海湾合作委员会多样化：外国投资和主权财富基金的作用

Gulf Cooperation CouncilDiversification: The Roleof Foreign Investmentsand Sovereign WealthFunds Yevgeniya Korniyenko and Weining Xin WP/25/174 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025SEP IMF Working Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Gulf Cooperation Council Diversification: The Role of Foreign Investments and Sovereign WealthFundsPrepared by Yevgeniya Korniyenko and Weining Xin* Authorized for distribution by Amine MatiSeptember2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper investigates the role of cross-border investments, including by Sovereign WealthFunds (SWFs), in driving economic growth and diversification of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.Utilizing novel deal-level datasets, we analyze GCC cross-border investment portfolios across variousdimensions such as time, geography, and industry. We show that recent years have witnessed an increase inGCC cross-border investments. While the geographic distribution of these investments remains diverse andbalanced across different regions, both inward and outward investments are increasingly directed towards theservices sector. The empirical results demonstrate a significant positive relationship between both cross-borderinward and domestic investments on GCC real non-hydrocarbon GDP. Notably, the medium-term increase inreal non-hydrocarbon GDP resulting from inward investments is three times larger than that from domesticinvestments. This amplification could be explained by increased inward investments in high-growth servicessectors. Although domestic investments, including by SWFs, are contributing to the GCC economictransformation, their efficiency could be further enhanced by focusing on strategic partnerships withinternational investors and fostering a more transparent and competitive business environment. Recent shift inGCC investments in renewable and clean energy projects will further support diversification efforts. Gulf Cooperation CouncilDiversification: The Role ofForeign Investments andSovereign Wealth Funds Prepared by Yevgeniya Korniyenko and Weining Xin Contents I.Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 5II.Literature Review................................................................................................................................... 9III.Data....................................................................................................................................................... 12IV.Empirical Methodology ........................................................................................................................14V.Results.................................................................................................................................................. 15V.A.Stylized Facts........................................................................................................................................16V.B.Empirical Results ................................................................................................................................19VI.Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 23References ......................................................................................................................................................... 26Appendices. Tables and Figures ......................................................................................................................29Table I: Summary Statistics .................................................................................................................................29Figure I: GCC Aggregate: Evolution of Inward Investment, in Percent of GDP .................................................. 30Figure II: GCC Individual Countries: Evolution of Inward Investment, in Percent of GDP .................................. 31Figure III: Source Region and Target Industry of GCC Inward Investment......................................................... 32Figure IV: GCC Aggregate: Evolution of Inward Investment, in Percent of GDP................................................ 33Figure V: GCC Individual Countries: Evolution of Outward Investment, in Percent of GDP ............................... 34Figure VI: Target Region and Target I