日本半导体台湾进口追踪报告（2025年6月）：测试设备需求创新高

MOF Taiwan released Jun 2025 semiconductor equipment import data on Jul gth. Weextracted and analyzed relevant information that has strong significance to our coveragecompanies.The relevant Taiwan SPE import data can be downloaded here: Taiwan SPE ImportContinued strength in Taiwan equipment imports. Overall, Taiwan semi equipmentimport was up YoY for both globally (+80%) and from Japan (+51%). MoM shows a stronghas moderated, down -2% for global semi equipment import, and down -9% for Japan semiequipment.Testerimportcontinuesstrength,positiveforAdvantest.AdvantestSoCtesterrevenue is highly correlated to the Taiwan tester import data, which was up another32% MoM from April, and up 2.1x YoY. 3-month average data is also up 10% MoM. Ourregression analysis suggests +18% QoQfor Advantest Taiwan sales, versus the companycommentofasequentialdeclineinSoCtester.Slightly negative read across to TEL. The Taiwan import data for the relevant categoriesto TEL (CvD, dry etching, cleaning, coater & developer, RTP, etc.) suggests weakness forTEf's Taiwan revenue. Our regression suggests -22% QoQfor TEL's Jun Q Taiwan revenue,although June recovered MoM at +41% sequential growth, and YoY was also up +75%, 3-month moving average was down -12% sequentially.Cleaning equipment rebounds slightly, but still negative for Screen Q1. The Taiwancleanerimportdatashowssomerecoveryfromtrough.Up+3o%MoMfromaweakApril-May, YoY is still strong at +37%, yet 3-month moving average is down -18% sequentially.Our regression suggests -12% QoQ for Screen's Taiwan sales.www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEINTICKERTABLETickerRating6857.JP (Advantest)M8035.JP (Tokyo Electron)07735.JP (Screen)MJPLO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONSWerateTokyoElectronOutperform(PT=￥33,800)We rate Advantest (PT=￥7,060.00) and Screen (PT=￥11,300) Market-Perform.JAPAN SEMICONDUCTORS C 9e DETAILSTAIWANSEMIEQUIPMENTIMPORTOVERALL: Overall, Taiwan semi equipment import was up YoY for both globally (+80%) and from Japan (+51%) (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 2): MoM shows a rebound from weak April-May -globally up +14% and +23% from Japan.equipment.EXHIBIT 1: June Taiwan import for SPE was S4.1bn, up 14% MoM from weak May.4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5001,5001,000500Source: Customs Administration of Taiwan, Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT 2: Likewise, June Taiwan SPE import from Japan was $812mn, +23% MoM.1,2001,000800mnUSD600400200ce: Customs Administration of Taiwan, BerrJAPAN SEMICONDUCTORS 2016-2025: Taiwan monthly SPE import (Global)Global SPE2016-2025: Taiwan monthly SPE import (Japan)JapanSPEistein analysis ........ 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Global SPE)....... 3 per. Mov. Av..(Japan SPE)BERNSTEINSOCIETE CENERALE CROUP ADVANTEST-TAIWANTESTERIMPORTDATA·Advantest SoC tester revenue is highly correlated to the Taiwan tester import (Exhibit 4). June Tester import data was upfurther from May. TW import of testers from Japan and Malaysia was up +32% MoM and up +2.1x YoY. 3-month average datais also up +10% MoM (Exhibit 3).: Our regression indicates a strong JunQ Taiwan sales for Advantest of +18% QoQ (Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6), which is a positive asthe company guided for a sequential decline in SoC tester revenue.EXHIBIT 3: June tester import from Japan and Malaysia collectively was $604mn, up +32% MoM.2016-2025: Taiwan monthly tester import (Japan/Malaysia)700600500200100808aTesters (Japan/Malaysia)Source: Customs Administration of Taiwan, Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT 4: Taiwan tester imports data shows good directional correlation with Advantest's Taiwan sales.2016-2025: Advantest Taiwan Revenue vs. Taiwan Tester Imports60505402010AdvantestTaiwanRevenue (Quarterly/3)Source: Company disclosures, Customs Administration of Taiwan, Bernstein estimates and analysisJAPAN SEMICONDUCTORS 222222忆忆忆5........ 3 per.Mov. Avg. (Testers (Japan/Malaysia)10080604020Monthly Taiwan importBERNSTEINSOCIETECENERALECROUP with Taiwan import data.Advantest Quarterly Taiwan Sales vs.Taiwan import: 1QCY16-1QCY25￥180￥160< ImpliedR-squared = 0.915C2Q25￥140￥100vantest￥80Adv￥60￥40￥20￥0￥0￥50￥100￥150￥200￥250Taiwan Import (JPY bn)Source: Company disclosures, Customs Administration of Taiwan, Bernsteinestimates and analysisBERNSTEIN SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP5 TOKYO ELECTRON - TAIWAN IMPORT DATATEL makes many equipments (CVD, dry etching, cleaning, coater & developer, RTP, etc.) and we try to group all the categoriestogether. The Taiwan import data for the relevant categories has relatively high correlation with TEL's Taiwan revenue. But it'snot perfect as MoF doesn't report import by country for some categories (Exhibit 8).The import data suggests slow progress for TEL's Taiwan revenue. It has rebounded +41% MoM from weak May, and YoYwas up +75%. 3-month moving average was down -12% sequentially (Exhibit 7).: Our regression indicates a negative JunQ Taiwan sales for TEL of -22% QoQ (Exhibit 9, Exhibit 10).JAPAN S