中国晶圆制造设备（WFE）进口追踪（2025年11月）：年初至今同比增长6%

ChinaWFEImportTracker(Nov2025):YTD YoY+6% We track monthly Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) inports to China through data tromChina Customs (link]; this call provides an updste to the Nov 2025 data (excel) and ouranalysis. Nov 2025 WFE imports to China landed at USD 2.44bn, MoM -24%, YoY-9%; Nov YTD YoY +6%, If Dec imports landecl at $3.3bn (monthly everege) we will werpup 2025E WFE imports with flattish YoY. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+862 2123 2854qing/uan.ingtemnsteinss.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacyrasgenbemsteinsg.com Nov's imports were USD 2.44bn, slightly lower than YTD monthly average at 3.22bn.Lithography Nov MoM -32%, YoY -15%; YTD YoY -10%. Deposition Nav MoM -32%, YoY+6%; YTD YoY +13%. Dry Etch Nov MoM -46%, YoY -30%; YTD YoY +47%; Proces5Control Nov MoM +24%s, YoY -2%; YTD YoY +10%s. YTD U5 + Malaysia + Singaporeimport share 3'7%s, last year 33%, taking share from Japsn and Netherlands. Shanghai andGuangcong YTD represent 58% of total imports. We believe these numbers just reflectnormal monthly fiuctustions. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 57C4dssiddsiybemslnirx(.crm Zreng Cul+802 2-28 2054unhuauagrafuaz ASML's regression model estimetes Chine's Q4 sales at EUR 2.44 bn, up 5% OoQand 27% YoY. This implies China willrepresent 33% of Q4 total system sales and 32% of2025 tatal system sales, significantly abave the previous guidance af slightly abcve 25%China's litho imports declined 24% MaM in November to EUR 535 Mn, following very highimports in Oclober, and were dcwn 1B%: YoY. However, combined imports for O:t and Novreached EUR 1.37 Bn, up 14% QoQ comparec to the first two months of Q3 and 31% YoY.Although ASML indicated during Q3 results that Chins reverue would decline meaningtulynext yeer as demand nomalizes, current trendls suggest stronger-than-expected demsnd,for 2026. Francis Ma+862 2123 2626Iarcismssebufrsteinsacom Alric Shtaw+1 917 344 8454alick.shawgternste nsg.cor Arped von Nemes+1 917 844 8461spaane=e:@bergisinsgocm BJEAH crY+862 2123 2632juhwangxt:ernateinsg.cam For LRCX, the Nov data (2-month correlation) suggests Dec-Q China revenueswould decrease ~32% QoQ, with China exposure landing at ~30% of total revenuesbased on consensus revenue estimates, This appears directionally consisten withmanagement ccmmentary that China revenues will decline in Decernber, though they didnot specify the magnitude. We do note, however, that the company expects CY2C26 Chinsrevenue exposure to land below 30*%s. Carmine Miano1581 8260 ++carmins.milanogbernsteinsg.com For AMAT, the Nov data (1-month correlation) suggests Jan-Q China revenues woulddecrease ~10% QoQ, with China exposure landing at ~26% of total revenues basedon consensus revenue estimates. Managcmcnt's commcntary indicetcd that Chinathoug/1 we nole that this is only a 1-manth correlatiorn at this point. Cortinved on aexf page For TEL, our regression suggests TEL's China revenue Is llkely to be -25% YoY and-17% QoQ, Our regression implies downside to TEL's DecQ revenue, tracking lbehindconsensus of -4% QoO, and China contribution down to 36% vs, 40% in Q2 For Kokusai, our regression suggests their China revenue is likely to be down, -13%YoY and -29% QoQ. Kokusai guided 2H 26/3 China revenue to be 313i of total. Ourregression itnplies slght upsice to guidance, which indicasles China contribution of 42% vs48% in 02. -39% QoQ. Our regression implies clownside to DecQ, indicating 20% Chine contrilbutionvs, 49% guiclance for 2H China. contribution. Screen's DecQ China importis trecking behinconsensus of 23%; QoQ, For Advantest, Our regression suggests their China revenue is likely to be -23%YoY and -24% QoQ., Our regression implies a downside to De:Q, as it is incicating Chinacontribution of 19% vs. 2O% in Q2. Although snaller in China contribution, Advantest'sDecQ China import is tracking slightly behind consensus of -22% QoQ. BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS NAURA (Outperform, CNY 600.00): As the domestic WFE leader, NAURA has the broedest product portfollo coveringDeposition (PvD, CVD), Dry Etch (ICP), Thermo Processes, and Cleaning, 8s well as more cliverse client base covering leadingIcgic, DRAM, NAND players, benefiting from the WFE domestic substitution in Chine with eaccelere.tion share gain. AMEC (Outperform, CNY 380.00): Primarily focused on Dry Etch (CCP, ICP) witih repid expansion in Depcsition (ALD, LPCVD,EPl), commorly Ferceived as the domestic. WFE company with the best tchnalagy and widest global recognition, continue tobenefit frorn the WFE damestic substituftion in China vith acceleratian share gain. Piotech [Outperform, CNY 375.00): Rising dornestic WFE vendor primarily focused pn Deppsition (PECVD, HDPCVD, SACVD,ALD) with expansion in w2W and C2W hybrid boriding equiprnent for advanced packaging. Fiolech has a strong track reccrd ofproduct innovat cn, which should sllow it to benefit from the wFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain Tokyo Electron (Outperform, ¥39,40