半导体资本设备：Q4前瞻：晶圆制造设备超级周期开启，上调目标价

Q4 Semicap preview: beginning of a WFEsupercycle, raising POs Price Objective Change 12 January 2026 Expect beats/raises as WFE could be next AI constraint EquityUnited StatesSemiconductors We expect broad-based CQ4 beats/CQ1 raises across our semicap coverage to start offa potentially robust CY26 for WFE vendors as a multi-year upcycle gets underway. Wethink upside could be partly driven by China after the“50% affiliate”rule was suspendedfor LRCX (initially said $200mn headwind in DecQ and $600mn in CY26) and KLAC($300-$350mn for CY26). However, we also think strength across leading-edge F/L,HBM, and NAND upgrades are drivers too in 1H for the whole space (KLAC upticked1H26 HoH growth from“flat to modestly up”to“LSD to MSD %”). Clean roomconstraints mean that WFE is 2H26 weighted (exhibit 27 suggests +15% HoH growth).Visibility is extending 1-2 years ahead and elongating lead times could be a bullish signthat semicaps are becoming a constraint (like memory and optics) in the AI supply chain. Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1755vivek.arya@bofa.com Duksan JangResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 556 4825duksan.jang@bofa.com Historical intensity supports upside to our WFE estimates Michael ManiResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 2232michael.mani@bofa.com Weexpect LRCX and KLAC to issue an initial CY26 WFE guide of at least MSD YoYgrowth (though off a lower base) but suspect this will be walked up through the year tosupport our +10% YoY (to $131bn) in CY26. We maintain our view for $150bn (+13%YoY) for CY27. Consensus for top 5 WFE vendors (exhibit 12) implies only 8%/13%growth in CY26/27 (9%/13% ex-ASML) suggesting upside to estimates given a trackrecord of consistently outgrowing industry. Historical capital intensity also points toupside to our WFE estimates (exhibit 12). Using reasonable assumptions for AI and non-AI WFE and using our $1tn/$1.1tn semi sales forecast in CY26/27, we think there couldbe just below ~$20bn of WFE upside beyond our estimates through CY27 that mainlylands next year and suggests our CY26 WFE growth could end up near mid-to-high teensYoY. Liam PharrResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3146liam.pharr@bofa.com See pages 16-17 for Glossary ofterms Leading-edge F/L, DRAM, process control lead the way This upcycle willlikely be a rising tide for all and expect strength in leading-edge F/LWFE as limited TSMC sub-5nm capacity becomes intensely competitive (KLAC, LRCX,NVMI, AEIS best exposed), leading-edge DRAM/HBM on tight capacity and followingpositive checks with MU at CES (AMAT, CAMT, TER), and ongoing NAND upgrades(LRCX, MKSI). Trailing-edge (ACLS) still looks weak. We think process control (KLAC,NVMI, CAMT) is set to outperform given: 1) broadening leading-edge customer base, 2)INTC at CES mentioned plans to use more PC to improve yields and attract IFScustomers; and 3) secularly rising DRAM PC intensity (KLAC DRAM sales growing +40%YoY in CY25). Raisesemicap and MU POs; BlueField-4 +ve for memory We raise POs across our semicap coverage given a stronger multi-year demand outlook,increasing visibility, greater customer diversification (especially in F/L) and potential forhigher FCF generation in the upturn (exhibit 2). We also raise estimates and our PO forMU given a robust pricing environment (see page 4). Separately, we note NVDA’sBlueFIeld-4-powered inference context memory storage platform could be materiallyexpansive for memory demand in the medium-term, especially for NAND. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect theobjectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 21 to 23. Analyst Certification on page 20. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 18.12918474 Timestamp: 12 January 2026 09:16PM EST Contents Summary of PO changes3MU PO Raise to $4004Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) Forecast6AI 2.0: Fast industry growth, efficient investments9Top 5 semicap WFE sales trends15Glossary and stocks mentioned16 Summary of PO changes MU PO Raise to $400 We raise MU PO to $400 from $300 on continued increase in DRAM spot price and stilldisciplined Samsung capex spend in CY26. While SK Hynix and Micron have planned forsubstantial capex hikes this year, we flag industry clean room space remains limited,with material equipment installation and volume production still likely 2-3 years away.Our $400 PO is based on 3.0x CY27E P/B, or at the high-end of historical 0.8x-3.1x rangegiven the ongoing memory upcycle, with earnings expansion (upcycle + HBM/DC ramp). We view overall DRAM capex outside of HBM has been muted since 2023 We view overall NAND capex has been muted since 2023 MU Multiple/Valuation MU is currently trading at 2.7x cons. P/B vs. historical 1.5x median (2yr fwd multiple). DRAM/NAND Pricing TrendsThe last few we