全球半导体资本设备中国WFE进口追踪器（2026年5月）

China WFE Import Tracker (May 2026): YTD YoY -12%, weaknesscontinues but expect 2H to recover We track monthly Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) imports to China through data fromChina Customs (link); this call provides an update to the May 2026 data (excel) and ouranalysis. May import was $2.2 billion, -20% MoM and -9% YoY. YTD YoY -12%, still weakerthan expected mainly due to Lithography YTD YoY -24%.We expect 2H import to recover Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com May single month total WFE imports at USD 2.2bn, lower than last year average of$3.2bn. MayYTD at USD 12bn, YoY -12%. Litho import was USD 297mn, YoY – 2%,recovered from last month’s historical low point. Although recovered MoM, Lithographyimport remained at lower end in history. YTD’s weak import was mostly dragged byLithography due to supply shortage, YTD Litho import was USD 2.14bn, YoY-24%. Byregion, import from Singapore/Korea showed strong growth, YoY+38%/12%. May importfrom Singapore + US + Malaysia was USD 1.1bn, YoY-3%, while YTD import was USD David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Kai Zhang+852 2123 2665kai.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com May Litho imports of EUR 236Mn were up 171% MoM and 2% YoY.Our regressionmodel estimates that China sales will decline sharply to EUR 0.57bn in Q2, down 52%QoQ and 33% YoY, reflecting weak imports in April and May. This implies that China willrepresent only 9% of total system sales in Q2. Monthly import data can be lumpy. During Q1results, ASML reiterated that China revenue is expected to decline to 20% of total revenuein FY26, compared to 33% in FY25. While we believe China demand will remain resilient, Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Carmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com For LRCX, the May data (2-month correlation) suggests Jun-Q China revenues woulddecrease ~25% QoQ, with China exposure landing at ~23% of total revenues basedon consensus revenue estimates.This appears at least directionally consistent with Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com For AMAT, the May data (1-month correlation) suggests Jul-Q China revenues wouldincrease ~28% QoQ, with China exposure landing at ~30% of total revenues basedon consensus revenue estimates.We note that management did not give guidance forChina revenues in the July quarter, but suggested that their China business would be flattish Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com Continued on next page For KLAC, the May data (2-month correlation) suggests Jun-Q China revenues wouldincrease ~22% QoQ, with China exposure landing at ~28% of total revenues basedon consensus revenue estimates.Management didn’t provide guidance for their China For TEL, our regression suggests TEL’s China revenue could be -5% YoY and +5%QoQ.Our 2-month regression implies slight upside to TEL’s JunQ revenue, trackingahead of consensus of +3% QoQ, and an implied China mix of 28% based on consensus For Kokusai, our regression suggests their China revenue could be +40% YoY and+69% QoQ.Our 2-month regression implies upside to consensus of +18% QoQ, and animplied China contribution of ~40%. For Screen, our regression suggests their China revenue could be -32% YoY and-64% QoQ.Our 2-month regression implies downside to consensus of -15% QoQ, and animplied China contribution of ~20%. For Advantest, Our regression suggests their China revenue is could be +25% YoYand -14% QoQ.Our 2-month regression implies downside to consensus of +3% QoQ, andan implied China contribution of 14%. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS NAURA (Outperform, CNY 680.00): As the domestic WFE leader, NAURA has the broadest product portfolio coveringDeposition (PVD, CVD), Dry Etch (ICP), Thermo Processes, and Cleaning, as well as a more diverse client base covering leadinglogic, DRAM, NAND players, benefiting from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain. AMEC (Outperform, CNY 500.00): Primarily focused on Dry Etch (CCP, ICP) with rapid expansion in Deposition (ALD, LPCVD,EPI), commonly perceived as the domestic WFE company with the best technology and widest global recognition, continue to Piotech (Outperform, CNY 580.00): Rising domestic WFE vendor primarily focused on Deposition (PECVD, HDPCVD, SACVD,ALD) with expansion in W2W and C2W hybrid bonding equipment for advanced packaging. Piotech has a strong track record ofproduct innovation, which should allow it to benefit from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain. Tokyo Electron (Outperform, ¥59,200):TEL is the #4 SPE supplier globally and the biggest Japanese SPE supplier withmajor presence in 6 product segments. It is expected to gain share and expand margins with competitive pricing after yen Kokusai (Outp