全球半导体资本设备：全球半导体追踪报告（8月25日）：日本SPE同比增长8%，Advantest环比增长10%

全球半导体追踪器（8月25日）：日本SPE同比增长+8%，advantest环比增长+10% 从七月份的追踪报告，我们将分析方法升级，以分析更详细的细分市场，这具有更准确的预测能力，特别是针对TEL和Advantest。本追踪报告分析的是SEAJ发布的账单数据，其成员是日本供应商，代表了全球约25%的晶圆厂设备（WFE）市场。SEAJ于9月30日发布了八月份的数据（数据集可以下载在SEAJ+SEMI模型). 戴维·戴，CFA+852 2918 5704 david.dai@bernsteinsg.com 斯塔西·A·拉斯冈，博士+1 213 559 5917 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com 日本SPE增长在8月份继续，日本SPE计费为+7%（年同比），以美元计(+8% 同比日元). 3个月平均账单相对稳定，月环比为-2% / 同比为+25% 美元 (-1% 月环比 / 同比为+16% 日元)。环比来看，8月份单月数据日元为-2%。至本年累计，日本特殊目的实体同比增长+16%。 林庆元博士+852 2123 2654 qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com 按设备类型划分，日本前端设备收入（与TEL相关）8月份同比下降4.5%，年初至今同比增长5.8%。组装设备收入（与DISCO相关）8月份同比下降3.8%，年初至今同比增长7.9%。测试设备（与Advantest相关）8月份同比强劲增长51.6%，年初至今同比增长72.8%。按环比计算，测试设备增长10%，3个月移动平均增长2%。 阿尔里克·肖+1 917 344 8454 alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com 账单数据显示，东京电子（TEL）第二季度的收入可能将达到预期目标。回归显示TEL的公司收入将环比增长+3%，低于共识2 阿帕德·冯·内梅斯+1 917 344 8461 arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com 环比增长+8%。请注意，这只是前两个月的数据，但SEAJ数据与这前两个月的数据的相关系数为0.94，相关性良好。 郑翠+852 2123 2694 zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com 账单数据显示，艾迪抗特的收入有可能在第二季度超过预期。回归分析显示，安捷赛的营收环比将下降5%，高于-12%的普遍预期。2 请注意这只是2个月的数据，但SEAJ数据在最初的2-个月内具有很高的R值（0.98）。 我们预测2025年全球WFE将同比增长+6%，2026年将同比增长+5%(WFE模型,报告链接).2024年HBM及晶圆厂和中国的支出较高，我们预计2025年中国的支出将超出预期。我们预计日本的设备在中国可能会失去一些市场份额。 订阅高盛、大摩等海外投行最新研报一年只需要58，添加微信 tsla888nvda 可免费体验三天知识星球 订阅高盛、大摩等海外投行最新研报一年只需要58，添我们保持优于东京电子和日本电气在日本半内。在我们的美国覆盖范围内在 LRCX 和 AMAT 上保持优于对于中文半角逗号，我们在 NAURA、AMEC 和 Piotech 上保持领先. 伯恩斯坦行情表 6525.JP estimate is Reported EPS Total Equity (M) Total Provision (M) Employee benefit obligations Working Capital (M) Net Debt (Cash) (M) Gearing (%) Invested Capital (exc. Assoc)(M) Invested Capital (inc. Assoc)(M) Invested capital: other adjustments Average Invested Capital (exc. Assoc)(M) Average Invested Capital (inc. Assoc)(M) Taxation paid CFO excl Chg in Work Cap Change in Working Cap Requirement (M) CFO (M) Net capital expenditure Net Interest IncReceived/Expense Paid FCF (M) Acquisitions Disposals Cash flow from financing activities Share repurchase (FXmn) Dividends paid Cash flow from investingactivities Other movements in cash flow statement Other operating cash movements ESG Premium Revenues growth (%) Cost of Goods Sold (M) EBITDA (exc. associates) yoy growth (%) Income from associates / other income EBITDA (incl income from associates) Depreciation and amortisation EBIT yoy growth (%) EBIT Margin (%) Net Interest Income Tax Charge (M) Net income before minorities Pre-Tax Net Income Growth (%) Minority Interests Net