全球半导体设备跟踪报告（2025年11月）：日本半导体生产设备同比下降3%，再度出现负增长月份

Global Semicap Tracker (Nov 25): Japan SPE -3% YoY, anothernegative month David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704This tracker analyzes the billings data released by SEAJ whose members are Japanesesuppliers & represent ~25% of the global wafer fab equipment (WFE) market. SEAJ releasedNovember data on December 26th (dataset can be downloaded atSEAJ+SEMI Model). Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917 Japan SPE continued negative growth in November with Japan SPE billing at -4% YoY in USD(-3% in JPY). 3M average billing was relatively stable at -1% MoM / +5% YoY inUSD (+2% MoM / +4% YoY in JPY). Sequentially, November single month data was +13%MoM in JPY. Year-to-date, Japan SPE is +12% YoY. We think it’s related to the timing ofinvestment: TSMC and memory companies are all raising capex next year, but 4Q might be a Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654 weak quarter before more capex is added.By equipment type, Japan front end equipment revenue (relevant to TEL) was +1% YoYin November, and YTD +3.4% YoY. Assembly equipment revenue (relevant to DISCO) was+6% YoY in November, and YTD +8.0% YoY. Testing equipment (relevant to Advantest) Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454 For TEL, SEAJ data suggests downside to FQ3.Our regression suggests TEL's FQ3revenue will be -12% QoQ, below the consensus of -2% QoQ. Note that this is just first 2months of data, but SEAJ data has good R2(0.90) with the first 2 months of data. Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461 Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694 revenue will be down -2% QoQ, above the consensus of -22% QoQ. Note that this is just 2months of data, but SEAJ data has high R2(0.99) with the first 2 months of data.We forecast global WFE to be +10% YoY in CY2025, and +10% in CY2026(WFE Model,Report Link).We expect that CY2025 will see stronger-than-expected Chinaspending as well as DRAM. We believe the Japanese equipment companies are seeingweaker revenue in China due to product / customer mix, but next year with the rise of Wemaintain our Outperform on Tokyo Electron and Kokusaiwithin Japan semi. Withinour US coverage wemaintain our Outperform on both LRCX and AMAT. For Chinesesemicap, wemaintain our Outperform on NAURA, AMEC, and Piotech. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Tokyo Electron: Outperform, PT=¥39,400.TEL is the #4 SPE supplier globally and the biggest Japanese SPE supplier with depreciation. DISCO: Outperform, PT=¥60,800.DISCO is the dominant supplier of grinders and dicers with ~85% market share. Thegrowing usage of dicers/grinders driven by advanced packaging is sustainable, especially for HBM and CoWoS in the near term, Kokusai: Outperform, PT=¥5,360.00.Batch ALD should see more adoption in advanced nodes especially GAA (gate-all-around). The biggest use of batch ALD is in NAND, and NAND capex recovery is accelerating. supplier for HBM tester (~65%) and Nvidia AI GPU (100% share), Advantest is able to lift the ASP and margin with productmigration, especially with HBM4 in 2025. Screen: Market-Perform, PT=¥13,600.Leading supplier in cleaning equipment with the lowest valuation in our coverage, butalso the one with the least specific growth drivers. Cleaning intensity is not increasing, and the market is competitive with both Lasertec: Market-Perform, PT=¥26,300.As major supplier for mask inspection (~50% share) and sole supplier for actinic inspection, Lasertec delivered phenomenal growth in the past, but we anticipate the revenue growth to decelerate to 12.6% inthe next 3 years as ACTIS enters its 5thyear. KLA’s potential launch of actinic inspection presents a major threat. AMAT (Outperform, $260.00):We maintain a positive view on secular WFE growth and see a number of drivers for AMATincluding SAM growth, an increasing services narrative, and capital return. NAURA (Outperform, CNY 600.00): As the domestic WFE leader, NAURA has the broadest product portfolio coveringDeposition (PVD, CVD), Dry Etch (ICP), Thermo Processes, and Cleaning, as well as a more diverse client base covering leading logic, DRAM, NAND players, benefiting from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain. AMEC (Outperform, CNY 380.00): Primarily focus on Dry Etch (CCP, ICP) with rapid expansion in Deposition (ALD, LPCVD,EPI), commonly perceived as the domestic WFE company with the best technology and widest global recognition, continue tobenefit from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain. Piotech (Outperform, CNY 375.00): Rising domestic WFE vendor primarily focus on Deposition (PECVD, HDPCVD, SACVD,ALD) with expansion in W2W and C2W hybrid bonding equipment for advanced packaging. Piotech has a strong track record ofproduct innovation, which will allow it to benefit from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain. DETAILS This tracker analyzes the billings data released by SEAJ whose members are Japanese suppliers & represent ~25% of the globalwafer fab equipment (WFE) market. SEAJ released November data on Dec 26th (dataset can be download