半导体资本设备：Q4前瞻：晶圆制造设备超级周期开启，上调目标价

Q4 Semicap preview: beginning of a WFE Price Objective Change 12 January 2026 Expect beats/raises as WFE could be next AI constraint EquityUnited States We expect broad-based CQ4 beats/CQ1 raises across our semicap coverage to start offa potentially robust CY26 for WFE vendors as a multi-year upcycle gets underway. Wethink upside could be partly driven by China after the“50% affiliate”rule was suspendedfor LRCX (initially said $200mn headwind in DecQ and $600mn in CY26) and KLAC($300-$350mn for CY26). However, we also think strength across leading-edge F/L,HBM, and NAND upgrades are drivers too in 1H for the whole space (KLAC upticked1H26 HoH growth from“flat to modestly up”to“LSD to MSD %”). Clean room Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1755 Duksan JangResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 556 4825 Historical intensity supports upside to our WFE estimates Michael ManiResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 2232 Weexpect LRCX and KLAC to issue an initial CY26 WFE guide of at least MSD YoYgrowth (though off a lower base) but suspect this will be walked up through the year tosupport our +10% YoY (to $131bn) in CY26. We maintain our view for $150bn (+13%YoY) for CY27. Consensus for top 5 WFE vendors (exhibit 12) implies only 8%/13%growth in CY26/27 (9%/13% ex-ASML) suggesting upside to estimates given a trackrecord of consistently outgrowing industry. Historical capital intensity also points toupside to our WFE estimates (exhibit 12). Using reasonable assumptions for AI and non-AI WFE and using our $1tn/$1.1tn semi sales forecast in CY26/27, we think there could Liam PharrResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3146 See pages 16-17 for Glossary ofterms Leading-edge F/L, DRAM, process control lead the way This upcycle willlikely be a rising tide for all and expect strength in leading-edge F/LWFE as limited TSMC sub-5nm capacity becomes intensely competitive (KLAC, LRCX,NVMI, AEIS best exposed), leading-edge DRAM/HBM on tight capacity and followingpositive checks with MU at CES (AMAT, CAMT, TER), and ongoing NAND upgrades(LRCX, MKSI). Trailing-edge (ACLS) still looks weak. We think process control (KLAC,NVMI, CAMT) is set to outperform given: 1) broadening leading-edge customer base, 2) Raisesemicap and MU POs; BlueField-4 +ve for memory We raise POs across our semicap coverage given a stronger multi-year demand outlook,increasing visibility, greater customer diversification (especially in F/L) and potential forhigher FCF generation in the upturn (exhibit 2). We also raise estimates and our PO forMU given a robust pricing environment (see page 4). Separately, we note NVDA’sBlueFIeld-4-powered inference context memory storage platform could be materially BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect theobjectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Contents Summary of PO changesMU PO Raise to $400Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) ForecastAI 2.0: Fast industry growth, efficient investments Summary of PO changes Exhibit2:We raisePOs for most of our semicap coverage and MU given strengthening demand, higher visibility, and potential for higher through-cycle MU PO Raise to $400 We raise MU PO to $400 from $300 on continued increase in DRAM spot price and stilldisciplined Samsung capex spend in CY26. While SK Hynix and Micron have planned forsubstantial capex hikes this year, we flag industry clean room space remains limited,with material equipment installation and volume production still likely 2-3 years away.Our $400 PO is based on 3.0x CY27E P/B, or at the high-end of historical 0.8x-3.1x range Source:BofA Global Research estimates MU Multiple/Valuation MU is currently trading at 2.7x cons. P/B vs. historical 1.5x median (2yr fwd multiple). DRAM/NAND Pricing Trends The last few weeks, spot/contract pricing for both DRAM and NAND have beenexceptionally strong. While we view the near-term pricing trends as potentially abnormaland aggressive, we expect the current strong price outlook to generally continue into DRAM Spot/Contract ASP Trends NAND Spot/Contract ASP Trends Source:BofA Global Research estimates BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Based on the latest pricing trends/outlook and MU’s increased long-term sales/contractvisibility, we raise our MU sales/EPS ests ahead. Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) Forecast We maintain our WFE estimates for CY26-28E of $131bn (+9.7% YoY), $150bn (+14.3%YoY), and $155.2bn (+3.4% YoY). Our estimates imply a 9% CAGR for WFE CY25-28E. We expect notable strength inmemory, up +18% YoY in CY26E and growing 9.4% CAGR CY25-28E, where our DRAMWFE view is $36bn (+20% YoY)/$39.1bn (+7.5% YoY) in CY26/27E following recent MUcomments on capex hikes and expectations of capacity expansions for HBM and leading-edge DDR5. Our Foundry estimates are $68.1bn (+10% YoY) and $81.7bn (+20%