Income Margin (%) Adjustments to assoc / other Exceptional Items Net Profit Before Non-Recurring Items Analysts Adjusted Net Income Growth (%) 12Month Forecast Dividend Normalised Tax Rate (%) Net Income Growth (%) Adjusted Net Income (M) EBIT After Normative Tax Rate (M) ROCE (%) ROE (%) ROIC (%) Dividend per Share Growth (%) Income from discontinued operations; 6857.JP, 7735.JP, 6920.JP estimate is Adjusted EPS EBITDA (M) Gross Profit (M) EPS Growth (%) Reported EPS Total Long-Term Assets Goodwill Other Intangible Assets (M) Tangible assets (incl. leased assets) Other long-term assets Total Equity (M) Minorities Total Provision (M) Employee benefit obligations Working Capital (M) Net Debt (Cash) (M) Gearing (%) Invested Capital (exc. Assoc)(M) Invested Capital (inc. Assoc)(M) Invested capital: other adjustments Average Invested Capital (exc. Assoc)(M) Average Invested Capital (inc. Assoc)(M) Taxation paid CFOexcl Chg in Work Cap Change in Working Cap Requirement (M) CFO (M) Net capital expenditure Net Interest Inc Received/Expense Paid FCF (M) Acquisitions Disposals Cash flow from financing activities Share repurchase (FXmn) Dividends paid Cash flow from investing activities Other movements in cash flow statement Other operating cash movements ESG Premium Revenues growth (%) Cost of Goods Sold (M) EBITDA (exc. associates) yoy growth (%) Income from associates / other income EBITDA (incl income from associates) Depreciation and amortisation EBIT yoy growth (%) EBIT Margin (%) Net Interest IncomeTax Charge (M) Net income before minorities Pre-Tax Net Income Growth (%) Minority Interests Net Income Margin (%) Adjustments to assoc / other Exceptional Items Net Profit Before Non-Recurring Items Analysts Adjusted Net Income Growth (%) 12Month Forecast Dividend Normalised Tax Rate (%) Net IncomeGrowth (%) Adjusted Net Income (M) EBIT After Normative Tax Rate (M) ROCE (%) ROE (%) ROIC (%) Dividend per Share Growth (%) Income from discontinued operations; AMAT, LRCX estimate is Adjusted EPS; AMAT, LRCX valuation is Adjusted P/E (x); LRCX base year is 2025; Source: Bloomberg, Bernsteinestimates and analysis. 订阅高盛、大摩等海外投行最新研报一年只需要58，添加微信 tsla888nvda 可免费体验三天知识星球 订阅高盛、大摩等海外投行最新研报一年只需要58，添投资影响 东京电子：跑赢，PT=¥29,400。TEL是全球第4大SPE供应商，也是最大的日本SPE供应商，在6个产品领域均有主要业务布局。日元贬值后，预计将凭借有竞争力的定价扩大市场份额和利润空间。 DISCO：表现优于，PT=¥52,800。DISCO是磨粉机和切片机的最主要的供应商，市场份额约为85%。切片机/磨粉机的使用量因先进封装而增长是可持续的，特别是对于近期的HBM和CoWoS，以及中期的HBM/3D堆叠NAND/背面电源分配网络混合键合。SiC目前面临削减，但在2025/26年的资本支出和消耗品方面存在上行潜力。 国际：超越，PT=¥3,570.00。批量原子层沉积技术应该在先进节点上得到更广泛的应用，尤其是在全环绕栅极（GAA）架构中。批量原子层沉积技术最大的应用领域是NAND，而NAND的资本支出（CAPEX）复苏正在加速。