领先指标2025年12月

Key economic and financial metrics impacting property markets Rising inflation clouds direction of next rate move INFLATION SURPRISES AGAIN The ABS’s new monthly CPI data camein much higher than expected withannual headline inflation rising 3.8% inOctober and trimmed mean inflationrose by 3.3%. Although the RBA willplace more weight on the quarterly CPIreading during this data transition,elevated and broad-based inflationpressures in this new monthly inflationmeasure will not be ignored. This dataindicates upside risk to the RBA’srecent inflation forecasts. RISE IN CASH RATE EXPECTATIONS Over 2025, cash rate expectations fell toa low of 2.9% following the US tariffannouncement in April. However, thesehave substantially unwound over H22025 with the RBA now more hawkishon the outlook for inflation andemployment easinginline withexpectations.Following the Octoberinflation print, market pricing indicatesthat the next move in the cash rate maybe a hike, not a cut. HOUSE PRICE GROWTH MAY SUPPORTCONSUMPTION REBOUND New lending for dwellingsrosesharplyin Q3, driven by increased demandfrom investors. This indicates growinghousing demand, which has alreadybegun to translate into house priceswhich grew 7.5% in the year to Nov-25.Another cyclical upswing in houseprices could boost household wealth,consumption, and support GDP growth.Modelling in the RBA November SoMPestimated that a 10% increase in houseprices increases GDP by 0.7% (all otheraspects held constant), of which around0.4% reflects increased consumption. Business indicators Business confidence and conditions continue to show positive signs Consumer indicators Household spending continues to steadily improve Consumer sentiment turns positive Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Inflation & interest rates Increased inflation risks drive a pullback in rate cut expectations Source: Knight Frank Research, ABSNote: Data transitions from quarterly to monthly in April 2025. Source: Knight Frank Research, Macrobond Financial markets Global financialmarketswerevolatileinNovember subscribeWe like questions, if you’ve got one about our research, or would like some propertyadvice, we would like to hear from you. You canalsosubscribe to our research. Recent research Alistair ReadSenior Economist+61 450 831 899Alistair.Read@au.knightfrank.com Ben BurstonChief Economist+61 2 9036 6756Ben.Burston@au.knightfrank.com