全球半导体资本设备：全球半导体资本设备追踪（2025年4月）：同比增长8%；东京电子可能超出第一季度预期

www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRating8035.JP (Tokyo Electron)O6146.JP (DISCO)O6525.JP (Kokusai)O6857.JP (Advantest)M7735.JP (Screen)M6920.JP (Lasertec)UAMATOLRCXO688012.CH (AMEC)O002371.CH (NAURA)O688072.CH (Piotech)OJPLSPXASIAXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedAMAT, LRCX estimate is Adjusted EPS; AMAT, LRCX valuation is Adjusted P/E (x);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSTokyo Electron: Outperform, PT=¥33,800.TEL is the #4 SPE supplier globally and the biggest Japanese SPE supplier withmajor presence in 6 product segments. It is expected to gain share and expand margins with competitive pricing after yendepreciation.DISCO: Outperform, PT=¥41,300.DISCO is the dominant supplier of grinders and dicers with ~85% market share. Thegrowing usage of dicers/grinders driven by advanced packaging is sustainable, especially for HBM and CoWoS in the near term,and hybrid bonding for HBM/3D stacking NAND/backside power delivery network in the midterm. SiC is facing cuts now butpresents upside in 2025/26 capex and consumables.Kokusai: Outperform, PT=¥3,640.00.Batch ALD should see more adoption in advanced nodes especially GAA (gate-all-around). The biggest use of batch ALD is in NAND, and NAND capex recovery is accelerating.Advantest: Market-Perform, PT=¥7,060.00.Benefits from rising testing intensity for HBM and Blackwell. As the dominantsupplier for HBM tester (~65%) and Nvidia AI GPU (100% share), Advantest is able to lift the ASP and margin with productmigration, especially with HBM4 in 2025.Screen: Market-Perform, PT=¥11,300.Leading supplier in cleaning equipment with the lowest valuation in our coverage, butalso the one with the least specific growth drivers. Cleaning intensity is not increasing, and the market is competitive with bothglobal rivals (TEL, Lam) and Chinese (ACMR, Naura). Declining China revenue contribution presents margin downside risk.Lasertec: Underperform, PT=¥10,500.As major supplier for mask inspection (~50% share) and sole supplier for actinicinspection, Lasertec delivered phenomenal growth in the past, but we anticipate the revenue growth to decelerate to 12.6% inthe next 3 years as ACTIS enters its 5thyear. KLA’s potential launch of actinic inspection presents a major threat.AMAT (Outperform, $210.00):We maintain a positive view on secular WFE growth and see a number of drivers for AMATincluding SAM growth, an increasing services narrative, and capital return.LRCX (Outperform, $95.00): The company has come off the trough, CY25 commentary (along with valuation) is growing moresupportive, and a NAND upgrade cycle looks like it is starting.NAURA (Outperform, CNY 550.00): As the domestic WFE leader, NAURA has the broadest product portfolio coveringDeposition (PVD, CVD), Dry Etch (ICP), Thermo Processes, and Cleaning, as well as a more diverse client base covering leadingGLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR CAPITAL EQUIPMENT 2 logic, DRAM, NAND players, benefiting from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain.AMEC (Outperform, CNY 300.00): Primarily focus on Dry Etch (CCP, ICP) with rapid expansion in Deposition (ALD, LPCVD,EPI), commonly perceived as the domestic WFE company with the best technology and widest global recognition, continue tobenefit from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain.Piotech (Outperform, CNY 280.00): Rising domestic WFE vendor primarily focus on Deposition (PECVD, HDPCVD, SACVD,ALD) with expansion in W2W and C2W hybrid bonding equipment for advanced packaging. Piotech has a strong track record ofproduct innovation, which will allow it to benefit from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR CAPITAL EQUIPMENT 3 DETAILSThis tracker analyzes the billings data released by SEAJ whose members are Japanese suppliers & represent ~25% of the globalwafer fab equipment (WFE) market. SEAJ released April data on May 23th (dataset can be downloaded atSEAJ+SEMI Model).As usual, we examine the data on both a single-month and 3-month-average basis as the single-month data reflects near-terminflection on a more timely basis and the 3-month moving average reduces the influence of seasonality and reveals the underlyingtrend better. We also provide the read-across for Tokyo Electron (TEL) based on a regression analysis.April 3M average SPE billing grew +27% in USD (+15% YoY in yen). We forecast the WFE market to be flat inCY2025 & grow 6% to US$ 115bn in CY2026.•On 3-month basis, April billings of Japanese equipment suppliers was +27% YoY in USD (+15% YoY in JPY) and continuedthe cyclical upward swing that began in mid-CY2023 (Exhibit 1). Sequentially 3M average was+3%.•On single month basis, April billings of Japanese suppliers was at ¥353 bn (-42% MoM due to seasonally but +8% YoY)(Exhibit 2).•We forecast the WFE market to be flat in CY2025 at US$108bn & grow 6% in CY2025 to US$1