领先指标2025年8月

knightfrank.com.au/research GDPgrowth Unemploymentrate CoreCPIinflation Cashratetarget 10-yearbondyield (Q12025,y/y%) (June2025,%) (Q22025,y/y%) (July2025,%) (31July2025,%) Latest 1.3 4.3 2.7 3.85 4.3 Year-end2025(f)* 1.9 4.4 2.7 3.35 4.2 Latest Lastquarter 1yearago Jul-25 Apr-25 Jan-25 Oct-24 Jul-24 Jun-25 Mar-25 Dec-24 Sep-24 Jun-24 Australia 53.6 51.0 51.1 50.2 49.9 Australia 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 China 0.0 51.1 51.1 51.9 51.2 NSW 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 EuroArea 51.0 50.4 50.2 50.0 50.2 Vic 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 Japan 51.5 51.2 51.1 49.6 52.5 Qld 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.1 UK 51.0 48.5 50.6 51.8 52.8 WA 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.8 US 54.6 50.6 52.7 54.1 54.3 LatestinJun-25 m/m(%) y/y(%) Jun-25 Mar-25 Dec-24 Sep-24 Jun-24 Cafes,Restaurants&TakeawayFoodServices -0.4 6.9 Retailsalesvolume(q/q,%) 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 HouseholdGoods 2.3 6.0 Retailsalesvolumes(y/y,%) 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.2 -0.3 Clothing,Footwear&PersonalAccessoryRetailing 1.5 5.9 Retailcurrentprices(y/y,%) 4.1 4.0 3.6 2.6 2.1 OtherRetailing 1.9 5.6 Total 1.2 4.9 DepartmentStores 1.9 4.0 FoodRetailing 0.9 3.3 Percentagechangefrom LatestinJun-25 Mar-25 Dec-24 Sep-24 Jun-24 Vic 1.5% 3.0% 4.3% 5.8% Qld 3.4% 3.2% 4.0% 5.5% WA 1.7% 3.3% 4.3% 5.3% Aus 1.7% 2.7% 3.7% 4.9% SA 0.8% 2.1% 3.9% 4.1% NSW 1.2% 2.0% 2.9% 4.1% ACT 1.8% 3.1% 3.1% 2.7% Tas 0.0% 1.0% 2.7% 2.3% Australia US UK Euroarea Jun-25 Mar-25 Dec-24 Sep-24 Jun-24 Jun-25 Mar-25 Dec-24 Sep-24 Jun-24 HeadlineCPI(q/q,%) 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.2 1.0 Australia(y/y,%)2.1 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.8 HeadlineCPI(y/y,%) 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.8 US(y/y,%)2.7 2.4 2.9 2.4 3.0 Trimmedmeaninflation(y/y,%) 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.6 4.0 UK(y/y,%)3.6 2.6 2.6 1.7 2.0 Euroarea(y/y,%)2.0 2.2 2.4 1.7 2.5 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 Jul-25 Apr-25 Jan-25 Oct-24 Jul-24 Cashratetarget 3.85 2-yearswap3.52 3.54 3.88 3.86 4.25 OxfordEconomics 3.60 3.35 3.35 3.35 5-yearswap3.73 3.72 4.16 4.01 4.28 NAB 3.60 3.35 3.10 3.10 10-yearbond4.30 4.27 4.48 4.25 4.34 Marketpricing 3.51 3.25 3.14 3.10 Monthlyaverage Month-end Percentagechangefrom Apr-25 Jan-25 Oct-24 Jul-24 ASX200 10.8% 3.7% 5.0% 9.3% S&P500 17.3% 5.4% 8.7% 13.7% Nasdaq 24.7% 6.3% 13.4% 15.6% EuroSTOXX50 8.9% 8.5% 10.9% 11.9% FTSE350 9.4% 6.8% 8.0% 8.6% Monthlyaverage IndexLatestPercentagechangefrom Gold3,3035.7%26.8%25.4%42.0% Jun-25Mar-25Dec-24Sep-24Jun-24 IronOre96.2-7.2%-8.7%-0.1%-11.0% LNG13.0-1.2%-8.9%-1.0%4.8% Monthlyaverage Latest USDperAUD 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.67 0.67 Jul-25Apr-25Jan-25Oct-24Jul-24 Tradeweightedindex60.42.1%0.9%-3.0%-4.8% Percentagechangefrom Monthlyaverage