干散货运价月报

目录 【【【【【【................................................................................2【【【【【【................................................................................2 第二部分基本面情况....................................................................................3 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【BDI【【【【【【【【【【【..............................................................................................3 【【【【【6【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【Capesize【【【【【【【【【【...................................................................................9【【【【【7【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【..............................................................................................12【【【【【7【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【.....................................................................................20 第三部分分析与展望..................................................................................25 免责声明.......................................................................................................26 市场步入传统需求淡季，7月运价呈现宽幅震荡 第一部分前言概要 【行情回顾】 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428号研究员：贾瑞林电话：021-65789256邮箱：jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn期货从业资格证号：F3084078投资咨询资格证号：Z0018656 7【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【BDI【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2026【7【27【【BDI【【【2696【【【【【【19.45%【 作者承诺 本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑均基于本人的职业理解，通过合理判断得出结论，本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观点。本报告所载的全部内容只提供给客户做参考之用，并不构成对客户的投资建议。 【市场展望】 【【8【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 风险提示：中东地缘风险外溢、几内亚雨季持续、中澳铁矿长协谈判破裂 第二部分基本面情况 一、需求逐渐走弱难以支撑海运费率高位，月内BDI指数呈现冲高回落的态势 7月干散货市场整体呈现宽幅震荡的态势。尽管月末需求减弱难以支撑BDI综合指数延续高位运行，但运价中枢仍维持在历年同期高位。【【【【【7【BDI【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【下半月【市场呈现明显的结构性分化【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【/【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【8【【干散货市场预计延续震荡态势。一方面，随着钢厂季节性检修结束以及巴西矿石发运旺季逐渐开启，运输需求回暖有望提振大船市场并带动租金走高【【【【【【关注煤炭、粮食等小宗散货货盘的释放节奏对于中小船市场运价的支撑力度。【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【2026【7【27【【BDI【2696【【【【+19.45%【7【BDI【【【【2789.84【【【【【【+0.54%【【【BCI【4200【【【【+9.69%【【【【4244.35【【【【【【-1.09%【BPI【1999【【【【+8.76%【【【【2190.25【【【【【【-0.23%【BSI【1670【【【【+29.06%【【【【1699.20【【【【【+3.02%【 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 干散货运价月报 2026年7月31日 7月BCI指数同样呈现冲高回落的态势【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【7【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【预计8月随着钢企季节性检修结束以及巴西传统发运高峰的来临，大船运价有望呈现震荡走强的态势。 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2026【7【24【【C3【【【【-【【【【【34.68【【/【【【【+40.4%【C5【【【-【【【12.855【【/【【【【+21.6%【【【【【【【【【【【 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 巴拿马型船运价走势虽整体跟随Cape市场，但波动幅度明显偏弱。【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【BPI【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【2026【7【24【【P6【【【【-【【【【【【【【【【【【【【18413【【/【【【【+17.7%【P3A【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【14541【【/【【【【+3.8%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 灵便型船市场方面，7月整体呈现窄幅震荡态势。受地缘风险外溢带来吨海里需求显著增加的影响，当前运价中枢已远高于历年同期水平【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【2026【7【24【【S2【【【-【【/【【【【【【【【【【【【【【18619【【/【【【【+26.7%【S3【【【-【【【【【【【【【【【20450【【/【【【【+37.2%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 二、供给：6月干散货交付运力环比大幅下降，下半年Capesize将成为新船交付的主力 【【【【【6【【【【【【【【【【【39【【299【【【【【【【-32.57%【【【-0.06%【【【【【【【【【【6【【【【【【【【【【【【【66【【【【568【【【【【6【【【【【【【150.8【【【【【【【【【【【【13.9%【 【【【【【【【【【【2026【7【【【【【【【【【【【1086.6【【【【【【【【+3.29%【【【Capesize【【【【410.3【【【【【【【【37.76%【【【+1.43%【Panamax【【【【279.66【【【【【【【【25.74%【【【+5.17%【Handymax【【【【261.27【【【【【【【【24.04%【【【+4.07【Handysize【【【【135.41【【【【【【【【12.46%【 干散货运价月报 【【+3.7%【