全球半导体资本设备 全球半导体设备追踪（2026年4月）：日本半导体制造设备同比增长25%

Global Semicap Tracker (Apr 26): Japan SPE +25% YoY This tracker analyzes the billings data released by SEAJ whose members are Japanesesuppliers & represent ~25% of the global wafer fab equipment (WFE) market. SEAJ releasedApril data on 2nd June (dataset can be downloaded atSEAJ+SEMI Model). David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Japan SPE saw YoY growth in April with Japan SPE billing of +13% in USD(+25% inJPY). 3M average billing was relatively stable at +6% MoM / +11% YoY in USD (+6% MoM /+14% YoY in JPY). Sequentially, April single month data was -38% MoM in JPY due to high Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com By equipment type, Japan front end equipment revenue (relevant to TEL) was +12% YoY inApril. Assembly equipment revenue (relevant to DISCO) was +73% YoY due to easy comp.Testing equipment (relevant to Advantest) showed growth of +26% YoY. On a sequential Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com For TEL, SEAJ data suggests downside to FQ1.Our regression suggests TEL's FQ1revenue could be -18% QoQ, below the consensus of +6% QoQ. Note that SEAJ data hasgood R2(0.83) even with 1 month of data. We expect TEL revenue to grow strongly in thisyear driven by strong DRAM and advanced logic capex. Also for this quarter, we expect thenext two months to improve and see strong growth as the first month of each quarter is Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com For Advantest, SEAJ data suggests upside to FQ1.Regression suggests Advantest’srevenue could be +13% QoQ, above the consensus of +3% QoQ. Note that SEAJ data hasvery high R2(0.95) even with 1 month of data. Although April single-month was negativeMoM, this was from a very strong March and still was the 2nd highest single-month billings. We forecast global WFE to be +21.4% YoY in CY2026, and +18.2% in CY2027(WFEModel,Report Link).We expect CY2026 will see strong growth from DRAM and NANDspending. We believe the Japanese equipment companies will benefit from the rise of Wemaintain our Outperform on Disco, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Kokusai andLasertecwithin Japan semi. Within our US coverage wemaintain our Outperform onLRCX, AMAT and KLAC. For Chinese semicap, wemaintain our Outperform on NAURA, BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Tokyo Electron: Outperform, PT=¥59,200.TEL is the #4 SPE supplier globally and the biggest Japanese SPE supplier withmajor presence in 6 product segments. It is expected to gain share and expand margins with competitive pricing after yen DISCO: Outperform, PT=¥85,000.DISCO is the dominant supplier of grinders and dicers with ~85% market share. Thegrowing usage of dicers/grinders driven by advanced packaging is sustainable, especially for HBM and CoWoS in the near term,and hybrid bonding for HBM/3D stacking NAND/backside power delivery network in the midterm. Kokusai: Outperform, PT=¥8,240.00.Batch ALD should see more adoption in advanced nodes especially GAA (gate-all-around). The biggest use of batch ALD is in NAND, and NAND capex recovery is accelerating. Lasertec: Outperform, PT=¥50,000. As major supplier for mask inspection (~50% share) and sole supplier for actinicinspection, Lasertec delivered phenomenal growth in the past, but saw deceleration in recent years. We expect reaccelerationfrom TAM expansion driven by the new A200HiT tool penetrating more actinic inspection at wafer fabs. Advantest: Outperform, PT=¥39,200.Benefits from rising testing intensity for HBM and Blackwell. As the dominant supplierfor HBM tester (~65%) and Nvidia AI GPU (100% share), Advantest is able to lift the ASP and margin with product migration, Screen: Market-Perform, PT=¥12,600.Leading supplier in cleaning equipment with the lowest valuation in our coverage, butalso the one with the least specific growth drivers. Cleaning intensity is not increasing, and the market is competitive with bothglobal rivals (TEL, Lam) and Chinese (ACMR, Naura). Declining China revenue contribution presents margin downside risk. AMAT (Outperform, $525.00):We maintain a positive view on secular WFE growth and see a number of drivers for AMATincluding SAM growth, an increasing services narrative, and capital return. LRCX (Outperform, $340.00):The company is benefiting from key inflections (GAA, packaging, HBM, NAND upgrades) andCY26 commentary seems supportive. KLAC (Outperform, $1,975.00):Amid positive WFE trends KLAC posseses structural growth drivers, a strong and durablecompetitive position, lower China replacement risk, and disciplined capital allocation, warranting premium valuation. NAURA (Outperform, CNY 680.00): As the domestic WFE leader, NAURA has the broadest product portfolio coveringDeposition (PVD, CVD), Dry Etch (ICP), Thermo Processes, and Cleaning, as well as a more diverse client