主权财富基金的未来：未来十年的四大当务之急

Fueled by strong returns and state capital injections,SWFs have expanded faster than any other institutionalinvestor. Where do they go from here? By Grégory Garnier, Riccardo Molinari, Lise Abi Jaoude,Alexander De Mol, Usman Akhtar, Suvir Varma The Future of Sovereign Wealth Funds: Four I mperatives for the N ext D ecade At a Glance Over the past decade, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have expanded assets under management(AUM) faster than any other institutional investor, achieving a CAGR over 10% from 2020–25. This growth trajectory is expected to continue through 2035, albeit under new dynamics. For the first time, Bain & Company surveyed SWF leaders about their priorities, including capital Our research sample covered 50% of addressable SWF AUM—and revealed four imperatives for Executive summary Over the past decade, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have become pillars of global capital markets.Fueled by strong portfolio returns and steady state capital injections, SWFs have expanded faster than That trajectory is expected to continue, with SWFs projected to reach $30 trillion in assets undermanagement (AUM) by 2035. However, the roadmap for growth is changing. The conditions that enabled historical growth are shifting, unsettled by higher interest rates andincreasing volatility in hydrocarbon revenues. The effects of geopolitical fragmentation, technological For the first time, Bain & Company surveyed leaders from eight SWFs to understand their priorities andhow they are operating under pressure. While industry terminology varies, in our research, “SWFs”describe investors and investment vehicles owned by sovereign entities or nations. Our samplerepresented half of addressable SWF AUM. The responses reveal several trends, plus four imperatives for It’s impossible to discuss SWFs without acknowledging the regional and broader conflicts affectingthe Middle East. While responses in this report reflect conditions at the time (late 2025 and early 2026),they are not shortsighted. Investing is inherently a long game. As of this writing, we have no evidence thatthe long-term priorities of SWFs have changed. If anything, current events have sharpened their focuson supply chain resilience and security, the diversification of strategic partnerships (notably with Asia), The Future of Sovereign Wealth Funds: Four I mperatives for the N ext D ecade The continued rise of SWFs In recent years, SWFs have expanded substantially, both in real terms and in their influence andsophistication. SWFs reached $15 trillion in AUM in 2025, reflecting a 10.3% CAGR—and outpacing everyother class of institutional investor(see Figure 1). The top 10 funds hold more than 75% of total wealth, concentrated in the Middle East (40%), Asia (40%), SWF growth was powered by two main sources: 75% came from traditional financial performance andportfolio returns, while the balance came from state capital injections. Notably, this growth profile differsfor funds that receive regular government support. For those entities, portfolio returns and state injections State injections included approximately $890 billion in budget surpluses, mostly from hydrocarbonrevenues. State asset transfers were also significant ($480 billion) and included the transfer of SaudiAramco shares into the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and state-owned enterprise (SOE) transfers intoAbu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company (ADQ)—assets which were recently transferred to L’Imad, a The Future of Sovereign Wealth Funds: Four I mperatives for the N ext D ecade Across the board, dividend distribution and borrowing have remained relatively limited, allowing SWFs to And that trajectory isn’t slowing. AUM is expected to reach $30 trillion by 2035, continuing to grow at an8%–9% CAGR. But the roadmap is likely to look different based on a fund’s archetype. Defining characteristics of SWFs SWFs are defined by unique combinations of mandate, asset allocation, and capital deployment. Return-focused vs. dual-mandate funds All SWFs are expected to meet return thresholds. Based on our research, more than 60% of SWFs targetannual returns exceeding 6%–8% over the next five years. However, each fund also has a specific raisond’être—a purpose that falls somewhere between purely financial motivations and national objectives. •Financial-return fundsare focused on delivering stable, risk-adjusted returns. The Government ofSingapore Investment Corporation (GIC), the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), and NorgesBank Investment Management (NBIM) fit here, with mandates to preserve and enhance their •Dual-mandate funds,such as the PIF, combine financial discipline with national development. Thisis often achieved through SOEs that anchor value creation. For example, Mubadala co-owns EmiratesGlobal Aluminium to drive non-oil and gas exports, while Temasek holds Singtel to advanceSingapore’s telecommunications industry and digital infrastructure. These funds also seed new About h