全球半导体资本设备：中国晶圆制造设备进口追踪（2026年4月）：年初至今同比下降13%，受供应限制光刻设备进口疲软

China WFE Import Tracker (Apr 2026): YTD YoY -13% with weakerlithography import due to supply constrain We track monthly Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) imports to China through data fromChina Customs (link); this call provides an update to the April 2026 data (excel) and ouranalysis. April import was $2.7 billion, -12% MoM and -3% YoY. YTD YoY -13%, still weakerthan expected mainly due to Lithography YTD YoY -27% because of supply constrain.Weaker YTD import does not indicate that China WFE is slowing down as it’s justLitho supply constrain, other equipment continue to show growth. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Apr single month total WFE imports at USD 2.7bn, lower than last year averageof $3.2bn. AprYTD at USD 10bn, YoY -13%. Lithography hit a record low import withonly $142 million, YoY -60%, only accounting for 5% of total import but could be justmonthly fluctuations. YTD’s weak import was mostly dragged by Lithography, ProcessControl & Others. By region, import from Singapore/Malaysia showed strong growth, YoY+34%/17%. Litho import was extremely low at USD 142mn, YoY – 60%. YTD Litho importwas USD 1.85bn, YoY-27%. Import from Singapore + US + Malaysia was USD 1.4bn, YoY+28%, while YTD import was USD 4.3bn, YoY+6%. YTD Shanghai & Beijing import wereUSD 3.0/2.6bn, as the largest importers, accounting for 30%/26% share. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com April Litho imports of EUR 87Mn from the Netherlands were down 87% MoMand 65% YoY, marking it the lowest month since July 2022.Our regression modelestimates that China sales will decline sharply to EUR 0.44Bn in Q1, down 64% QoQ and71% YoY, reflecting weak imports in April. This implies that China will represent only 7%of total system sales in Q2. Monthly import data can be lumpy. During Q1 results, ASMLreiterated that China revenue is expected to decline to 20% of total revenue in FY26,compared to 33% in FY25. While we believe China demand will remain resilient, supportedby strong investment in capacity expansion, but this year the China sales indeed couldbe lower due to supply constrain. We now forecast China revenue to decline in line withguidance, with potential upside to guidance if ASML’s capacity of DUV supply improves. Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Carmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com For LRCX, the April data (1-month correlation) suggests Jun-Q China revenueswould decrease ~28% QoQ, with China exposure landing at ~22% of total revenuesbased on consensus revenue estimates.This appears at least directionally consistentwith management commentary that China exposure will decline sequentially in the Junequarter. AMAT’s April quarter results on China revenue is in-line with our regression.AMAThas already reported their April quarter results, hence the April data (3-month correlation)carries no predictive power, rather we will use it as a check/verification. To that end, thecorrelation suggested China revenues would be flattish in the quarter, and land at ~26.5%revenue exposure, with AMAT’s actual results where China revenues were flattish QoQ andwere at ~26.4% revenue exposure, in-line with our regression. Continued on next page For KLAC, the April data (1-month correlation) suggests Jun-Q China revenueswould increase ~17% QoQ, with China exposure landing at ~27% of total revenuesbased on consensus revenue estimates.Management didn’t provide guidance for theirChina revenue exposure this quarter, but mentioned that overall China WFE will grow at aslower rate than broader WFE this year. For TEL, our regression suggests TEL’s China revenue could be +3% YoY and +14%QoQ.Our 1-month regression implies slight upside to TEL’s JunQ revenue, tracking aheadof consensus of -4% QoQ, and an implied China contribution up to 32% vs. 27% in Q4. For Kokusai, our regression suggests their China revenue could be +48% YoY and+101% QoQ.Our 1-month regression implies slight upside to consensus of +10% QoQ,and an implied China contribution of 51% vs. 28% in Q4. For Screen, our regression suggests their China revenue could be -50% YoY and-73% QoQ.Our 1-month regression implies downside to consensus of -1% QoQ, and animplied China contribution of 12% vs. 46% in Q4. For Advantest, Our regression suggests their China revenue is could be +35% YoYand -7% QoQ.Our 1-month regression implies slight downside to consensus of +5%QoQ, and an implied China contribution of 15% vs. 17% in Q4. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS NAURA (Outperform, CNY 680.00): As the domestic WFE leader, NAURA has the broadest product portfolio coveringDeposition (PVD, CVD), Dry Etch (ICP), Thermo P