日本与欧盟半导体，日本/欧盟半导体台湾进口追踪（4月26日）：SPE进口同比增长30%，保持高位

Japan/EU Semi Taiwan Import Tracker (Apr 26): SPE importremains elevated at +30% YoY MOF Taiwan released Apr 2026 semiconductor equipment import data on May 9th David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com extracted and analyzed relevant information that has strong significance for our coveragecompanies.The relevant Taiwan SPE import data can be downloaded here:Taiwan SPEImport. Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.comCarmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com SPE import +30% YoY, -10% MoM.Overall, Taiwan semi equipment imports YoY in Aprilwas +30% globally / +12% from Japan. MoM shows a slight decline from March — globally-10% and -16% from Japan. 3-month moving average also up +13% for global, and +13%for Japan SPE. The strong capex from Taiwan foundry continues to exhibit strong YoY Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com Slight decline in Tester import.Advantest SoC tester revenue is highly correlated tothe Taiwan tester import data which was down -25% MoM, and up +30% YoY. 3-monthaverage was +16% MoM. Our regression analysis suggests +2% QoQ for Advantest Taiwansales with 1-month data, which suggests slight downside to consensus JunQ revenue of April TW litho imports reached EUR 877Mn, up 33% MoM from March and 170% YoYversus April 2025. This marks the second-highest first month of a quarter on record. Thefirst month of the quarter is typically seasonally weaker. Our regression based on 1-monthimports indicates TW quarterly system sales for ASML of EUR 2.28Bn, rising 58% QoQ and16% YoY. This implies that Taiwan will account for 36% of the overall system sales, which Weak April for TEL.The Taiwan import data for the relevant categories to TEL (CVD, dryetching, cleaning, coater & developer, RTP, etc.) suggests a weak April for TEL’s Taiwanrevenue. April single-month was down -32% MoM, and -2% YoY; 3-month moving averagewas +8% sequentially. Our regression suggests -22% QoQ for TEL’s MarQ Taiwan revenue Cleaning equipment declines.Taiwan cleaner import data is -38% MoM and -36% YoY.3-month moving average is +25% sequentially. Our regression suggests Screen’s Taiwansales composition could be ~14% of total, with a downside vs. Q3 Taiwan % of 22%. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rateAdvantest(PT=¥39,200),Tokyo Electron(PT=¥59,200), andASML(PT=€1,700.00) Outperform. We rateScreen(PT=¥21,600) Market-Perform. DETAILS •Taiwan semi equipment import in April 2026 declined MoM from an exceptionally strong March but still continued strength,with YoY growth of +30% globally / +12% YoY from Japan; MoM was -10% globally and -16% from Japan (Exhibit 1, Exhibit •3-month moving average MoM was up +13% globally and +13% from Japan. ADVANTEST — TAIWAN TESTER IMPORT DATA ASML — TAIWAN IMPORT DATA •April TW litho imports reached EUR 877Mn, up 33% MoM from March and 170% YoY versus April 2025. This marksthe second-highest first month of a quarter on record. The first month of the quarter is typically seasonally weaker. As •Taiwan's 1M lithography import data shows a good correlation with ASML’s Taiwan system sales, with an R² of 50%. Ourregression based on 1-month imports indicates Taiwan quarterly system sales for ASML of EUR 2.28Bn, rising 58%sequentially and 16% YoY. This implies that Taiwan will account for 36% of the overall system sales, which are expected toreach approximately EUR 6.3Bn in Q2 —up from 1% last quarter and from13% in Q2 2025. Taiwan lithography demand EXHIBIT 7:Monthly Taiwan litho Imports and ASML's Taiwan system sales divided by 3 have historically shown aquite solid correlation.April TW litho imports reached EUR 877Mn, up 33% MoM from March and 170% YoY versus EXHIBIT 9:The predicted system sales from Taiwan, atEUR 2.28Bn, represent a 58% QoQ increase and and up16% on an annual basis. This implies that Taiwan willaccount for 36% of the overall system sales, which are EXHIBIT 8:Taiwan’s 1M litho import data shows a modestcorrelation with ASML’s system sales in Taiwan, with anR² of 50%. Based on EUR 877Mn in TW litho imports forApril, our regression estimates ASML’s Taiwan system TOKYO ELECTRON — TAIWAN IMPORT DATA •TEL makes many equipments (CVD, dry etching, cleaning, coater & developer, RTP, etc.) and we try to group all the categoriestogether. The Taiwan import data for the relevant categories has relatively high correlation with TEL’s Taiwan revenue. But it’s EXHIBIT 14:TEL Taiwan sales show decent correlationwith Taiwan import data. SCREEN — TAIWAN IMPORT DATA The Taiwan cleaner import data has relatively high correlation with Screen’s Taiwan revenue. But it’s not perfect as MoFdoesn’t report cleaner import by country. Instead, there is only global import data, and the correlation is weaker (Exhibit 16). The cleaner import data showed another decline. April import was -38% MoM, and YoY was -36%. 3-month moving average Source: Company disclosures, Customs Administration of Taiwan, Bernsteinestimates and