黑色建材月报：安全整治加码，双焦供需偏紧

市场分析 期货方面：截止月末收盘，焦炭主力合约（J2609）收1903元/吨，月环比上涨3.31%。焦煤主力合约（JM2609）收1285.5元/吨，与上月持平环比。 供给方面：Mysteel统计523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为71.5%，环比减7.2%。原煤日均产量159.9万吨，环比减16.2万吨，原煤库存484.9万吨，环比减4.3万吨，精煤日均产量69.2万吨，环比减3.3万吨，精煤库存198.1万吨，环比减10.0万吨。 需求方面：根据Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率83.94%，环比上周减少0.20个百分点，同比去年增加0.38个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用率90.24%，环比上周减少0.11个百分点，同比去年减少0.41个百分点；钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比上周减少3.03个百分点，同比去年增加0.44个百分点；日均铁水产量240.72万吨，环比上周减少0.28万吨，同比去年减少1.09万吨。 库存方面：247家钢厂样本焦炭库存为699.6万吨，较前一周下降0.3万吨，焦炭可用天数为12.6天。炼焦煤独立焦化全样本库存1157万吨，较此前一周增加46.8万吨，焦煤可用天数为13.3天，较上周增加0.6天。 供需与逻辑：焦炭方面，上周铁水产量持续升高，钢厂对于原料采购积极性较强，加上成本端支持较强，短期焦炭供需结构持续偏紧。本次山西煤矿事故带来持续性影响，区域安全整治加码，高瓦斯、煤与瓦斯突出矿井与民营中小煤矿成为监管重点，行业生产端约束加剧。焦煤短期供给量将受制于安监强度与整治周期，中长期供给格局则由表外产能清理进度主导。综合判断，焦煤焦炭市场短期供需格局趋紧，市场预计延续偏强运行。 策略 山西煤矿事故带来持续性影响，区域安全整治加码，高瓦斯、煤与瓦斯突出矿井与民营中小煤矿成为监管重点，行业生产端约束加剧。焦煤短期供给量将受制于安监强度与整治周期，中长期供给格局则由表外产能清理进度主导。综合判断，焦煤焦炭市场短期供需格局趋紧，市场预计延续偏强运行。 焦炭方面：震荡偏强焦煤方面：震荡偏强跨品种：多焦煤空铁矿期现：无期权：无 风险 宏观政策、钢厂利润、焦化利润、成材需求、煤炭供给、基差风险等。 图表 图1：山西中硫煤出厂价............................................................................................................................................................3图2：沙河驿蒙煤5#自提价........................................................................................................................................................3图3：焦煤主力合约收盘价........................................................................................................................................................3图4：焦煤01-05月间差...............................................................................................................................................................3图5：山西中硫煤-焦煤主力合约基差.......................................................................................................................................3图6：蒙煤5#-焦煤主力合约基差...............................................................................................................................................3图7：523家样本矿山原煤月度日均产量..................................................................................................................................4图8：523家样本矿山精煤月度日均产量..................................................................................................................................4图9：110家样本洗煤厂精煤月度日均产量...............................................................................................................................4图10：焦煤月度进口量..............................................................................................................................................................4图11：蒙古焦煤月度进口量......................................................................................................................................................4图12：美国焦煤月度进口量......................................................................................................................................................4图13：澳大利亚焦煤月度进口量..............................................................................................................................................5图14：加拿大焦煤月度进口量..................................................................................................................................................5图15：俄罗斯焦煤月度进口量..................................................................................................................................................5图16：日照港准一级焦炭出库价..............................................................................................................................................5图17：吕梁准一级焦炭价格......................................................................................................................................................6图18：独立焦化企业吨焦平均利润月度周均..........................................................................................................................6图19：焦炭主力合约收盘价......................................................................................................................................................6图20：焦炭01-05月间差.............................................................................................................................................................6图21：日照港准一级焦炭-焦炭主力合约基差.........................................................................................................................6图22：吕梁准一级焦炭-焦炭主力合约基差.............................................................................................................................6图23：全样本独立焦化企业日均产量......................................................................................................................................7图24：焦炭：247家钢铁企业焦炭日均产量............................................................................................................................7图25：247家钢铁企业生铁月度日均产量................................................................................................................................7图26：焦炭月度出口量.......................................................................................................