日本半导体2026年第二季度财报预览：涨价利好即将显现

Japan Semis Earnings Preview (2Q CY26): Materializing the pricehike upside companies basedona set of data sources that wetrackandproprietarymethodsto derivethe expected results.Thedata pack is availableuponrequest. +85229185704david.dai@bernsteinsg.cor +81367776980juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Semi/Equipmentpulledback~2O%fromtherecentpeakbutarestillup77%YTDandnowtradesat 35x average P/E.However,1.sell-side EPSis stale and the buy-sideP/Eis likelymuch lower, 2. EPS is likelyto grow steeply in the next 2-3 years, as confirmed by ASMLto work,the companies must guide well to meetthe heightened expectations, which did notcome down with share prices +8522123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.con Carmine Milano,CFA+442077621857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Forequipmentcompanies,WFEgrowthand pricing/margin expansionaretwomajorfocuses.WFEis clearly strongtowards 2028,as suggestedbyASMLandTSMC guidance,and investors still like front end equipment companies first before shifting to$200/25Obn,respectively,sotheupside ismore onmargins and idiosyncrasy.TEL,ScreenandKokusaiall havepotential to raiseequipmentprices given the yendepreciation,and investors expectmarginexpansionin2H,andexpectcompaniesto raiseguidanceaccordingly. However, considering that it's 1Q earnings, we'd expect more upside in thenextguidance,exceptforKokusaiwhichshouldraisefullyearguidance.TELmayraise2027WFEwhich wouldalsobe a plus.Lasertec will provide27/6guidancebutmight notbeat investors heightened expectations of￥380-400bn orders,unless it's willingto guidefortheA2OOupside.Conversely,AdvantestislikelytobeatandraiseOP,andanymentiorof CPU/CPOtestingwouldbepotentialupside.DISco ifguidingforQoQshipmentgrowthwould also see upward revision. For non-equipmentnames,pricehikefromshortageisstill thekeyword.Renesasisexpected tobenefit from the price hike and see margin expansion in 3Q/4Q.SUMco 2Qresults are likely inline for 10% revenue QoQ, but it's all about LTA negotiation color (whichwe don't see muchto be provided)to drive share price movements here. Ibiden corrected39% from peak partially due to the potential Rubin Ulitra 2-die change, but Rubin is rampingHoya results are likely solid with strong EUV and HDD substrate demand and sharegain;share price has been more resilient in the correction,but there is a lack oftorquefrom priceupside for HDD substrates. OnFX,JPYdepreciatesfurther,with2QCY26USDJPYat￥159.43vs.￥156.88(1.6%depreciation),this would be a slight tailwind for most companies.2Q26 QTD is showingfurther JPY depreciation to ￥162.16 (+1.7%).In our view, Ibiden, DISCO,Advantest,SUMCO and Renesas are likely to benefit more from the FX sensitivity INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS We rate Advantest (PT=￥39,200), Kokusai (PT=￥8,240.00), Tokyo Electron (PT=￥59,200), DISC0 (PT=￥85,000), Lasertec WerateScreen(PT=￥12,600)andSUMCO(PT=￥3,190.00)Market-Perform. TOKYOELECTRON TokyoElectron will publish1Q27results on Thursday3oth July Q1missseemslikely-BothourSEAJdatatrackerand importdatapointtoabelow-consensusQ1between￥596bn(-15%QoQ)to￥672bn (-4% QoQ)SPEsalesfor TEL.As the biggestWFEmanufacturerin Japan,there isan abundance of data pointstotrackTEL,andwebelieveSEAJ/China import/Taiwan import/SouthKorean import/US import data collectivelyhavegood prediction power (Exhibit 6-Exhibit 13). Although, worth highlighting is the fact that underlying import data was mostly upQoQ(Taiwan up19%,PRC up34%,SouthKorea down10%),but our regression is suggestingQoQdeclinedueto the usualseasonality.In any case, the annual revenue cadence should improve into Q2 andfurther into 2H, so Q1 miss shouldn't come astoomuchofadisappointment. Guidance raise - On the earnings call the key data point would be the guidance - company suggested several times in Q1thattheir current WFEguidance of 15%mayhave beenlow-so we expect them to raise it probably to 20% and guide for20%+growthfor TEL.Recent earnings from ASML and TSMC are also raising thebar for TEL's guidance revision. Margin and pricing-The biggest debate in Q1 was how TEL can manage to hike their pricing (including more details onthe different surcharges that they have mentioned), and the magnitude of such pricing upside TEL could see. We expectmanagement to discuss some ofthe implications of such pricing revision and how it could reflect on improved margin outlooks.While we could see 2H margin upside, we don't expect this upside to materialize in Q2 guidance. EXHIBIT 6: SEAJdata suggests a QoQ decline for C2Q26, and thedata has decent directional correlation with TEL. Import DataEXHIBIT 7:Based on regression, we expect TEL's SPE revenuefromTaiwan,PRC,Koreaand USto be collectively ?579bn. in CQ2 implies a 86.2% mix from the 4 major regions,and is in line with historical trend. Chinaimport EXHIBIT 10: China import for C2Q26 suggests a QoQuptick,and the dataset shows good directional correlation withTEL. Taiwan import SouthKoreaimport ADVANTEST Advantest will publish 1Q27 results on Wednesday 29th July. ExpectslightQ1beat-Ourmont