全球半导体设备追踪（2月26日）：日本SPE同比降3%，东京电子承压，爱德万积极

Global Semicap Tracker (Feb 26): Japan SPE -3% YoY; -ve TEL, +veAdvantest This tracker analyzes the billings data released by SEAJ whose members are Japanesesuppliers & represent ~25% of the global wafer fab equipment (WFE) market. SEAJ releasedFebruary data on March 31st (dataset can be downloaded atSEAJ+SEMI Model). Japan SPE saw negative YoY in February with Japan SPE billing of -3% in USD(-3%in JPY). This is to be expected and in-line with our import data, as Taiwan, South Korea andPRC all observed the Lunar New Year this year instead of last year’s January. 3M averagebilling was relatively stable at +2% MoM / +5% YoY in USD (-1% MoM / +3% YoY in JPY).Sequentially, February single month data was +5% MoM in JPY. By equipment type, Japan front end equipment revenue (relevant to TEL) was -17% YoYin February. Assembly equipment revenue (relevant to DISCO) was +7% YoY in February.Testing equipment (relevant to Advantest) showed growth of +36% YoY in February. On asequential basis, testing equipment is -21% MoM and 3M average was -12%. For TEL, SEAJ data suggests downside to FQ4.Our regression suggests TEL's FQ4revenue will be +12% QoQ, below the consensus of +24% QoQ. Note that SEAJ data hasgood R2(0.90) with the first 2 month of data. We expect TEL revenue to grow strongly inthe next FY driven by strong DRAM and advanced logic capex but would flag the near termdownside. For Advantest, SEAJ data suggests upside to FQ4.Regression suggests Advantest’srevenue will be +19% QoQ, above the consensus of +3% QoQ. Note that SEAJ data hashigh R2(0.99) with the first 2 month of data. We forecast global WFE to be +18.5% YoY in CY2026, and +11.8% in CY2027(WFEModel,Report Link).We expect CY2026 will see strong foundry and DRAM spending. Webelieve the Japanese equipment companies will benefit from the rise of memory capex, andthere should be more upside. Wemaintain our Outperform on Disco, Tokyo Electron, Kokusai and LasertecwithinJapan semi. Within our US coverage wemaintain our Outperform on LRCX, AMAT andKLAC. For Chinese semicap, wemaintain our Outperform on NAURA, AMEC, andPiotech. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Tokyo Electron: Outperform, PT=¥56,800.TEL is the #4 SPE supplier globally and the biggest Japanese SPE supplier withmajor presence in 6 product segments. It is expected to gain share and expand margins with competitive pricing after yendepreciation. DISCO: Outperform, PT=¥70,800.DISCO is the dominant supplier of grinders and dicers with ~85% market share. Thegrowing usage of dicers/grinders driven by advanced packaging is sustainable, especially for HBM and CoWoS in the near term,and hybrid bonding for HBM/3D stacking NAND/backside power delivery network in the midterm. Kokusai: Outperform, PT=¥8,620.00.Batch ALD should see more adoption in advanced nodes especially GAA (gate-all-around). The biggest use of batch ALD is in NAND, and NAND capex recovery is accelerating. Lasertec: Outperform, PT=¥41,000. As major supplier for mask inspection (~50% share) and sole supplier for actinicinspection, Lasertec delivered phenomenal growth in the past, but saw deceleration in recent years. We expect reaccelerationfrom TAM expansion driven by the new A200HiT tool penetrating more actinic inspection at wafer fabs. Advantest: Market-Perform, PT=¥26,000.Benefits from rising testing intensity for HBM and Blackwell. As the dominantsupplier for HBM tester (~65%) and Nvidia AI GPU (100% share), Advantest is able to lift the ASP and margin with productmigration, especially with HBM4 in 2025. Screen: Market-Perform, PT=¥21,600.Leading supplier in cleaning equipment with the lowest valuation in our coverage, butalso the one with the least specific growth drivers. Cleaning intensity is not increasing, and the market is competitive with bothglobal rivals (TEL, Lam) and Chinese (ACMR, Naura). Declining China revenue contribution presents margin downside risk. AMAT (Outperform, $425.00):We maintain a positive view on secular WFE growth and see a number of drivers for AMATincluding SAM growth, an increasing services narrative, and capital return. LRCX (Outperform, $285.00):The company is benefiting from key inflections (GAA, packaging, HBM, NAND upgrades) andCY26 commentary seems supportive. KLAC (Outperform, $1,835.00):Amid positive WFE trends KLAC posseses structural growth drivers, a strong and durablecompetitive position, lower China replacement risk, and disciplined capital allocation, warranting premium valuation. NAURA (Outperform, CNY 650.00): As the domestic WFE leader, NAURA has the broadest product portfolio coveringDeposition (PVD, CVD), Dry Etch (ICP), Thermo Processes, and Cleaning, as well as a more diverse client base covering leadinglogic, DRAM, NAND players, benefiting from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain. AMEC (Outperform, CNY 460.00): Primarily focus on Dry Etch (CCP, ICP) with rapid expansion in Deposition (ALD, LPCVD,EPI), commonly perceived