日本和欧盟半导体行业：台湾SPE进口增长58%

Japan/EU Semi Taiwan Import Tracker (Jun 26): SPE import +58%YoY have extracted and analyzed relevant information that has strong significance for ourcoveragecompanies.TherelevantTaiwanSPEimportdata canbedownloadedhere:TaiwanSPEImport. +85229185704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com +81367776980juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com was +58% globally /+44%from Japan.MoM shows a strong uptick fromMay-globallyJapan SPE.The strong capex fromTaiwan foundry continues todrive strongYoY growth,whichsupportsourpositiveviewonJapan/EUSPE +4420 77621857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com +85221232683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com +4%MoM in Testerimport.Advantest SoCtester revenue is highly correlatedtotheTaiwan tester import data which was up +4% MoM,and +6% YoY.3-month average was-6%MoM.Our regression analysis suggests+5%QoQforAdvantestTaiwan sales with3-month data, whichsuggests slightupsideto consensus JunQ revenue of+2% QoQ. JuneTWlithoimportswereverystrongat1.2bn,up120%MoMandup44%YoY.Onaquarterlybasis,importswere2.62bn,up~80%QoQ.ThiswaslargelydrivenbytheverystrongJune imports,thethird-highestmonthlylevelonrecord.Our84% sequentially and 36% YoY,representing the second-strongest quarter on record forASMLTW system sales.This implies that Taiwan will account for 42% of the overall systemsales.TaiwanlithographydemandappearstobegainingmomentumasTSMC's capacityexpansionprogresses Strong MoM growth forTEL.The Taiwan import data for the relevant categories to TEL(CVD, dry etching, cleaning, coater & developer, RTP, etc.)suggests a strong June for TEL'sTaiwan revenue. June single-month was up +57% MoM, and +107% YoY; 3-month movingaveragewas+6%sequentially.Our regression suggests-1%QoQforTEL's JunQ Taiwanrevenue with a slight downsideto consensus of +8% QoQ. Cleaning equipment recovers.Taiwan cleaner import data is +37% MoM and+58% YoY.3-month moving averageis+3%sequentially.Our regression suggests+16%QoQforScreen's JunQTaiwanrevenue,withupside toconsensusof-14%QoQ TaiwansemiequipmentimportinJun2026sawstrongMoMrebound,withYoYgrowthof+58%globally/+44%YoYfrom Japan; MoM was +46% globally and +67% from Japan (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 2). :AdvantestSoCtesterrevenueishighlycorrelatedtotheTaiwantesterimport(Exhibit4).TW importoftestersinJunefrom Japan and Malaysia was collectively+4% MoM and +6% YoY.3-month average data is-6% MoM (Exhibit 3)..Our regression indicates a JunQ TaiwansalesforAdvantest of+5% QoQ (Exhibit 5,Exhibit 6), with slight upsidevs. consensusJunQrevenueof+2%QoQ. EXHIBIT 4:Taiwantester imports data shows good directional correlationwithAdvantest'sTaiwan sales. with Taiwan import data. estimates and analysis imports were 2.62bn, up ~80% QoQ.This was largely driven by the very strong June imports, the third-highest monthlylevel on record. As highlighted in previous reports, monthly import data tend to be lumpy (Exhibit 7)..Taiwan's3M lithography importdata showsa strongcorrelationwithASML'sTaiwansystemsales,withanR2of 81%.Our regressionbased on3-month imports indicates Taiwanquarterlysystem sales for ASMLof 2.66bn, rising 84%sequentiallyand36%YoY,representingthesecond-strongestquarteronrecordforASMLTWsystemsales..ThisimpliesthatTaiwanwillaccountfor42%oftheoverall systemsales,whichareexpectedtoreachapproximately6.35bn inQ2-upfrom23%lastquarterand from 35% in Q22025.Taiwan lithographydemand appearsto be gaining momentum as TSMC's capacityexpansion progresses (Exhibit 8, Exhibit 9, Exhibit 10). 2.66bn,representa84%QoQincreaseandandup36% on anannual basis.This implies that Taiwan willour regression estimatesASML'sTaiwan system sales at accountfor42%of the overall system sales,which areexpected to reach 6.35bn in Q2.enue (EUR Mn1QFY262QFY26EQoQ correlation withASML's system sales inTaiwan,with anR?of81%.Basedon2.62bnofTW lithoimports inQ2,2.66bn. EXHIBIT10:Basedonour regressionmodel,ASMLTWsystemsalesshouldreach2.66bninQ2,up84%sequentiallyand36%YoY.Thiswouldrepresent the second-strongestquarter on record forASMLTW systemsales. .TEL makes many equipments (CVD,dry etching, cleaning, coater & developer,RTP,etc.)and we try to group all the categories together.The Taiwan importdata for the relevant categories has relativelyhigh correlation with TEL's Taiwan revenue.But it'snot perfect as MoF doesn't report import by countryfor some categories (Exhibit 12). month moving average was +6% sequentially (Exhibit 11).· consensussalesof+8%QoQ. 2016-2026:TELTaiwanRevenuevs.TaiwanWFEImports with Taiwan import data. SCREEN-TAIWANIMPORT DATA :TheTaiwan cleaner importdata has relativelyhighcorrelation with Screen's Taiwan revenue.But it's notperfectas MoFdoesn't report cleaner import by country. Instead, there is only global import data, and the correlation is weaker (Exhibit 16) The cleaner importdata showed recovery.June importwas+37%MoM,andYoYwas+58%.3-monthmovingaveragewas+3% sequentially (Exhibit 15). -14%Q0Q.EXHIBIT15:Junecleaning SPEimportgloballywas $183mn, +58%MoM. estimates and analysis References to"Bernstein" or theFirm" in thes