增长软件与网络安全：2026年下半年展望反转？

Growth Software & Cyber: H2'26 outlook flips the script??? and the Three bears”-cybersecurity was HOT on the back of securing Al tailwinds,application software was NoT as Al disruption narratives abound,and consumption cloudinfrastructure appeared JUST RIGHT for a nice acceleration.But in Q1,growth investorstold us they preferred to invest where the momentum was: semis, memory, power, etc. Thisleft softwaretouching newlows around the March/early-April timeframe... +19173448390peter.weed@bernsteinsg.com +1917344 8342luwei.yang@bernsteinsg.con road with clients April through May we finally heard willingness to invest in software (dueto worries the semi/memory trade could peak). Interest was particularly focused in"safer"categories of consumption cloud infra and cyber. Thus, it didn't surprise us that both thesesoftware categories saw their valuations go vertical through earnings.While we are off earlyJune peaks,their 3-month returns are broadly 50-80%+ (Exhibit 6). +19173448463armin.hadavi@bernsteinsg.com bullish investors overthelastweekor sotoldusthey expectDatadogtoreachupper-30%sto 40%+ YoY growth (vs.32% in Q1)and next year to remain 30% +/-. We are quite bullishabout Datadog,butthatexpectation seems stretched.Webelieve most cloud consumptionrevenuecomesfromanenterpriseandSaaScustomerbase(85% inDatadog's case)thatlapsVERYTOUGHcomps inQ4.Evenmorechallenging,therearesignalsthesecustomerscloud projects are stalling (we understand due to hyperscalers capacity issues +delaysdue to cyber hardening post Mythos / Glasswing). So while we are excited by the"Born inAl" buyer tailwinds (e.g., Anthropic ~125% QoQ revenue growth), the net growth may peaklowerandregressatleastsomewhatinQ4. ...and Too HIGH in cybersecurity? While we are bullish on cybersecurity's tailwind fromAl, regulatory pressure, and Mythos, we also worry some investors expect rapid or evenhockey stick acceleration.Wethink hockeystick level acceleration is unlikelyas sellingremainshuman constrainedwith6-9month sales cyclesandreal POC/implementationefforts (i.e.,little/no self adoption orconsumptive revenue).Effectivelynet new growthisbottleneckedby hiring constraints forleaders like CRWD or PANW (an issue forboth theirown and their channel capacity).In thenearterm it can run abit hot (e.g.,exceed quotas,over-index in channelshare),butthisboost isprobablytemporaryandat mostafewextra%point YoY growth acceleration (as we added to our models). Could application softwarefinally work?!?Particularly if Al Labs go public?With results potentiallydisappointing in hotsectors,wewonder if the opposite could play outfor application software. First, if AI Labs do IPO, it could be a positive. They may join IGV /software indexes,making indiscriminate shortingdifficult.Inaddition,theIPOprocessmaynarrowly focus messaging /strategy creatingmore dovish narratives (i.e.,focusedon inference share and improving margins /pricing nottaking out currentvendors)-theshort-lived softwaretailwinds from SamAltman's comments afewweeks agobeinganexample.Secondlyweanticipatesomeeasiercomps andimprovingproductstories inthe 2nd half for the likes of ServiceNow and GitLab, and some company specific dynamics maydifficult comps, Al bear narratives alleviating,and financial modeling becoming easier). IT,PRODUCT,AND CLOUDINFRASTRUCTURECOVERAGEServiceNow (Now)-buyitNoW:Notonly is ServiceNowtheleastexpensivemid/largecapsoftwarestock (whenPtoNTM FCFminus SBC is compared vs.3-year growth CAGR-Exhibit 7),but we continueto seea favorable setupfor ServiceNowinto2H26as the companybegins tolap easier comps fromlast year, when its federal businessfaceddisruption fromDOGE-related scrutiny and government shutdown dynamics. Assuming a more normalized federal spending environment this year, wesee a potentialtailwind togrowth in Q3 and Q4,complemented by continued Al-driven demand.Adoption ofNowAssisthasto broader deployments and realizetangible ROl-this could startto add some small,but narrativebenefitting consumptionrevenue expansion (we expect in the mid $10s-of-millions in H2). We maintain our Outperform rating and $236 price target. Atlassian (TEAM)-buyit afterFQ4 (thisquarter):WhileAtlassian is likelytoface a revenuegrowth headwindenteringtheupcoming fiscal year due to Data Centeraccounting dynamics,webelieve visibility into the trough should improve as wemove through the second half of this calendar year, with the toughest YoY growth comparisons set to bottom in CY27Q1.Atthe sametime,threedominant bear narratives have started to moderate-1)worries about seat compression seemtobeless andlessbelievablebasedonhiringplansandproductteamnarratives,2)worriesaboutDlYorcompetitivereplacementarecomingupless asa true concern with investors,who have cometoappreciate howhard it istohaveanROlpositive casegiven the inexpensive pricingfor Atlassian and operational challenge to replace it,and 3) worries aboutwhat will be the nextrevenue streamseemtobe addressed bytheirnewtooling tohelpproductteams measu