海湾合作委员会多样化：外国投资和主权财富基金的作用（英）

Gulf Cooperation CouncilDiversification: The Role Yevgeniya Korniyenko and Weining Xin WP/25/174 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025SEP IMF Working Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Authorized for distribution by Amine Mati IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper investigates the role of cross-border investments, including by Sovereign WealthFunds (SWFs), in driving economic growth and diversification of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.Utilizing novel deal-level datasets, we analyze GCC cross-border investment portfolios across variousdimensions such as time, geography, and industry. We show that recent years have witnessed an increase inGCC cross-border investments. While the geographic distribution of these investments remains diverse andbalanced across different regions, both inward and outward investments are increasingly directed towards theservices sector. The empirical results demonstrate a significant positive relationship between both cross-border WORKING PAPERS Gulf Cooperation CouncilDiversification: The Role of Prepared by Yevgeniya Korniyenko and Weining Xin Contents I.Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 5II.Literature Review................................................................................................................................... 9III.Data....................................................................................................................................................... 12IV.Empirical Methodology ........................................................................................................................14 References ......................................................................................................................................................... 26 Table I: Summary Statistics .................................................................................................................................29Figure I: GCC Aggregate: Evolution of Inward Investment, in Percent of GDP .................................................. 30Figure II: GCC Individual Countries: Evolution of Inward Investment, in Percent of GDP .................................. 31Figure III: Source Region and Target Industry of GCC Inward Investment......................................................... 32Figure IV: GCC Aggregate: Evolution of Inward Investment, in Percent of GDP................................................ 33Figure V: GCC Individual Countries: Evolution of Outward Investment, in Percent of GDP ............................... 34Figure VI: Target Region and Target Industry of GCC Outward Investment ...................................................... 35Figure VII: GCC Aggregate: Evolution of SWFs Outward Investment, in Percent of GDP ................................. 36Figure VIII: GCC Individual Countries: Evolution of SWFs Outward Investment, in Percent of GDP ................. 37 Figure IX: GCC Aggregate: Evolution of SWFs Outward Investment, in Percent of Total Outward Investmnet. 38Figure X: GCC Individual Countries: Evolution of SWFs Outward Investment, in Percent of Total OutwardInvestment… ....................................................................................................................................................... 39Figure XI: Target Region and Target Industry of GCC SWFs Outward Investment............................................ 40Figure XII: GCC Greenfield Investment .............................................................................................................. 41Figure XIII: Local Projections - GCC Overall Inward, Outward, and Domestic Investment................................. 42Figure XIV: Local Projections - GCC SWFs Outward, and Domestic Investment............................................... 43Figure XV: GCC Inward Investment and Diversification ..................................................................................... 44Figure XVI: GCC Outward Investment and Diversification.................................................................................. 45Table II: Local Projections - GCC Inward Investment ......................................................................................... 46 IIntroduction Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are actively diversifying their economiesacross output, export, and revenue dimensions, in line with their national develop-ment strategies and global decarbonization objectives. Despite this momentum, chal- In this context, the region’s subs