中国半导体资本设备：因代工需求增强上调2025年中国晶圆制造设备支出展望

China WFE demand sustainability remain a key controversy for the global semicap sector.In our last update in Feb 25, we revised up 2025 China WFE by 2% (though YoY still -20%)to USD 36bn. Since then, we continue to see stronger logic demand, supported by resilientimport data YTD and better guidance from both local and global vendors. We updated ourChina WFE projection in this note, revised up WFE outlook to USD 39 bn (-13% YoY) for2025 (was 36bn, -20% YoY) and 41 bn (5% YoY) for 2026 (was 36bn, flat YoY), the latestChina WFE Industry Model can be downloaded here.DeepSeek accelerated the capacity expansion for advanced logic in China.Wehighlighted in our previous call that DeepSeek and local AI chip development forge China’sAI ecosystem into a closed loop, accelerating the capacity expansion plan for advancedlogic in China. Local AI chip production in China has strong commercial rationale despitelower yields at domestic foundries compared to TSMC or Samsung. Export controls haveleft Chinese AI chip vendors with no access to advanced overseas manufacturing, makinglocal production the only option. Additionally, wafer fabrication costs are a small fraction ofan AI chip’s selling price, so even with double or triple local manufacturing costs, the impacton commercial viability is minimal. This has already spurred accelerated investment andcapacity expansion in advanced logic at local foundries post-DeepSeek.Despite concerns around global overcapacity in mature logic, we believe China willnot slow down capacity expansion.Our latest analysis shows that, in 2024, Chinesefoundries held just 21% of global mature logic revenue, still short of the ~30% targetin our estimation. Chinese fabless firms already have a 28% global share, growing by 2percentage points annually, and currently only allocate 54% of their production to domesticfoundries. Growing China TAM and increasing need for self-sufficiency are driving ongoingcapacity expansion. Hua Hong, for example, runs at 103% utilization with only a 9% grossmargin in 1Q25, showing that lower prices help fill new capacity quickly. As a result, foundrypricing is under pressure, but we believe protecting the margin is a much lower priority forChinese foundries compared to the goal of self-sufficiency.WFE imports YTD was resilient, guidance from global vendors revised up sincelast earnings.Although global leading WFE companies are still guiding down their Chinarevenue proportion for CY25, but is better than the guidance from last quarter (Exhibit 4).April YTD import data only dropped -2% YoY (Exhibit 7), supporting the better outlook. Thebiggest import region is Guangdong, which may reflect better than expected ramp up ofsome emerging advanced logic customers. After revisions, we still model global suppliers’China revenue to drop by -23% in 2025 to be in-line with global incumbents’ guidance, wesaw that there could upside risk to our number if import data continues to be strong. Fordomestic vendors, given their revenues in 2025 will be in-line with 2024 orders, we stillmodel 37% YoY growth in 2025.We rate NAURA, AMEC, and Piotech Outperformas they are clear leaders in Depositionand Dry Etch, benefiting the most from WFE domestic substitution.www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRating688012.CH (AMEC)O002371.CH (NAURA)O688072.CH (Piotech)OAMATOLRCXO8035.JP (Tokyo Electron)O7735.JP (Screen)M6525.JP (Kokusai)O6920.JP (Lasertec)UASIAXSPXJPLO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedAMAT, LRCX estimate is Adjusted EPS; AMAT, LRCX valuation is Adjusted P/E (x);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSAMEC (Outperform, CNY 300.00):Primarily focus on Dry Etch (CCP, ICP) with rapid expansion in Deposition (ALD, LPCVD,EPI), commonly perceived as the domestic WFE company with the best technology and widest global recognition, continue tobenefit from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain.NAURA (Outperform, CNY 550.00):As the domestic WFE leader, NAURA has the broadest product portfolio coveringDeposition (PVD, CVD), Dry Etch (ICP), Thermo Processes, and Cleaning, as well as a more diverse client base covering leadinglogic, DRAM, NAND players, benefiting from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain.Piotech (Outperform, CNY 280.00):Rising domestic WFE vendor primarily focus on Deposition (PECVD, HDPCVD, SACVD,ALD) with expansion in W2W and C2W hybrid bonding equipment for advanced packaging. Piotech has a strong track record ofproduct innovation, which will allow it to benefit from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain.AMAT (Outperform, $210.00):We maintain a positive view on secular WFE growth and see a number of drivers for AMATincluding SAM growth, an increasing services narrative, and capital return.LRCX (Outperform, $95.00):The company has come off the trough, CY25 commentary (along with valuation)