2026年晶圆制造设备支出（WFE）的上行 下行风险

Restricted - External European Technology HardwareNEUTRALUnchangedEuropean Technology HardwareSimon Coles, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 4519simon.coles@barclays.comBarclays, UKRohan Bahl+44 (0)20 7116 9488rohan.bahl@barclays.comBarclays, UKU.S. Semiconductors & SemiconductorCapital EquipmentTom O'Malley+1 212 526 0692thomas.omalley@barclays.comBCI, US WFE flattish, but mix isshifting.Elsewhere we are cautious on lagging edge spending. OutsideChina we expect it to decline given utilisation rates remaining low across companies, and onlysome companies have started to see upticks. We expect China WFE to be flat, but potentialchanges to restrictions mean the SAM for Western semicap likely declines, with an updatepotentially sometime in June. We expect continued depressed demand for NAND to keep WFEspend limited to tech migrations only.Stock implications.Big picture, we see upside risk in leading edge logic and a mixed outlookfor DRAM, leaving us with a broadly flattish outlook overall but downside risk in 2026 (driven byIntel/Samsung and DRAM). Whilst we expect semicap to be directly immune, the Section 232outcome/update remains an overhang for the sector. We would prefer exposure to leading edgelogic, hence we upgraded ASM to OW (see ASM Int'l NV: Outpacing the rest - upgrade to OW, 3June 2025). Even if 2027 proves to be a stronger growth year, nearer term we see limited growthfor ASML in 2026, hence we downgraded to EW (see ASML Holding NV: Stepping aside for now -downgrade to EW, 3 June 2025). That said, we stick to our view that ASML can hit the 2030midpoint of its guidance. We increase our TSMC USD estimates to account for allayed slowdownfears, though our TWD estimates are impacted by latest FX. We increase our PT to $240 from$215, and TSMC remains a core OW in our coverage universe.2 FIGURE 1. Our bottom-up analysis of new fabs shows strongupcoming capacity for leading edge nodes...FIGURE 2. ...with TSMC starting construction on 8 front-end fabs in2025012345678910Total capacity from new leading-edge fabs (k, wafer starts per month)Number of TSMC fabs starting constructionSource: TSMC, Barclays Research estimatesFIGURE 3. We continue to expect a big 2nm capacity ramp...FIGURE 4. ...and so far TSMC's 2nm yields are tracking well202820292030SamsungOther-3Q2nm capacity forecasts - new (k, wafers per month)TSMC defect density by nodeSource: TSMC, Barclays ResearchThe Story in Charts Source: Barclays Research estimates050100150200250300350400202520262027TSMCIntelSource: Barclays Research estimates3 June 2025 1.4nm capacity forecasts (k, wafers per month)Source: Barclays Research estimatesFIGURE 7. Our WFE forecasts see 2026 down 2% y/y...020406080100120201620172018201920202021Leading edge logicTrailing edge logicChinaBarclays WFE forecasts ($bn)Source: Barclays Research estimates, Gartner, Bloomberg3 June 2025 Dissecting leading-edge WFETSMC continues to dominate and lead the leading edge logic foundry market, whilststruggles at Samsung and Intel continue. We see leading edge logic as likely to be themajor driver of WFE spending in 2026 and 2027. The success of TSMC's 2nm ramp istherefore key, and so far it is tracking ahead of expectations. We expect meaningfulcapacity expansion this year, and more in 2026. 1.4nm is on the horizon, with high-volumemanufacturing in 2028 but initial ramp late-2027.Drivers of WFELogic applications have made up the majority of global semiconductor capex since 2020, andmade up as much as c70% in 2023 during a period when memory suppliers were curtailingcapacity during a down cycle. Looking at the split of wafer fab equipment (WFE), nodes 7nm 5 FIGURE 9. Global semi capex split by application ($bn)FIGURE 10. Global WFE split by linewidth ($bn)0204060801001202019202020212022202320247nm and below10-22nm32-65nm90nm and aboveSource: Gartner, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 11. Leading edge WFE capex estimates ($bn)FIGURE 12. Typical fab capex splits (%)20182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E2026E2027ESamsung0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%TaiwanUSEuropeChinaEquipmentConstructionHookupLandIncluding government subsidies. For a 28nm fab.Source: Barclays Research estimates, company dataSource: McKinsey, Barclays Researchand below, or leading-edge logic, seem to have represented only between 20-25% of total WFEover the past few years, or c40% of logic WFE.We estimate that leading edge logic could actually represent between 30-40% of WFE (thoughthere could bedifferencesin definition). For instance, TSMC has guided for c$40bn of capex in2025, of which c70%, or $28bn, is for leading edge. Typically, around 70% of capex on fabs is forequipment, though we note that in 2025 TSMC is constructing a significant number of fabs,which suggests that a smaller portion of capex could be for WFE. We estimate the WFE portioncomes to c$18bn, or c18% of total WFE. Intel has stated that it plans to spend around $18bn ofcapex in 2025. At its 2025 foundry day, Intel suggested $37bn of the $90bn capex it spentbetween 2021 a