中国工业领先指标：4月温和增长；贸易不确定性降低

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com19 - 20 May 2025 | Grand Hyatt TaipeiHSBC Taiwan Conference 2025Helen Fang*Head of Industrials Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhelen.c.fang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6942Corey Chan* (Reg. No. S1700518100001)Head, A-share Industrials & Renewables ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedcorey.chan@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 5066 2001Howard Lau*, CFAAnalyst, China MaterialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhoward.h.b.lau@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6625Amy Hu* (Reg. No. S1700520090001)Analyst, A-share Industrials & Renewables ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedruo.lin.hu@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 8898 3408Kenneth Chin*Associate, Asia IndustrialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedkenneth.t.k.chin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4521Sunny SUN*Associate, Asia IndustrialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedsunny.x.y.sun@hsbc.com.hk+852 3945 3230Dun Wang*, CFA, CPA (Reg. No. S1700519060002)Analyst, A-share Industrials & Renewables ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limiteddun.wang@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 5066 2027Jennifer Pan*AssociateGuangzhou* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesIndustrialsChina Register 2Our preferred Buy-rated stocksAnalystSectorStockTickerHelen Fang*MachineryTechtronic669 HKMachineryWeichaiPowerH/A2338 HK/000338 CHMachineryAirtac1590 TTHoward Lau*MaterialsChinaHongqiao1378 HKAmy Hu*MachineryXCMG000425 CHRMB8.47Corey Chan*ElectricalEquipmentLeadIntelligent300450CHRMB20.45Note: Priced at close of16May2025*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. and not registered/qualified pursuant toFINRA regulationsSource: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimatesSummary of key long-term leading indicatorsSummary of key long-term leading indicatorsLeading indicatorLeads what?Leads byProperty inventory monthly y-o-ychange (top 80 cities inmainland China)Excavator andloader salesvolume6-9 monthsProperty transaction volumemonthly y-o-y growthExcavator andloader salesvolume5-6 monthsProperty transaction volumemonthly y-o-y growthProperty newstarts3-6 monthsJapan exports of machine toolsto mainland China (JMTBA),monthly y-o-y growthMainland Chinaautomationdemand3-6 monthsSource: HSBC estimates Current statusProperty inventory inMarch2025wasdown5.25%y-o-y, declinenarrowedversusFebruary2025down5.43% y-o-yProperty area sold inApr2025wasdown 2.1%y-o-y, versusMar2025-0.9% y-o-yProperty area sold inApr2025wasdown 2.1%y-o-y, versusMar2025-0.9% y-o-yExports to mainland China inMarch2025were+42.2%y-o-y, growthacceleratedvsFebruary2025at+16.9%y-o-y Macro data summaryFAI growthmoderatedinApril2025:Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth in mainland China(exhibit 5)narrowedto +3.5% y-o-y inApril2025(vs+4.3% y-o-y inMarch2025). ManufacturingFAI growthnarrowedto+8.2% y-o-y inApril2025(vs+9.2%y-o-y inMarch2025). Totalinfrastructure investment (exhibit 6, including utilities)growthnarrowedto +9.6% y-o-y inApril2025(vs+12.6% y-o-y inMarch2025).Property numbersfurther declinedinApril2025:National property transaction volume (areasold)was down2.1% y-o-y inApril2025(vsdown0.9% y-o-y inMarch2025; exhibit 1).Propertynew starts (exhibit 3) continued to decline, down by22.1% y-o-y inApril2025(vsdown18.1%y-o-y inMarch2025).Exhibit 4 shows that property inventory from a sample of 80 major cities inmainland China wasdownby5.25% y-o-y inMarch2025(vsdown5.43% y-o-y inFebruary2025). According to the Ministry of Finance, local government funded revenue growth from stateland sales wasdown17% inMarch2025(vsdown16% inFebruary2025).Electricity generationgrowthslowdowninApril2025:Electricity generation (exhibit 7)increased by0.9% y-o-yinApril2025(vsup1.8% y-o-yinMarch2025).Also,note thatsolarequipment and electric vehicle manufacturing (since May 2020) have seen strong powerconsumption growth.China construction machinery–domesticrecovery continues:Domestic recovery hasexpanded from excavators to truck cranes and concrete machines, while aerial workingplatforms and tower cranes remained weak. We expect the domestic recovery will continue,driven by steady infrastructure investment, policy support on machine renewal andelectrification, and a low base effect. Also, following steady c5-15% overseas sales growth in1Q25, we expect growth to continue in 2-4Q25 and the drivers to come from Africa, LatAm,Southeast Asia, and the Middle East(seeChina construction machinery: 1Q25 summary: Wereiterate our positive view,14May2025).ChinaHDT–expect subsidy policy to take effect gradually in 2Q25:We maintain our2025e HDT sector sales volume of 950k units, of which 650k/300k units are for thedomestic/export markets, respectively. While 1Q25 HDT sector sales volumewas down, wethink the truck subsidy policy will support domestic HDT sales in 2Q25, especially