellas keeping longer-term inflationexpectations anchored. terminal (wholesale)petrol and diesel price (c/litre) PetrolDieselOil (Brent crude) Oil prices expected to drive spike in inflation in Q2Growth headline inflation (sa) and trimmed mean inflation, and NAB and Westpac INFLATION EXPECTED TO RISE Thespike in oil prices will cause higherinflation. Initially, inflation will bedriven by higher fuel prices, followedby broader cost-push inflation asbusinesses pass through higher costs toconsumers. NAB’s baseline forecast isfor Q2 annual inflation of 4.90% if brentoil prices average US$100/bblin Q2,while Westpac’s baseline forecast is for5.5% inflation in Q2 with brent oilaveraging US$120/bbl. RBA RAISES INTEREST RATES This positive inflation shock comes at atime when inflation in the economywas already above the RBA target. As aresult, the RBA raised interest rates by25bps in May to 4.1%. Market pricinghas risen sharply, with two to threemore rate hikes priced in by the end of2026, up from around one in February. Business indicators Businesses were resilient before conflict, but rising costs and weakening demand a watchpoint PMIs fall as conflict raises costsCompositePMI Output Index (above 50 indicates expansion) Unemployment rate softens in February Consumer indicators Consumer confidence falls as fuel prices spike, but spending impact is not yet realised in data Broad-based rise in household spendingAnnual growth invalue of spending by category* Household spending softens in January (%) Annual growth in value of spending by state (%) Source: Knight Frank Research, MacrobondDashed line represents consumer sentiment in March for the last three days ofthe survey only. Inflation & interest rates ImpactofIran war yet to flow through to inflation data, but interest rates and bond yields rise Inflation was elevated before the war began Annual growth headline and trimmed mean inflation (y/y %) Source: Knight Frank Research, ABSNote: Data transitions from quarterly to monthly in April 2025. Financial markets weaken with the sharp rise in risks and uncertainty from Iran conflict Brent oil has largest monthly rise on record Brent crude $US/b (LHS), Shipping rates-Baltic Exchange DryIndex (RHS) Rising globalrisks weighs on AUDAUD vs USD (LHS) and trade-weighted index (RHS) We like questions, if you’ve got one about our research, or would like some propertyadvice, we would like to hear from you. You canalsosubscribe to our research. Recent research Alistair ReadSenior Economist+61 450 831 899Alistair.Read@au.knightfrank.com Ben BurstonChief Economist+61 2 9036 6756Ben.Burston@au.knightfrank.com